Philadelphia @ Houston Picks & Props

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge today. Max Kepler has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 94.2-mph in the last 14 days. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.9°, Max Kepler has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21.5° mark in the past two weeks' worth of games. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has been unlucky this year. His .303 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .335.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage today. Bryson Stott has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Bryson Stott has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 5% seasonal rate to 25% over the past 7 days. Over the past week, Bryson Stott's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.1-mph over the course of the season to 103.9-mph of late.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky this year, putting up a .297 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .034 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Alec Bohm has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 93.2-mph. Using Statcast metrics, Alec Bohm is in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .291. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Alec Bohm has posted a .285 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Minute Maid Park. In the past week, Otto Kemp's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 22.2%. Otto Kemp has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 94.2-mph in the past 7 days. In the past 7 days, Otto Kemp's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. The shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Minute Maid Park. Nick Castellanos has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 9.3% seasonal rate to 22.6% in the past two weeks. Over the last two weeks, Nick Castellanos's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph recently.

When assessing his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trea Turner is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. The shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Minute Maid Park. Trea Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 15.9% to 19.1%. Trea Turner has put up a .342 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 79th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. Isaac Paredes will have the handedness advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Isaac Paredes are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 13th-worst out of every team today.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching. Typically, batters like Jeremy Pena who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cristopher Sanchez. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 12.3% to 9.1%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jeremy Pena's true offensive skill to be a .327, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .052 deviation between that mark and his actual .379 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Mauricio Dubon will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 13th-worst out of every team today. Mauricio Dubon will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 8.4°, Mauricio Dubon has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 32.8° figure in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Kyle Schwarber will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown today. Kyle Schwarber has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 94.2-mph mark. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle this season (19.6°) is a significant increase over his 14.9° angle last season.

Jake Meyers's batting average talent is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Jake Meyers will have an edge in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 13th-worst out of every team today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Yainer Diaz will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 13th-worst out of every team today. Yainer Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the last week, Yainer Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.2-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Jose Altuve will have the upper hand today. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 13th-worst out of every team today.

As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Cooper Hummel will get to bat from his better side against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. Cooper Hummel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 13th-worst out of every team today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Cooper Hummel will hold that advantage in today's game. The standard deviation of Cooper Hummel's launch angle has been very consistent lately (45.8° in the past week's worth of games), which is an indicator of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 4th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his BABIP skill. Brandon Marsh will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Brown in today's game. Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Brandon Marsh has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 93.9-mph. Over the past week, Brandon Marsh's 46.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Christian Walker will have an advantage today. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 13th-worst out of every team today. Christian Walker will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Christian Walker's launch angle lately (24.4° in the last two weeks) is significantly better than his 17.8° seasonal mark.