MLB Picks

Both Miami starter Sandy Alcantara and Pittsburgh righty Braxton Ashcraft have been sensational in this market this season and have combined to pitch 23 scoreless opening frames across 27 starts. Additionally, Alcantara's first-inning numbers (5.14 ERA with a .758 OPS allowed) are skewed because all eight runs he’s surrendered were across just three games. Ashcraft, meanwhile, checks in with an absolutely elite .169 batting average and .414 OPS allowed in the opening frame across his 21 career starts.

Mariners righty Bryce Miller has spun four consecutive scoreless first frames to start his 2026 campaign, and he also held opposing hitters to a modest .601 OPS across 18 opening innings last season. Seattle is in tough against Washington righty Zack Littell, too. He’s also fired four consecutive scoreless opening innings and has held opposing hitters to a lower .479 OPS across nine 2026 starts. Additionally, Littell has settled into a sterling groove with an overall 3.47 FIP across his past seven outings.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in the majors for run-scoring.. The 4th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

If Jack Flaherty is going to have any type of success on the mound, he needs a matchup against an aggressive lineup of right-handed hitters that chases bad pitches and strikes out at a high rate. That is the complete opposite of what he'll see from the Guardians, who can effectively stack the lineup with nine left-handed bats thanks to their collection of switch hitters. Not only does that diminish the effectiveness of Flaherty's slider as a put-away pitch, but the Guardians' lineup is built around high-contact hitters who work counts, foul off pitches, and consistently put the ball in play. That's a nightmare scenario for Flaherty, who is sporting a 4.74 BB/9 this season. The Guardians are trading as -120 favorites on the moneyline, but I price them closer to -145 in this spot.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 87th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Fenway Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Jarren Duran will have an edge in today's matchup.

Michael Harris II's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 86°.. Michael Harris II will hold the platoon advantage against Nolan McLean in today's game.. Michael Harris II hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. Cody Bellinger will have the handedness advantage against Trey Yesavage in today's game.. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Cody Bellinger pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 11th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Misiorowski has faced five teams sitting in the Top 10 in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. He has averaged 10.4 punchouts, 6.4 innings, and allowed just two runs…total. If Painter avoids a blowup, he will turn the ball over to the MLB’s best bullpen by xFIP since May 1. Bet to -130.

The Kansas City Royals should be the favorites in this matchup against the Houston Astros, which is why I'm hitting the button on the +101 price. I make the Royals closer to a -115 favorite in this spot. Tatsuya Imai's 6.03 BB/9 is a major concern, and those free passes provide a huge boost for a Royals offense that can sometimes struggle to score runs and generate power. Walks allow Kansas City to create offense through its speed, aggressive baserunning, and contact-oriented approach. The Royals' speed on the bases, led by Bobby Witt Jr., should also put pressure on Imai and potentially force him to lean more heavily on his fastball rather than his secondary pitches. If that happens, it could create opportunities for Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino to sit on fastballs and drive the ball with authority.

Kody Clemens finds himself in another premium boom spot tonight against Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy. The Twins outfielder owns an elite Batters-Box rating and draws a pitcher who has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season. Leahy carries a 7.75 xERA while allowing 60% hard contact, a 13.7% barrel rate, a .619 xSLG, and a .434 xwOBA to lefties. Clemens also boasts an 84.2% arsenal coverage rating against Leahy's pitch mix. Over his last 30 matchups against right-handed pitching, Clemens has posted a .379 average, .862 slugging percentage, 1.262 OPS, and elite hard hit metrics. RUN IT BACK!

Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Angel Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 6th-best of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane McClanahan throws from, Mike Trout will have an edge in today's game.

Hunter Goodman projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Las Vegas Ballpark as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Las Vegas Ballpark sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest weather on the slate at 100°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Michael Busch is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.4-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for batters.. Michael Busch will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Landen Roupp today.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.