MLB Picks

Recent history and current form both point toward a low-scoring matchup in Pittsburgh. Three of the last four meetings between these clubs have stayed Under, while both starters are trending positively. Aaron Nola has settled down lately, and Braxton Ashcraft continues to pitch consistently. With both bullpens also performing better recently, runs could be limited tonight.

Taylor Ward continues to produce for the Orioles, scoring 28 runs through 43 games while heating up at the plate recently. He’s crossed home in back-to-back contests and now faces Zack Littell, who owns a 6.94 ERA. Ward has crushed Littell historically, going 4-for-8 with two homers and three RBI against him.

Tanner Bibee has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of five home starts this season. The Reds continue to struggle offensively on the road, ranking in the bottom third of MLB in both runs and OPS, which has contributed to an eight-game road skid. Cleveland has also thrived against left-handed starters with an 11-3 record, while Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks dead last in both ERA and FIP since May 1.

Cam Schlittler has quickly become one of the Yankees’ most reliable starters, posting a stellar 1.35 ERA with 59 strikeouts in 53.1 innings. He’s struck out six or more batters in two of his last four starts and now faces a struggling Mets lineup. Schlittler’s dominant 0.98 road ERA makes this matchup even more appealing.

Edward Cabrera enters tonight’s matchup in strong strikeout form, clearing this line in three straight starts while piling up 43 punchouts in 46.1 innings overall. The White Sox are one of baseball’s most strikeout-prone teams, ranking near the bottom of MLB in contact metrics, giving Cabrera another favorable spot to rack up Ks.

Heliot Ramos and the San Francisco Giants have a great home run matchup today at Sutter Health Park with slight winds blowing out to right field and Aaron Civale on the mound. The Athletics starter gives up fast swings and loud contact. His expected metrics suggest that shiny ERA isn’t built to last. He also owns one of the lower ground-ball rates in baseball, and that 0.86 HR/9 feels more likely to climb toward his career mark of 1.30. Like many pitchers, his numbers in Sacramento are also much worse than they are on the road. Ramos projects as the best +EV home run play on the board today, according to the projections at Covers. The fair price for the middle-of-the-order bat is around +330, and he’ll also get a chance to attack an Athletics bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks and has been heavily used this week. Outside of the Coors Field game, this matchup carries the biggest total on the board. Bombs away, boys.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.