MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 1, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

AZ @

CHC Fri, May 1 • 2:20 PM ET

5 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Moises Ballesteros u0.5 Total Hits (+182)

Projection 0.74

Best Odds

u0.5 +182

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +134

u0.5 +182

u0.5 +149

u0.5 +145

This year, Moises Ballesteros has been pinch hit for in 56% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.. Wrigley Field ranks as the #30 field in the league for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the coldest temperature of the day at 44°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the best of the day for mound aces.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Moises Ballesteros's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 4.8%.

+182 at bet365

Total Hits

Michael Busch u0.5 Total Hits (+132)

Projection 0.67

Best Odds

u0.5 +132

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +104

u0.5 +132

u0.5 +109

u0.5 +115

Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.. When starting against a northpaw this year, Michael Busch has been pinch hit for 12% of the time.. Wrigley Field ranks as the #30 field in the league for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the coldest temperature of the day at 44°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the best of the day for mound aces.

+132 at bet365

View 5 Picks

$Texas Rangers logo$ TEX @

DET Fri, May 1 • 6:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Evan Carter o1.5 Total Bases (+270)

Projection 1.43

Best Odds

o1.5 +270

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +208

o1.5 +270

o1.5 +200

o1.5 +210

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Evan Carter ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Comerica Park projects as the #7 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Evan Carter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's game.

+270 at bet365

Total Bases

Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+175)

Projection 1.67

Best Odds

o1.5 +175

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +175

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +165

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Jake Burger is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Comerica Park projects as the #7 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.

+175 at bet365

View 10 Picks

MIL @

WAS Fri, May 1 • 6:45 PM ET

1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks

Spread

MIL -1.5 (+112)

Best Odds

-1.5 +110

Pick made: 17 hours ago

-1.5 +109

-1.5 +110

-1.5 +106

-1.5 +105

-1.5 +110

Brewers hitters have teed off on Jake Irvin in the past, slashing .317/.403/.557 heading into Friday’s matchup. With Jacob Misiorowski leading the NL in strikeouts, expect Milwaukee to cover as road favorites in the nation’s capital.

Total Hits

Luis Garcia Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+160)

Projection 0.77

Best Odds

u0.5 +160

Pick made: a minute ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +152

u0.5 +160

The #3 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which generally leads to worse offense.. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.. Luis Garcia Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.. From last season to this one, Luis Garcia Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.3% to 9.3%.

+160 at Fanatics Sportsbook

View 11 Picks

CIN @

PIT Fri, May 1 • 6:45 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+130)

Projection 1.85

Best Odds

o1.5 +130

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +105

o1.5 +130

o1.5 -120

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +109

o1.5 +115

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball's 11th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's matchup... and moreover, Singer has a huge platoon split.. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

+130 at bet365

Total Bases

Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+140)

Projection 1.66

Best Odds

o1.5 +140

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +124

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +100

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +121

o1.5 +135

When assessing his batting average ability, Sal Stewart is projected as the 17th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Sal Stewart is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams playing today.. Sal Stewart has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 23.7% seasonal rate to 29% in the past two weeks.. Using Statcast metrics, Sal Stewart ranks in the 99th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .388.

+140 at BetMGM

View 10 Picks

BAL @

NYY Fri, May 1 • 7:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Aaron Judge u0.5 Total Hits (+200)

Projection 0.91

Best Odds

u0.5 +200

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +166

u0.5 +200

u0.5 +163

u0.5 +170

The #4 park in baseball for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Aaron Judge has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 24.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week's worth of games.. Aaron Judge has been lucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .315 BA is inflated compared to his .287 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

+200 at bet365

Total Hits

Paul Goldschmidt u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.76

Best Odds

u0.5 +150

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +132

u0.5 +140

The #4 park in baseball for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Paul Goldschmidt's speed has decreased this season. His 26.12 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.95 ft/sec now.. Paul Goldschmidt grades out in the 11th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (12.9% rate since the start of last season).

+150 at bet365

View 10 Picks

PHI @

MIA Fri, May 1 • 7:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+160)

Projection 1.64

Best Odds

o1.5 +160

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +136

o1.5 +120

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +140

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber has posted a .376 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

+160 at BetMGM

Total Bases

Kyle Stowers u1.5 Total Bases (-200)

Projection 0.81

Best Odds

u1.5 -200

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -200

The #3 stadium in MLB for suppressing home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which tends to lead to worse offense.. Kyle Stowers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 79th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

-200 at bet365

View 10 Picks

HOU @

BOS Fri, May 1 • 7:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Shay Whitcomb u0.5 Total Hits (+128)

Projection 0.53

Best Odds

u0.5 +128

Pick made: 5 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +128

Shay Whitcomb's batting average talent is projected to be in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shay Whitcomb is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today's game.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Dry weather has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-driest conditions on the slate at 29%.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

+128 at DraftKings

Total Hits

Marcelo Mayer u0.5 Total Hits (+164)

Projection 0.79

Best Odds

u0.5 +165

Pick made: a minute ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +164

u0.5 +140

u0.5 +165

Marcelo Mayer is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Dry weather has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-driest conditions on the slate at 29%.. Marcelo Mayer's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 87.9-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 83.4-mph over the last two weeks.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Marcelo Mayer's 9.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 23.5%.

