MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 1, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Wed, Jul 1 • 12:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o1.5 Total Bases (+143)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 57 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as the league's 16th-best home run batter.. Colson Montgomery is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 96°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Colson Montgomery will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total RBIs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 57 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as the league's 16th-best home run batter.. Colson Montgomery is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 96°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Colson Montgomery will have the upper hand in today's game.
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Wed, Jul 1 • 1:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jake Burger logo
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Burger is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in the majors for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Jake Burger will have an edge today.
Total RBIs
Travis Bazzana logo
Travis Bazzana o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.41
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Travis Bazzana is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Travis Bazzana will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Travis Bazzana's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph in recent games.. With a 1.7 K/BB rate this year, Travis Bazzana has shown impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 77th percentile.
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Washington Nationals logo WAS @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Curtis Mead logo
Curtis Mead o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Curtis Mead ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Curtis Mead is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Fenway Park projects as the #4 ballpark in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total RBIs
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Fenway Park projects as the #4 ballpark in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.1-mph in this game, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.
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Detroit Tigers logo DET @ New York Yankees logo NYY Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Riley Greene logo
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+111)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Yankee Stadium has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games today at 94°.. Given Will Warren's large platoon split, Riley Greene will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.
Total Bases
Ben Rice logo
Ben Rice o1.5 Total Bases (-118)
Projection 2.34
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ben Rice ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium has the 5th-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games today at 94°.. Ben Rice will have the handedness advantage against Troy Melton in today's game.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Wed, Jul 1 • 2:20 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Dansby Swanson logo
Dansby Swanson o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most suitable for hitting on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.9-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.. Dansby Swanson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Michael Busch logo
Michael Busch o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.05
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Michael Busch ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Michael Busch is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most suitable for hitting on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.9-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Michael Busch will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Wed, Jul 1 • 3:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Carson Benge logo
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 21 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Carson Benge is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for LHB home runs.. In MLB, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 8th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez logo
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+215)
Projection 1.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best venue in the game for righty home runs.. In MLB, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 8th-shallowest.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Wed, Jul 1 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Endy Rodriguez logo
Endy Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+171)
Projection 1.48
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for home runs.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.8-mph in this contest, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Endy Rodriguez will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Zack Wheeler) in today's matchup.. Over the past two weeks, Endy Rodriguez's 57.9% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.2%.
Total RBIs
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
Projection 0.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ryan O'Hearn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.8-mph in this contest, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Because of Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, Ryan O'Hearn will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Wed, Jul 1 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt logo
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. JJ Wetherholt is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. The #10 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. JJ Wetherholt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Reynaldo Lopez today.
Total Bases
Alec Burleson logo
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.86
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #10 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. The 3rd-shallowest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Wed, Jul 1 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Salvador Perez logo
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+122)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #5 stadium in the league for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Salvador Perez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane McClanahan in today's game.. Bats such as Salvador Perez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shane McClanahan who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total Hits
Tyler Tolbert logo
Tyler Tolbert u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.66
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Tolbert in the 5th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Tyler Tolbert is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup projects the 5th-lowest temperature of all games on the slate today at 91°.. Tyler Tolbert has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Tyler Tolbert tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane McClanahan.
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Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Houston Astros logo HOU Wed, Jul 1 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Tristan Gray logo
Tristan Gray u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.62
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Tristan Gray ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Tristan Gray is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. 19% of the time that Tristan Gray has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the worst park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters.. The league's 3rd-highest fence height (on average) can be found at Minute Maid Park.
Total Bases
Josh Bell logo
Josh Bell o1.5 Total Bases (+153)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Josh Bell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Josh Bell will get to bat from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Tatsuya Imai) in today's game.. The Houston Astros outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team in action today.. Posting a .349 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Josh Bell grades out in the 83rd percentile for hitting ability.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Wed, Jul 1 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
JJ Bleday logo
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
JJ Bleday is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. American Family Field grades out as the #9 field in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. JJ Bleday's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 18.4% to 22.1%.
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz logo
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The #9 park in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Among all stadiums, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Wed, Jul 1 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar logo
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best stadium in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Ezequiel Tovar will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ezequiel Tovar's true offensive talent to be a .294, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 disparity between that mark and his actual .256 wOBA.. By putting up a .271 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ezequiel Tovar is ranked in the 77th percentile.
Total Bases
Kyle Karros logo
Kyle Karros o1.5 Total Bases (+176)
Projection 1.48
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Karros's BABIP ability is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best stadium in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Kyle Karros will hold that advantage today.. Kyle Karros has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.6% seasonal rate to 13.3% over the last two weeks.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Andy Pages logo
Andy Pages o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.28
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Andy Pages is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #2 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Freddie Freeman logo
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.35
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Freddie Freeman ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the majors.. Freddie Freeman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #2 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+148)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage over Zac Gallen in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Casey Schmitt logo
Casey Schmitt o0.5 Total RBIs (+147)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The #2 park in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Casey Schmitt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 15.5% to 19.2%.. Casey Schmitt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, rising from 19.2% on the season to 23.5% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Brice Turang logo
Brice Turang o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.52
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Brice Turang is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Brice Turang will have an edge today.. Brice Turang has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last season's 94-mph average.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson logo
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
Projection 0.56
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Sproat throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 9 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 19 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 12 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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