The 2026 ALCS continues tonight in Cleveland, with the series tied 2-2. I'm laying out my best Rays vs. Guardians home run predictions for Game 5 tonight.
My top MLB picks include Junior Caminero, Jose Ramirez, and Jonathan Aranda.
Don't miss first pitch at 5:08 p.m. ET (TBS) on Sunday, Oct. 18.
Best Rays vs Guardians home run picks
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Junior Caminero
Jose Ramirez
Rays home run pick: Junior Caminero
Play up to 20%.
Junior Caminero hasn't gone deep this postseason, but his underlying metrics remain encouraging. The Tampa Bay Rays star owns a 53.3% hard-hit rate in October, while his average exit velocity sits at 95 mph.
Even though that hard contact hasn't resulted in a home run yet, I like the matchup tonight against Parker Messick. Caminero swung it extremely well against left-handers during the regular season, smacking eight home runs with a .204 ISO and .490 SLG.
Messick has allowed a 56.7% hard-hit rate in the playoffs, and 12 of the 17 home runs he surrendered during the regular season came against right-handed hitters. Caminero has the contact quality and platoon power to capitalize tonight.
Guardians home run pick: Jose Ramirez
Play up to 16%.
The Cleveland Guardians haven't swung it with much power in these playoffs, but Jose Ramirez has shown some pop. The veteran has clubbed two home runs in nine games while posting a .273 ISO.
Ramirez is consistently getting lift on the baseball as well, putting 57.1% of his contact in the air. I'm not going to sit here and say tonight's matchup against Drew Rasmussen is an easy one, because it isn't. However, as dominant as Rasmussen has been, he's allowed 1.29 HR/9 in the playoffs with a 50% hard-hit rate.
The right-hander has shown at least some vulnerability to power, and Ramirez has the profile to punish one mistake.
Long-shot home run pick: Jonathan Aranda
Play up to 12%.
This isn't a massive longshot considering Jonathan Aranda's numbers, but at 10%, the value is appealing. He has one home run this postseason, along with a loud 66.7% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate.
Aranda has a fly ball rate just under 40%, and I'm once again looking at the hard contact that Messick is allowing in October, even if it hasn't turned into serious damage.
While Aranda's numbers aren't elite against left-handers, he's striking the ball well enough to take a flier at this price.
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Rays vs Guardians home run combo
This three-leg combo centers on hitters with a realistic path to capitalizing on one mistake. Caminero gets the platoon advantage against Messick, while Ramirez provides Cleveland’s most dependable power threat despite facing a difficult starter. Aranda brings the longest price, but his quality of contact makes him an intriguing third leg.
- HR picks: 22-117, -14.03 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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