Heavy thunderstorms could threaten the middle game of the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies weekend series coming out of the All-Star Break.
The Mets won the opener, snapping a three-game losing streak. The Phillies are home for the first time in two weeks after a nine-game trip to prepare the stadium for the Midsummer Classic.
Philadelphia is a -169 favorite and should have the pitching edge by a wide margin, which is why my Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks call for a Philly win.
Who will win Mets vs Phillies today: Phillies -1.5 run line (+119)
Ideally, I'd like to keep those runs, but the moneyline is far too expensive to take the Philadelphia Phillies straight up. It's currently in the -160 range. I'd prefer -120 and would go up to the mid -130s.
The last-place New York Mets have a .377 winning percentage with a -1.2 differential per game against .500+ teams. Against current playoff teams, they're .333, -1.9. The Phillies, meanwhile, are .651 against losing teams.
The Phillies start Jesus Luzardo, who is fourth in MLB in strikeouts and is above the 80th percentile in every major pitching metric except walk rate (62nd) and chase rate (78th).
Play to +100.
COVERS INTEL: Luzardo has added almost 150 revolutions to his sweeper's spin rate from last season, and batters are now hitting .131 against it. Luzardo now has the second most-effective sweeper in MLB, behind Ohtani's, boasting a whiff rate over 50%. It's the 28th most effective among all pitch types. More than half (78 of 136) of his strikeouts have come on the sweeper this season. Mets batters hit .210 with a 30.5% strikeout rate against sweepers.
Mets vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-103)
The Mets' four runs on Friday matched their total for the previous three games. New York also saw Juan Soto leave in the eighth with a sore left calf, the same problem that sent him to the IL in April. He's listed as day-to-day.
The Mets start Sean Manaea, who is being showcased as a likely deadline deal to a contender. He's 2-4, 4.56, but is 4.35 with a 1.258 WHIP in his last four starts, 3.75, 1.083 in his last two. Philly has scored 3.5 runs per game in the last 10, nearly a full run lower than their season average.
Play to -110.
- ML/RL bets: 25-35, -6.98 units
- Over/Under bets: 35-20, +2.53 units
Mets vs Phillies weather
Humid with rain in the forecast. The winds are moderate and blowing out to centerfield.
Mets vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Mets +156 | Phillies -163
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-133) | Phillies -1.5 (+127)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (+104)
Mets vs Phillies trend
[Stat]. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Saturday, July 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, NBCSP |
| Mets starting pitcher | Sean Manaea (2-4, 4.56 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (8-4, 3.51 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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