Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
NYM
@
WAS
Thu, May 21 • 4:05 PM ET
The Nationals have been the best offensive team in the majors so far this season, scoring 5.58 runs per game. The Mets lineup is waking up as well, with both Juan Soto and Bo Bichette showing tremendous power in this series. These teams have consistantly had slugfests this year, and I'm taking the Over tonight.
David Peterson is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA this season, and while he’s been better working behind an opener, his stuff still isn’t what it once was. Peterson is allowing a hard-hit rate of 45.3%, and has seen his WHIP balloon to 1.569. The Nationals offense has already hit him hard once this year, and I'm backing Washington to win again tonight.
ATL
@
MIA
Thu, May 21 • 6:40 PM ET
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Runs (-106)
Ronald Acuna Jr. has wasted no time making an impact after coming back from injury, scoring four runs in his last two games and cashing this prop in four straight. He also owns excellent career numbers against Sandy Alcantara, giving him another strong opportunity to get on base and cross the plate.
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+490)
Ronald Acuña Jr. is trading at +490 to hit a home run on Thursday, and we are definitely hitting the button on that number, as I price Acuña closer to +350 to go deep. This is a strong edge on a home run prop, and while Sandy Alcantara is one of the better starting pitchers in MLB, Acuña has seen him plenty as a division rival and owns a 1.137 OPS against him in 38 career at-bats. There’s nothing I love more than a mathematical edge on a home run prop for one of the elite players in the game, especially when that player also has extensive familiarity with the opposing starter—and that’s exactly the situation we have with Acuña Jr.
TOR
@
NYY
Thu, May 21 • 7:05 PM ET
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
ATH
@
LAA
Thu, May 21 • 9:38 PM ET
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+350)
José Soriano has fallen out of form, allowing 15 runs over his last 22 innings. The command is wavering, the double-digit strikeouts are no longer showing up, and Langeliers has been a major problem for him. The BlastContact darling has already taken Soriano deep twice in 11 at-bats while posting a 1.765 OPS in the matchup. He hasn’t had the best series so far, but getting plunked twice yesterday could provide some added motivation for a hitter sitting on 12 home runs and batting .322. Only four players own a higher slugging percentage than Langeliers this season. The Los Angeles Angels bullpen is also capable of cashing this HR prop. It owns the second-worst ERA on the season, and that mark has been even uglier over the last two weeks at a 6.60 ERA. It’s extremely fly-ball heavy, and its HR/FB rate also sits in the bottom three in baseball.
LAA (-106)
José Soriano will get the ball for the Los Angeles Angels, and I believe he should be a much bigger favorite against the Athletics on Thursday. The Athletics lineup is built around launch angle and three-run home runs, and that’s exactly the type of offense Soriano is elite at neutralizing. Soriano relies on a heavy, high-velocity sinker that generates a ton of ground balls, which is a nightmare matchup for this Athletics lineup. His pitch profile should allow him to keep the ball out of the air and limit the damage from the Athletics power hitters. The Angels are trading at -106 on the moneyline, but I price them closer to -135, which is why I’m hitting the button.
COL
@
AZ
Thu, May 21 • 9:40 PM ET
Nolan Arenado o0.5 Total Home Runs (+630)
Give me the hot bat, the revenge angle, and a price that’s far too long for Nolan Arenado to hit a home run, and I’ll bet that scenario every day of the week. Zach Agnos is expected to serve as the opener, with Tanner Gordon handling the bulk of the innings afterward. Based on their pitching profiles, both matchups set up well for Arenado, who has been red hot with a 1.188 OPS over the last seven days. What I also love is that Arenado hits behind Corbin Carroll in the lineup. If the Colorado Rockies bring in a left-handed reliever to face Carroll, Arenado could gain the platoon advantage later in the game once the starters exit. I price Arenado closer to +480 to hit a home run on Thursday.
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+445)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Colorado Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will likely hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch. Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen. It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.
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