New York @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field profiles as the #28 park in baseball for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching. In today's matchup, Amed Rosario is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.7% rate (98th percentile). Amed Rosario's launch angle this season (2.9°) is a considerable dropoff from his 7.5° mark last season. Amed Rosario's 4.7% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) ranks in the 24th percentile this year.

Tropicana Field profiles as the #28 park in baseball for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching. In the last week, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 91.4 mph to 86.7 mph. Compared to his seasonal figure of 3.6°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-10.1°) in the past 14 days. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (-0.9°) is considerably lower than his 4.9° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jose Siri has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Jose Siri will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's game. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Rice in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Benjamin Rice is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest right field fences in MLB. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Benjamin Rice will have an advantage in today's matchup. Benjamin Rice has been hot lately, compiling a a 31.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) in the past week's worth of games.

Jose Caballero will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's matchup. Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Jose Caballero has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 5.9% to 16.7%. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 39.5% to 44.7%.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Randy Arozarena will have an advantage today. Randy Arozarena will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Randy Arozarena has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.2% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last two weeks.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in the league. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest right field fences in MLB. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Juan Soto will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Juan Soto tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Trent Grisham will have an edge in today's game. Trent Grisham has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 93-mph in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Alex Verdugo will have the upper hand today. Alex Verdugo has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo's launch angle recently (21.2° over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 10.3° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Gleyber Torres is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Gleyber Torres has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Gleyber Torres's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.7% up to 16.7%. In the last week's worth of games, Gleyber Torres's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 100.6-mph recently.

Alex Jackson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Alex Jackson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Jackson's true offensive talent to be a .272, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .146 gap between that mark and his actual .126 wOBA.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the majors. The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Carlos Rodon. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the past week, Taylor Walls's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.6% up to 10%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects DJ LeMahieu in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. DJ LeMahieu has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like DJ LeMahieu generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. In the past 7 days, DJ LeMahieu's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.1% up to 17.6%. DJ LeMahieu has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 91.8-mph.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Aaron Judge has posted a .462 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 100th percentile. Ranking in the 98th percentile, Aaron Judge has posted a .315 batting average this year.

Austin Wells will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Austin Wells has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. In the last week, Austin Wells's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 99.2-mph recently. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Austin Wells has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 28.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 15.9°. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) provides evidence that Austin Wells has had some very poor luck this year with his .216 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Volpe in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Anthony Volpe has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Utilizing Statcast data, Anthony Volpe ranks in the 76th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .267.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Isaac Paredes will have an advantage in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game. Isaac Paredes's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (22.4°) is considerably better than his 18° angle last season.