Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 18, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
TEX
@
ATL
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
BAL
@
HOU
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
Trevor Rogers has been sharp lately, staying under 2.5 earned runs in five straight appearances while allowing one earned run over his last two starts. Yordan Alvarez brings total-base upside against lefties, and Gunnar Henderson is heating up against a struggling Spencer Arighetti, who owns a 9.10 monthly FIP overall.
Samuel Basallo o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+101)
Samuel Basallo mashes right-handed pitching. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in xwOBA, the 96th percentile in xSLG, and consistently makes hard contact.
That spells trouble for Spencer Arrighetti, who has allowed a .321 average, .426 ISO, and .491 wOBA when facing left-handed bats over his last five starts.
Play to -135.
SD
@
KC
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
STL
@
AZ
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
Brandon Pfaadt has been excellent lately, posting a 2.50 xERA over his last four outings while limiting walks and homers. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs since May 17 and faces a struggling Cardinals lineup. Gabriel Moreno is also hot, batting .405 over his last 10 games recently.
TB
@
BOS
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
u9.5 (-107)
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are two of the stingiest teams in the MLB, ranking fourth (3.55) and ninth (3.88) in team ERA, respectively.
Boston’s bullpen owns the third-best ERA in baseball (3.13), so this projects as another quiet game for Tampa Bay at the plate.
BOS (-116)
MIA
@
MIL
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+370)
Heriberto Hernandez enters in elite power form, posting a .571 ISO with four homers across his last nine games. His 20.4-degree launch angle and 30% barrel rate point to loud contact, while his .338 ISO against left-handers gives him a clear path to punish Shane Drohan today in this matchup.
PIT
@
CLE
Sat, Jul 18 • 7:10 PM ET
LAD
@
NYY
Sat, Jul 18 • 8:08 PM ET
o8.5 (-112)
I’m playing the Over because both starters have pitch-shape issues that can turn into home-run damage. Weathers’ fastball has been a big issue, and "he's facing the Dodgers" is simply enough analysis to tell you why that presents troubles here.
Sheehan also gives New York a path. His heater has also had some issues. It's allowed a .550 xSLG, and his 65.0% air-ball rate, which makes him vulnerable against teams that can get the ball elevated. The Yankees are inconsistent without their full lineup, but they still carry enough barrel power at Yankee Stadium to help clear nine.
LAD (-112)
I’m backing the Los Angeles Dodgers because Ryan Weathers’ biggest weakness runs directly into this lineup’s strength. I thought yesterday was the best chance for the Yankees to get a win in this series and without it, I see them at risk of being swept. Weathers, who allows a 55.6 hard hit rate that ranks the bottom 30 percentile of baseball, is a real issue against the best offense in baseball.
LA hurler Emmet Sheehan is not risk-free, but his 30% whiff rate gives them a pretty direct route against a Yankees lineup that has the third highest rate of such stats in the sport. In a game that's a near pick'em, I'd play the Dodgers down to -133.
SF
@
SEA
Sat, Jul 18 • 8:08 PM ET
Neither starting pitcher has been on their "A" game lately. Bryan Woo has a 1.31 WHIP since June 1, and Logan Webb has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts. Neither bullpen is trustworthy, either, so I'll grab the plus money Over with a deflated total given the big-name starters.
The San Francisco Giants have been the better team at the plate (112 wRC+ against RHP; Seattle 67) and in relief (3.10 SIERA; Seattle 4.60) this month, and Bryan Woo's 5.88 ERA since June 1 doesn't give much credence to his team being priced as the favorite. Logan Webb's should rely on his sinker against a Seattle Mariners lineup that struggles against the offering (-22.8 runs above average, 27th in the MLB).
WAS
@
ATH
Sat, Jul 18 • 10:05 PM ET
Luis Garcia Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-107)
Isolating starters who rank in the 45th percentile or worse in xSLG and xwOBA vs. lefties, Luis Garcia Jr. has cleared 1.5 total bases in 68.4% of his games and averaged 3.5 bases along the way.
Garcia also owns ISOs of .320 or higher against three of Ginn’s four most-used pitches.
This is a great spot to deal damage. Bet to -125.
James Wood o0.5 Total Home Runs (+243)
James Wood enters the second half in excellent power form, launching six homers over his last nine games with a .633 ISO and 59.1% hard-hit rate. JT Ginn has allowed 1.75 HR/9 recently, while the A’s bullpen owns a 2.55 HR/9 mark over two weeks at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.
DET
@
LAA
Sat, Jul 18 • 10:07 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Covers’ has more than 25 years of experience making smart MLB picks from the season’s first pitch to the World Series.
We find the best MLB odds and share our picks and baseball best bets for all the significant games of the baseball season right here on this page.
Our picks are researched and analyzed by experienced sports bettors looking for an edge to get the best value from their MLB betting.
Making smart MLB picks means looking beyond the favorites. Our free expert baseball picks will include a wide variety of bet types and markets.
Every day our baseball analysts look for quality baseball picks to share. You can expect well-researched picks on the money, run line, totals, player props, and much more.
Run lines are what other sports like football and basketball refer to as point spreads. Run lines even the odds between two teams, offering bettors as close to an even matchup as possible. Our analysts research vital stats, pitching matchups, injuries, and more to give you the best possible edge before making your MLB run line bets.
Covers’ analysts make MLB Over/Under picks throughout the baseball season. Betting on MLB Over/Unders means choosing whether you think the combined total runs scored in a game will be Over or Under a specific run total set by oddsmakers.
Betting on the MLB moneyline means picking which team will win a game outright. While less common than picking the run line or even a prop, our analysts will always look for high-value baseball moneyline picks if they feel it’s the best bet.
There’s always value in MLB props. Our team scours through game, team, and player props to try and find opportunity and value. From strikeouts to home runs, expect well-researched MLB prop picks from Covers.
Covers’ consensus MLB picks show you the odds and predictions that our vibrant community of bettors and players are making. Try our picks on with our free MLB contests for a chance at prizes and more.
If you’re ready to bet on MLB picks, you first need to find the right sportsbook. The best MLB betting sites offer secure banking, best odds, bonuses, and reliable customer service.
Covers’ staff of sports betting fans also offers a wide array of free picks for the NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA basketball, and NCAA football.
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
Established in 1995,
All Picks
NFL
NCAAF
MLB
NBA
NCAAB
NHL
CFL
WNBA
Golf
World Cup
