England vs France Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Saturday, July 18 World Cup Match

Both England and France have one match remaining at the 2026 World Cup. But it’s not the match either would have hoped for.

Saturday’s third-place match is a disappointing consolation prize for both nations. As my England vs. France predictions explain, it’s also why the favored French are far better suited to pick up medals.

Here are my World Cup picks for their match in Miami at 5 p.m. ET on July 18.

England vs France predictions

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 TOP PICK
Who will win England vs France: France in regulation (-103)

It’s coming home. And by “it”, I mean the England plane without a trophy, just like we’ve seen from every major tournament now for the past 60 years.

But while England’s suffered heartbreak and disappointment before, it’s usually not accompanied by an extra match. Manager Thomas Tuchel publicly admitted that none of his players want to be a part of this fixture, and he claimed the French players don’t either.

While he might be right, France is in a far-better position. It’s why they’re favored to come out the victors, with -170 odds at Kalshi.

Not only do they have an extra day’s worth of rest, but they lack the fitness concerns of the Three Lions. Tuchel would rightly face criticism for risking the likes of Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Reece James, and others who are banged up with the Premier League season just a month away.

Additionally, England’s injury concerns are exacerbated by a lack of depth at fullback and in midfield. After three grueling matches, one of which went to extra time, they’ll likely have a few players forced to play through both physical and emotional fatigue.

Add in the fact that this is the final match for manager Didier Deschamps, and France have some motivation beyond simply being the better team and better suited to win.

I’m backing France in regulation down to -120.

COVERS INTEL: France ranks fourth in aerial duel win rate (61.4%) on defense, which should neutralize England’s set-piece routines that have led to the third-most attacking headers (3.57) per match.

England vs France Over/Under pick: Over 3.5 (+114)

Both of these nations have the pace to effectively attack directly, and we’re likely to see a fair amount of that here.

As I mentioned, the club campaigns start soon. With that in mind, it’s unlikely you’ll see defenders putting in the same sort of challenges or tracking runs with the gusto they would in the final or a knockout match.

Additionally, the amount of rotation I’m expecting means we’ll see some defensive pairings with little cohesion or familiarity. This typically leads to a higher-scoring affair.

Looking at individual talent, France’s “backup” forwards are still world-class players capable of scoring at any time. On the flip side, their likely defensive starters—especially Ibrahim Konate and Theo Hernandez—are prone to making mistakes.

Part of my expectation for France to win is that they’re a strong candidate to bag three goals. Their attacking quality and depth against an exhausted and drained England side lends itself to them performing well.

With the Three Lions getting at least one of their own, it gives us a great shot to hit the Over at plus-money.

Back this to +105.

England vs France projected lineup

England (4-2-3-1): Trafford; Spence, Chalobah, Burn, O’Reilly; Mainoo, Anderson; Madueke, Eze, Rashford; Watkins.

France (4-2-3-1): Samba; Gusto, Lacroix, Konate, Hernandez; Zaire-Emery, Kante; Doue, Cherki, Thuram; Mbappe.

England vs France injuries

England: CM Declan Rice (Doubtful), RW Bukayo Saka (Doubtful), CM Jordan Henderson (Out).

France:  CB William Saliba (Out).

England vs France weather

It will feel like it’s 100 degrees at kickoff, with winds between 12-21 mph and no chance of rain.

England vs France odds

Odds courtesy of Kalshi.

How to watch England vs France

Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.

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