NBA Picks

Tyler Herro was the primary ball-handler and offensive hub in his season debut against the Washington Wizards.

He made 41 passes and led the team with 12 potential assists. 

The Bulls just allowed seven assists to Immanuel Quickly in 28 minutes, and five to Jamal Shead in just 15 minutes.

Likely to play 30+ minutes, Herro should have ample opportunity to make the Bulls pay with his playmaking.

White drained a trio of 3-pointers in the season-opening loss to the Pistons and drained at least that many in three of his four regular-season meetings with the Knicks last season. He also averaged 2.9 made 3s at home last regular-season and postseason and has 3 or more 3s in each of the Celtics' last seven games against the Knicks at TD Garden.

The Atlanta Hawks impressed with a win in Orlando, but I'll back Charlotte at 45% in its home opener. The Hornets have offensive limitations without Coby White and Kon Knueppel, but Naz Reid and Grayson Allen can provide the shooting and spacing to create driving lanes against Onyeka Okongwu. Brandon Miller faces a tough matchup against Atlanta's point-of-attack defense, but I trust Charlotte's shooters to deliver.

The Toronto Raptors’ 13-4 record straight up (11-5-1 against the spread) versus the Washington Wizards across their last 17 meetings since 2021 already suggests that Friday’s next encounter will likely go in the favor of the away side.

Keep in mind, however, that none of those games featured the likes of superstars Anthony Davis and Trae Young.

Nonetheless, Toronto’s commanding defensive pressure should be enough to eke out a cover at -7.5 points on the road, which is a number I'd take up to -9.5. It just held the Chicago Bulls, albeit a depleted and gastrointestinal illness-ridden Bulls, to 92 points en route to a 43-point blowout on Wednesday.

The vibes are strong for the Wizards after winning their first game of a season since 2022, but the Raptors are a cold dose of reality ready to rain on their parade. 

This feels like an overreaction to one game. Minnesota dismantled Miami, while Orlando lost at home to Atlanta, and now the Timberwolves are 54% road favorites? I price the Magic as 54% favorites, making Orlando an easy buy at Polymarket's current price. Jalen Suggs' aggressive defense and Franz Wagner's length give Orlando options to disrupt LaMelo Ball's playmaking, while the Magic have the size and individual defenders to challenge both Ball and Anthony Edwards.

Since 2022-23, Haliburton has played 199 games, averaging 10.1 assists and handing out 10+ in 115 of them. He’s been even better at home, averaging 10.6 dimes and finishing with 10+ in 66 of 104 contests, good for a 63.5% hit rate.

Facing Dallas’ Bottom-5 ranked defense and playing at home, Haliburton should cash the Over, and I’ll trade this one to 55%.

The Pistons shouldn't be underdogs here. I price Detroit closer to 55% favorites, creating value on a healthy team that won 60 games and claimed the East's No. 1 seed last season. Isaiah Joe and John Collins give Cade Cunningham more options against Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Detroit added shooting for matchups like this, while Duncan Robinson gets a chance at revenge against his former team.

Utah's big lineup of Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jaxson Hayes presents an interesting matchup against a Pelicans offense built around Zion Williamson's downhill scoring. New Orleans also limited Herb Jones, its best perimeter defender, in the opener. That decision should benefit Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson. As a Jazz backer, I'd welcome another game with Jones seeing limited minutes.

Perhaps by default due to a lack of viable options surrounding him, former Laker and current Clipper Rui Hachimura is being thrust into a No. 2 role behind Garland that he's not well equipped to have.

His 13 shot attempts against Sacramento were the second-most on the Clippers, but Hachimura only converted three in 32 minutes for 10 total points.

He'll need to bounce back in a major way here to go Over this prop and score at least 18 points. In his last season with the Lakers, though, the 6-foot-8 forward only recorded lines of 18 points or more in 13.2% of his games played. 

This number is just too big, so try not to fall in love with the mindset that the Clippers have to feed Hachimura looks out of necessity, when that roster will take whatever it can get from whomever it can get it from.  

Ty Jerome erupted for 45 points on incredible efficiency in the opener and now faces his former team. I see the Warriors as a team in decline, with questions about heavy minutes for Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, especially without Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis. Memphis is young and hungry, and at 43%, the Grizzlies are my side in this matchup.

If 74% feels too expensive for Portland, I disagree. I price the Trail Blazers closer to 81% favorites against Sacramento. Portland has the edge across the board, with Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, and Scoot Henderson capable of relentlessly attacking the Kings' weak perimeter defense. Meanwhile, I expect Domantas Sabonis to struggle against Donovan Clingan's interior presence. Give me Portland on the moneyline.