MLB Picks

Junior Caminero enters as one of baseball's hottest power hitters after launching five home runs over his last seven games. His 61.9% hard-hit rate and 23.8% barrel rate highlight the quality of his contact, making the rookie a dangerous matchup for Arizona starter Jose Cabrera in just his second MLB appearance.

Blaze Alexander is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.. This year, Blaze Alexander has been pulled from the game early in 25% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.. Blaze Alexander's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, falling from 61.4% on the season to 52.2% in the last two weeks' worth of games.. Blaze Alexander has been lucky this year, putting up a .345 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .038 disparity.. When it comes to plate discipline, Blaze Alexander's talent is quite bad, sporting a 3.44 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 20th percentile.

David Peterson has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts. Things won’t get any easier for him against the Milwaukee Brewers, who sit third in runs scored on home soil this season.

Chicago's bullpen also ranks 29th in FIP in June. The Brewers should score early and often in this one, doing the heavy lifting necessary to push this Over the total.

Bet to -115.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits.. This game is forecasted to have the 4th-most humidity on the slate (76%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Colt Emerson will hold the platoon advantage against Slade Cecconi in today's matchup.

Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, sitting in the bottom percentile in pitching run value and second percentile in xBA (.297).

The right-hander relies heavily on his four-seamer, while Buxton is batting a team-leading .364 against the four-seamer from righties, with an insane .891 SLG – the ninth-best mark in MLB.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Freddie Freeman's underlying metrics point toward another long ball, as he enters with a 73.3% hard-hit rate, .286 ISO, and 16.3-degree launch angle over his last six games. Randy Vasquez has consistently allowed hard contact lately, creating a favorable matchup for one of baseball's hottest hitters.

As it relates to his home run talent, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 24.2-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Casey Schmitt will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Casey Schmitt has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.9% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 7 days.

Shea Langeliers projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Shea Langeliers will have the handedness advantage against Reid Detmers in today's matchup.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.