MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Thu, May 21 • 1:10 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Cleveland Guardians logo Detroit Tigers logo u7.5 (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Tigers starter Casey Mize has a stingy 2.43 ERA and ranks in the 85th percentile in xBA (.211).

Detroit can’t score, Mize won’t give up a ton, and both teams have bullpens with a sub-4.00 ERA. 

Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians logo CLE (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

The Tigers are missing three key players (Torres, Baez, Carpenter) and have fallen off a cliff, going 2-13 over their last 15 while scoring just 2.47 runs per game over that span.

The Guardians are hot with eight wins in their last nine and rank second in runs as well as third in OBP among all teams this month.

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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, May 21 • 1:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Jordan Walker logo
Jordan Walker u0.5 Total Hits (+182)
Projection 0.88
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Braxton Ashcraft will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Walker in today's matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 5th-best out of every team in action today.. In the past 7 days, Jordan Walker's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.2% down to 11.1%.. Despite posting a .401 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has experienced some positive variance given the .067 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.. Jordan Walker has compiled a .208 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz logo
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fences among all major league parks.. This matchup is expected to have the 12th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Considering Dustin May's large platoon split, Oneil Cruz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Thu, May 21 • 4:05 PM ET
8 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Keibert Ruiz logo
Keibert Ruiz u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 36 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.. 28% of the time that Keibert Ruiz has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the worst ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.
Total Hits
Nasim Nunez logo
Nasim Nunez u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 44 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nasim Nunez in the 14th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Nasim Nunez is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.. When starting against a lefty hurler this year, Nasim Nunez has been pinch hit for 20% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the worst ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Thu, May 21 • 6:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-140)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Aisha Quiñones image
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor

Spencer Strider has consistently handled the Miami Marlins, going 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 25 strikeouts over five career appearances. With the Atlanta Braves well ahead of their NL East rival, don’t expect him to ease up now.

Total Hits
Austin Riley logo
Austin Riley u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
Projection 0.89
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Austin Riley is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which tends to lead to worse offense.. Sandy Alcantara will hold the platoon advantage over Austin Riley today.. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Austin Riley in today's game.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ New York Yankees logo NYY Thu, May 21 • 7:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-160)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Aisha Quiñones image
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor

Carlos Rodón has some redemption on his mind after a shaky, costly return in the Subway Series for the New York Yankees. As they wrap up their current series against an AL East rival, he’ll need to capitalize on a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that’s hitting just .225 against left-handers this season. Rodón has a 2-3 record with an ERA of 4.72 and 54 strikeouts in 9 appearances against the Blue Jays in his career, but this Toronto team looks like a shell of themselves to start the season. Take the home team to best the Jays as Rodón shakes off the rust and slowly, but surely finds his rhythm again on the mound.

Total Hits
Ben Rice logo
Ben Rice u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.86
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #1 field in the majors for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The weather report expects the 6th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ben Rice's true offensive skill to be a .365, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .075 difference between that figure and his actual .440 wOBA.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Thu, May 21 • 9:38 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Athletics Athletics logo ATH (-104)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Aisha Quiñones image
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor

José Soriano has struggled mightily against the Athletics, going 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 33 strikeouts in eight career outings — numbers that should have the AL West-leading A’s feeling confident heading into Thursday’s finale. It also sets the stage for Shea Langeliers, who’s been on fire with a .328 average, hitting .326 against right-handers and already launching 12 home runs this season. Expect Soriano to run into trouble again, with Langeliers likely playing a major role.

Total Hits
Carlos Cortes logo
Carlos Cortes u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.77
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 23rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 6th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.. Carlos Cortes has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will be challenged by baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Cortes today.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Carlos Cortes's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.7% down to 0%.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Thu, May 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman logo
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+136)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for righty batting average.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Hunter Goodman will hold the platoon advantage over Eduardo Rodriguez in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Gabriel Moreno logo
Gabriel Moreno o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 28 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for righty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of the day at 82°.
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