We have conflicting Rays vs. Guardians expert picks for a pivotal Game 5 at Progressive Field tonight!
We're making the case for both Cleveland and Tampa Bay with the series tied 2-2, while giving out Rays vs. Guardians props for each side on Sunday, Oct. 18.
Rays vs Guardians expert picks for Game 5
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CLE ML |
48% |
 Chris Hatfield: TB ML |
51% |
 Quinn Allen: Ramirez 1+ home runs |
13% |
 Ethan Diamandas: Aranda 2+ hits + runs + RBI |
49% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 48¢ at Polymarket
Today is a great day to back Parker Messick at home at plus money, with my fair probability sitting at 53%. I love Drew Rasmussen, but not enough to pay a premium on him on the road.
The Rays' middle innings remain a huge question mark after Kevin Cash left Ian Seymour in for a lengthy seventh inning last night that nearly cost Tampa Bay the game.
Both starters are on full rest thanks to Friday's postponement, and Cleveland didn't use any of its Top 4 bullpen arms yesterday, either.
This is a coin-toss game that isn't being priced like one.
Chris Hatfield's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
Drew Rasmussen gives the Tampa Bay Rays the cleaner combination of strike throwing, contact management, and bullpen support in this swing game. His 2026 profile finished in the 99th percentile in pitching run value, and 87th in expected ERA.
He also struck out seven without issuing a walk over six innings against the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1. I felt the Rays were a little unlucky to lose that one, as their bullpen let them down in the later innings. I don't expect a repeat of that.
Read more in Hatfield's full Rays vs. Guardians predictions for Game 5.
Quinn Allen's expert pick: Jose Ramirez 1+ home runs
Price: 13¢ at Polymarket
The Cleveland Guardians haven't swung it with much power in these playoffs, but Jose Ramirez has shown some pop. The veteran has clubbed two home runs in nine games while posting a .273 ISO.
Ramirez is consistently getting lift on the baseball as well, putting 57.1% of his contact in the air.
Ethan Diamandas' expert pick: Jonathan Aranda 2+ hits + runs + RBI
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
Jonathan Aranda cleared this number by himself in Game 4, collecting three hits and two RBI. He typically hits second in Tampa Bay's order behind Yandy Diaz, so he’ll have chances to do damage.
Messick's platoon numbers help our bet. Interestingly, left-handed hitters produced a .304 wOBA and a .388 SLG against Cleveland's rookie this season, compared with .263 and .338 for right-handers.
Diamandas has more in his Rays vs. Guardians prop picks for Game 5.
How to watch Rays vs Guardians Game 5
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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