MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 3, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sun, May 3 • 12:45 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 8 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+425)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

With another fastball thrower on the mound today, I’m inclined to keep riding the Okamoto train from my official home run pick today. He already has three home runs in this series, and owns a .600 slug-rate against the four-seamer with five of his team leading eight home runs this season coming off the fastball. 

 

Total Bases
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Kazuma Okamoto should see a healthy dose of four-seam fastballs today as it’s Joe Ryan’s most utilized pitch. The Jays slugger has had a lot of success against the four-seamer this year, sporting a .320 average with a .600 slug-rate against the pitch.

 

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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sun, May 3 • 1:35 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Aaron Judge logo Aaron Judge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+205)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Aaron Judge is coming off a vintage month of April, where he hit 10 dingers with a .659 slugging percentage.

The Yankees star will square up against Orioles starter Trey Gibson, who is making his MLB debut. Baltimore's bullpen has also been pretty shaky, giving up 17 home runs - tied for seventh most in the MLB.

Total Hits
Ben Rice logo
Ben Rice u0.5 Total Hits (+210)
Projection 0.85
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-coldest temperature on the slate today at 56°.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sun, May 3 • 1:35 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
William Contreras logo William Contreras o0.5 Total Home Runs (+540)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

William Contreras only has three homers this year (including one on Thursday), but he'll be able to pick on a brutal Nationals pitching staff today.

Starter Zack Littell has already allowed 13 homers, including 2+ in four straight outings, while the Nats have surrendered an MLB-worst 51 dingers.

Total Bases
CJ Abrams logo
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, CJ Abrams ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. CJ Abrams will hold the platoon advantage over Chad Patrick in today's matchup.. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage today.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Sun, May 3 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Marcelo Mayer logo
Marcelo Mayer u0.5 Total Hits (+131)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Marcelo Mayer is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the lowest level of all games on the slate today at 53°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).
Total Hits
Wilyer Abreu logo
Wilyer Abreu u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the lowest level of all games on the slate today at 53°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sun, May 3 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz logo
Oneil Cruz u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This contest is expected to have the most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe logo
Brandon Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This contest is expected to have the most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sun, May 3 • 1:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 97th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases
Willy Adames logo
Willy Adames u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Willy Adames has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Willy Adames in today's matchup.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Sun, May 3 • 1:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Kyle Stowers logo
Kyle Stowers u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.74
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Kyle Stowers will be at a big disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game.. Kyle Stowers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 80th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber logo
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Chris Paddack throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an edge in today's matchup.. Kyle Schwarber has strong power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Paddack has a pitch-to-contact profile (19th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sun, May 3 • 2:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Pedro Pages logo
Pedro Pages o1.5 Total Bases (+213)
Projection 1.43
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pedro Pages has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 16.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Justin Wrobleski throws from, Pedro Pages will have an advantage in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Jordan Walker logo
Jordan Walker u1.5 Total Bases (-158)
Projection 0.97
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Sun, May 3 • 2:20 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Gabriel Moreno logo
Gabriel Moreno u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.86
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-coldest temperature of all games on the slate at 58°.. Today, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.4% rate (97th percentile).. The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams in action today.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gabriel Moreno in today's matchup.
Total Hits
Ildemaro Vargas logo
Ildemaro Vargas u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.95
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 10th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-coldest temperature of all games on the slate at 58°.. The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams in action today.. Ildemaro Vargas will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Sun, May 3 • 3:10 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson logo Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+310)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Matt Olson has gone yard in two straight games, and four of his last six outings. He'll be batting out of Coors Field today, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors.

The Rockies have allowed 46 dingers already - the third most among all clubs - while starter Kyle Freeland has surrendered a homer in two straight games.

Total Hits
Jorge Mateo logo
Jorge Mateo u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 42 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jorge Mateo ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jorge Mateo is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hurlers.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies.. Jorge Mateo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Sun, May 3 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Daniel Schneemann logo
Daniel Schneemann o1.5 Total Bases (+186)
Projection 1.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 38 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Daniel Schneemann has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Civale throws from, Daniel Schneemann will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Athletics have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daniel Schneemann can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
Total Bases
Kyle Manzardo logo
Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Total Bases (+161)
Projection 1.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Civale throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an edge today.. Kyle Manzardo may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Athletics only has 1 same-handed RP.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Sun, May 3 • 4:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Nolan Schanuel logo
Nolan Schanuel u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Hits
Josh Lowe logo
Josh Lowe u0.5 Total Hits (+145)
Projection 0.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Josh Lowe is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.. Josh Lowe has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Sun, May 3 • 4:10 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Seattle Mariners logo SEA (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
Trevor Knapp image
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor

Luis Castillo has been a shell of his former self, but the Mariners right-hander should bounce back against a putrid Royals offense that is hitting just .205 off of him. Side with Seattle on Sunday afternoon. 

Total Bases
Jac Caglianone logo
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Jac Caglianone ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. This matchup is predicted to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Because of Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Jac Caglianone will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams in action today.
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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ San Diego Padres logo SD Sun, May 3 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Munetaka Murakami logo
Munetaka Murakami u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams in action today.. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.75
Best Odds
Pick made: 34 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 12th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Given Anthony Kay's large platoon split, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage today.
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sun, May 3 • 7:20 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Joc Pederson logo
Joc Pederson u0.5 Total Hits (+110)
Projection 0.51
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 7th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Batting from the opposite that Tyler Holton throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge in today's game.. Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Joc Pederson in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Kerry Carpenter logo
Kerry Carpenter o1.5 Total Bases (+186)
Projection 1.54
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Kerry Carpenter is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Kerry Carpenter will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Kerry Carpenter will hold that advantage today.
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