MLB Picks

The Rockies are checking some home run boxes in tonight’s matchup with the Astros. Houston is dealing with injuries to its rotation, which brings in Triple-A lefty Colton Gordon. That also opens the door to a vulnerable bullpen, as the Astros are one of just two teams with a HR/9 north of 2.00. Goodman is the target in this solid indoor matchup. He’s one of the few hitters with familiarity against Gordon and has already taken him deep in just two plate appearances. He also hits lefties much better. Goodman brings legit power metrics, with one of the fastest swings in baseball at 79 mph, ranking 19th this season. The fair price sits in the +340 to +350 range, giving this +410 number clear value.

After an injury-plagued campaign in 2025, Yordan Alvarez is healthy and playing like an MVP candidate once again. He's fourth in the majors in slugging percentage (.714) and his expected slugging percentage is even higher at an incredible .821. He'll have the platoon advantage against struggling Rockies starter Michael Lorenzon tonight. Lorenzon has an ugly 6.09 xERA through three starts and is in the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate and the sixth percentile in xBA (.323). Alvarez will also benefit from the 15 mph blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Daikin Park.

The Mariners and Padres each saw their offenses wake up over the weekend. Seattle averaged 7.25 runs per game in their four-game sweep of the Houston Astros, while the Padres put up an average of 7.00 runs in their sweep of the Colorado Rockies. None of that changes the fact that there’s a strong pitching matchup on tap tonight, but this total won’t be easy to get Under. In particular, San Diego comes in having played to a total of 7+ runs in six straight games. With both lineups coming into tonight’s game hitting well, I’m taking the Over.

Bryan Woo has a 2.84 ERA since the start of the 2024 season, which a minuscule WHIP of 0.908 in that span. He’s struck out 17 batters while allowing just three earned runs on 10 hits over his first 18 innings of work this season. As good as Michael King (1-1, 3.24 ERA) has been for the San Diego Padres, I like the Seattle Mariners to win behind Woo.

This matchup features two left-handed starters against lineups that have been awful vs southpaws, ranking 26th and 27th in OPS. MacKenzie Gore has been excellent (2.45 ERA) and is supported by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA. Jeffrey Springs has been even better, posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.46 WHIP, highlighted by a one-hit gem over seven innings at Yankee Stadium his last time out. Oakland is always an Under candidate as they've already scored one run or fewer six times, including each of their last two.

 

Sam Haggerty is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. 23% of the time that Sam Haggerty has started against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF fences in the league.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate.. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Sam Haggerty in today's game.

Nolan McLean vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium is easily the marquee matchup of the night, and I’m backing the Mets in what could very well be an NLCS preview. The Mets are listed at +181 on Pinnacle, but I make them closer to +130, so there’s clear value at this price. While the Dodgers lineup—Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and Max Muncy—typically thrives against right-handed pitching, that edge diminishes against elite arms. McLean fits that profile with his high-end stuff and impressive spin rates. He has the ability to neutralize left-handed power by burying back-foot sliders and mixing in his curveball to keep hitters off balance, which should help limit hard contact and suppress their power upside.

A team with Nolan McLean as their starting pitcher shouldn’t be priced at +186. 

The 24-year-old has a 2.23 ERA across 11 starts in the Big Leagues and has flashed elite stuff this season, ranking above the 90th percentile in xERA, xBA, and average exit velocity. 

The offense could reasonably plate several runs against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has yet to ramp up to “elite mode” with a pedestrian 3.62 xERA and 20.9% K rate in three starts.