+165 at Fanatics Sportsbook

View 10 Picks

TOR @

MIN Fri, May 1 • 8:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Daulton Varsho u0.5 Total Hits (+156)

Projection 0.8

Best Odds

u0.5 +156

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +156

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +143

u0.5 +145

Daulton Varsho's BABIP talent is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 10th-deepest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Target Field.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching of all games on the slate.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Daulton Varsho in today's matchup.. Daulton Varsho's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 89.5-mph EV last season has lowered to 84.4-mph.

+156 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases (+105)

Projection 1.88

Best Odds

o1.5 +105

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -101

o1.5 +105

o1.5 -115

o1.5 +105

o1.5 +102

o1.5 +105

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as MLB's 10th-best home run hitter.. Byron Buxton is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Target Field as the 8th-best field in the majors for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Byron Buxton will have an edge in today's matchup.. Byron Buxton will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

+105 at bet365

View 10 Picks

LAD @

STL Fri, May 1 • 8:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Projection 1.9

Best Odds

o1.5 +115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -108

o1.5 -105

o1.5 -135

o1.5 +115

o1.5 -106

o1.5 +105

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Compared to last season, Shohei Ohtani has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 18.2% to 22.5% this season.. Shohei Ohtani has performed at a clip of 42.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

+115 at BetMGM

Total Bases

Jordan Walker u1.5 Total Bases (-235)

Projection 0.78

Best Odds

u1.5 -235

Pick made: a minute ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -235

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the 2nd-worst field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs.. Low humidity has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report projects the 5th-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 36%.. Batting from the same side that Emmet Sheehan throws from, Jordan Walker meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Jordan Walker's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 21% down to 0%.. In the last week, Jordan Walker's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.4%.

-235 at bet365

View 10 Picks

ATL @

COL Fri, May 1 • 8:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Jorge Mateo u0.5 Total Hits (+130)

Projection 0.66

Best Odds

u0.5 +130

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +129

u0.5 +130

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +130

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Mateo in the 12th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Jorge Mateo is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today's game.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 5th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jorge Mateo in today's matchup.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.188) provides evidence that Jorge Mateo has been lucky since the start of last season with his .245 actual wOBA.

+130 at bet365

Total Bases

Kyle Karros o1.5 Total Bases (+200)

Projection 1.47

Best Odds

o1.5 +200

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +161

o1.5 +200

o1.5 +155

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +160

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best venue in the majors for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Kyle Karros will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Kyle Karros's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 16.9% on the season to 25% over the last week.

+200 at bet365

View 10 Picks

NYM @

LAA Fri, May 1 • 9:38 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Juan Soto u0.5 Total Hits (+190)

Projection 0.88

Best Odds

u0.5 +190

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +182

u0.5 +190

u0.5 +165

u0.5 +172

u0.5 +170

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 10th-worst park in the game for LHB batting average.. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Juan Soto in today's game.

+190 at bet365

Total Hits

Josh Lowe u0.5 Total Hits (+140)

Projection 0.7

Best Odds

u0.5 +140

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +140

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +123

u0.5 +120

Josh Lowe is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 10th-worst park in the game for LHB batting average.. Josh Lowe has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.. In the past two weeks, Josh Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.. Josh Lowe's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88.7-mph figure last season has dropped off to 86.2-mph.

+140 at bet365

View 10 Picks

CHW @

SD Fri, May 1 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Ty France u0.5 Total Hits (+155)

Projection 0.76

Best Odds

u0.5 +155

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +138

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +130

u0.5 +137

u0.5 +135

Ty France is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 4th-worst stadium in the game for RHB batting average.. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. Today, Ty France is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.5% rate (89th percentile).. There has been a significant decline in Ty France's launch angle from last season's 10.7° to 3.7° this year.

+155 at bet365

Total Bases

Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+170)

Projection 1.73

Best Odds

o1.5 +170

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +156

o1.5 +170

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +155

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. In the majors, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. This game is forecasted to have the most humidity of all games on the slate (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

+170 at bet365

View 10 Picks

CLE @

ATH Fri, May 1 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Total Bases (+165)

Projection 1.71

Best Odds

o1.5 +165

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +145

o1.5 +165

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +138

o1.5 +145

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 10th-best park in the league for left-handed batting average.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences among all parks.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Considering J.T. Ginn's large platoon split, Kyle Manzardo will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

+165 at bet365

Total Bases

Bo Naylor o1.5 Total Bases (+200)

Projection 1.52

Best Odds

o1.5 +200

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +168

o1.5 +200

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +175

o1.5 +165

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 10th-best park in the league for left-handed batting average.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences among all parks.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Bo Naylor will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against J.T. Ginn in today's matchup... and even better, Ginn has a large platoon split.. Extreme groundball bats like Bo Naylor tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like J.T. Ginn.

+200 at bet365

View 10 Picks

KC @

SEA Fri, May 1 • 9:45 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+155)

Projection 1.78

Best Odds

o1.5 +155

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +155

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +150

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Vinnie Pasquantino will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

+155 at bet365

Total Bases

Jac Caglianone o1.5 Total Bases (+205)

Projection 1.46

Best Odds

o1.5 +205

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +183

o1.5 +205

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +200

As it relates to his home run ability, Jac Caglianone ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. T-Mobile Park has the least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for home runs.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Jac Caglianone will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo today... and even more favorably, Woo has a large platoon split.

+205 at bet365

View 10 Picks

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