MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 17, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sun, May 17 • 12:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Yandy Diaz logo
Yandy Diaz u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
Projection 0.96
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #4 field in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Eury Perez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz today.. Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 93.2-mph EV last season has dropped off to 91.1-mph.. Yandy Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 46.8% to 38.1%.
Total Bases
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.95
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's game.. In terms of power, Junior Caminero finds himself in the 94th percentile, having averaged 36.3 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Sun, May 17 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jarren Duran logo
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+143)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jarren Duran ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 6th-best park in baseball for left-handed BABIP.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela logo
Ceddanne Rafaela o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 ballpark in the majors for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sun, May 17 • 1:35 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI (+110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Zack Wheeler against Paul Skenes is the best pitching duel on the entire slate. Pittsburgh is the home favorite at -127, but Wheeler is one of the premier arms in the National League, and the Phillies carry more offensive firepower. Getting plus money on a Wheeler start against any opponent is worth taking seriously.

Total Bases
Bryce Harper logo
Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryce Harper projects as the 9th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. PNC Park profiles as the #2 ballpark in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes in today's game.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sun, May 17 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Jose Tena logo
Jose Tena u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 40 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jose Tena is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today's game.. Nationals Park grades out as the #28 ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. From last year to this one, Jose Tena's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.2% to 11.3%.
Total Bases
James Wood logo
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.09
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 87°.. James Wood will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Young in today's game.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ New York Mets logo NYM Sun, May 17 • 1:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Trent Grisham logo
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.. Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage over Freddy Peralta in today's game.
Total Bases
Jazz Chisholm Jr. logo
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Sun, May 17 • 1:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Will Benson logo
Will Benson u1.5 Total Bases (-235)
Projection 0.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all major league stadiums, the 4th-highest fence height (on average) are at Progressive Field.. In today's matchup, Will Benson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.1% rate (81st percentile).. Will Benson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. From last season to this one, Will Benson's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 98.5 mph to 92 mph.. Sporting a .287 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Will Benson is positioned in the 19th percentile.
Total Bases
Sal Stewart logo
Sal Stewart u1.5 Total Bases (-153)
Projection 0.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all major league stadiums, the 4th-highest fence height (on average) are at Progressive Field.. Hitting from the same side that Gavin Williams throws from, Sal Stewart faces a tough challenge today.. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Sal Stewart in today's matchup.. Checking in at the 18th percentile, Sal Stewart has put up a .246 BABIP this year.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sun, May 17 • 1:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Detroit Tigers logo DET (+115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Jack Flaherty at home against Kevin Gausman is a quality pitching matchup, but Detroit gets the nod. Both clubs are sitting right around .500, and neither has been dominant recently, but the Tigers' bullpen has been sharper over the last two weeks. Home field at better than even money is a good value.

Total Hits
Wenceel Perez logo
Wenceel Perez u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wenceel Perez in the 17th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Wenceel Perez is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Wenceel Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Wenceel Perez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 48.9% to 36.8%.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sun, May 17 • 2:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kody Clemens logo
Kody Clemens o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.39
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Kody Clemens ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Kody Clemens will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Kody Clemens's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 16.9% to 23.5%.
Total Bases
William Contreras logo
William Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. William Contreras is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #7 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Extreme groundball hitters like William Contreras generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Sun, May 17 • 2:10 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Munetaka Murakami logo Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total Home Runs (+338)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Munetaka Murakami is tied for first in hard hit percentage (61.5%), and the White Sox rookie will get plenty of good pitches to hit this afternoon.

Cubs starter Colin Rea has allowed three dingers over his last two outings, while the Cubs pen has already surrendered 23 home runs this season.

Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki logo
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.95
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 17th-best batter in MLB.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #5 field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league.. Using Statcast data, Seiya Suzuki grades out in the 97th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .384.
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Houston Astros logo HOU Sun, May 17 • 2:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jake Burger logo
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+159)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Jake Burger ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for homers.. Checking in at the 90th percentile, the hardest ball Jake Burger has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.. Power-wise, Jake Burger is ranked in the 82nd percentile, having hit 26.1 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year.
Total Bases
Corey Seager logo
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.91
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 13th-best batter in the league.. Corey Seager is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for homers.. Hitting from the opposite that Peter Lambert throws from, Corey Seager will have the upper hand in today's game.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Corey Seager is in the 97th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .380.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sun, May 17 • 2:15 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 8 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Jordan Walker logo Jordan Walker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+660)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Jordan Walker has gone deep in two of his last three games while batting .358 so far in May.

The 6-foot-6 outfielder has the fifth-highest average exit velocity in baseball (94.8 mph), so it’s no surprise that he’s piling up the homers.

Total Hits
Victor Scott II logo
Victor Scott II u0.5 Total Hits (+115)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Victor Scott II ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Victor Scott II is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today's game.. In today's matchup, Victor Scott II is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.8% rate (91st percentile).. Extreme flyball batters like Victor Scott II tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams in action today.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Sun, May 17 • 3:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Projection 2.38
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Coors Field projects as the #1 field in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an advantage today.
Total Bases
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Adrian Del Castillo o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Coors Field projects as the #1 field in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Adrian Del Castillo will have an edge in today's matchup.. Adrian Del Castillo has a ton of pop (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen struggles to strike batters out (13th percentile K%) — great news for Del Castillo.. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Sun, May 17 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Harrison Bader logo
Harrison Bader o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best park in the league for run-scoring.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. The weather report calls for the best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 22.1-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Harrison Bader will hold the platoon advantage against Jeffrey Springs in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Lawrence Butler logo
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+163)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Lawrence Butler ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best park in the league for run-scoring.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. The weather report calls for the best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 23.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Sun, May 17 • 4:07 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Max Muncy logo Max Muncy o0.5 Total Home Runs (+361)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Max Muncy has been crushing the baseball, ranking 11th in the majors in hard hit percentage and eighth in barrels per plate appearance percentage.

Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez is set to make his first appearance in the majors since July 2024, while their bullpen ranks third last in ERA with 22 homers allowed.

Total
Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Angels logo o9.5 (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Eric Rosales image
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst

The Over has cashed in seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Dodgers and Angels.

View 13 Picks
San Diego Padres logo SD @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Sun, May 17 • 7:20 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
J.P. Crawford logo
J.P. Crawford u1.5 Total Bases (-189)
Projection 0.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
J.P. Crawford is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.. T-Mobile Park ranks as the #29 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to worse offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the best pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.. J.P. Crawford's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 19% to 12.5%.
Total Bases
Luke Raley logo
Luke Raley o1.5 Total Bases (+229)
Projection 1.3
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Luke Raley ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Luke Raley has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Among all parks, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage over Lucas Giolito in today's game.. Luke Raley pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 2 Computer Picks
Total
Milwaukee Brewers logo St. Louis Cardinals logo u8.0 (-120)
Pick made: 11 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.

Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL (-110)
Pick made: 11 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.

Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.

View 4 Picks

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