MLB Picks

Nolan Arenado has hit for more power against lefties while Matthew Boyd has bled homers to right-handed hitters, allowing 1.82 HR/9.

Boyd attacks batters with a steady dose of fastballs and changeups. That’s music to the ears of Arenado, who owns ISOs of .452 and .304 against those pitches when thrown by southpaws.

Play to +500.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as MLB's 19th-best home run hitter.. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball batters like Eugenio Suarez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Landen Roupp.. The San Francisco Giants infield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team today.

Joey Cantillo has been excellent at generating strikeouts recently, owning a 31.46% strikeout rate over his last five starts. However, he has also allowed plenty of hard contact, posting a 1.40 WHIP, near 55% hard hit rate and near 12% barrel rate during that stretch. The Angels have been seeing left handed pitching well, with four hitters owning strikeout rates of 20% or lower and six at 26% or lower over their last 30 at bats. Over their last six games against southpaws, Los Angeles owns a 22.5% strikeout rate. Seven strikeouts feels like too much. Take this down to -115.

Seattle starter Bryan Woo missed his last start due to a right shoulder issue. He threw just 75 pitches in that outing and could be on a more conservative pitch count today against a tough Phillies lineup. The Mariners are in a good spot to handle Woo with caution after a strong start from George Kirby yesterday and just 27 pitches used from the bullpen. There are a lot of paths, including the shoulder, that could prevent Woo from finishing the sixth inning, something he had done at just a 50% clip over his last 12 starts. Woo was already averaging just 88 pitches per start, but the shoulder adds another layer of concern, while the bullpen is fresh. He projects for just 80 pitches and 15.1 outs today, leaving plenty of meat on this Under bone.

When it comes to his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 83°.. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Randy Vásquez today.

How about getting the hottest hitter in baseball at a near-900 price? Mickey Gasper has five home runs and leads MLB in slugging over the last two weeks. The power surge is obviously unsustainable, but I'm along for the ride until the wheels fall off. He went deep twice yesterday and has hit all five of his homers since being recalled from the minors. He's a switch hitter who crushes right-handed pitching and gets a right-handed Ryan Gusto, who has the fourth-worst HR/9 among today's starters dating back to last season. The Marlins' bullpen is also gassed after using seven pitchers yesterday and being without any strong left-handed options today. Back the heater.

CJ Abrams has the fourth-best probability to go deep today, and his home run price at +300 or better is a buy for me. He gets the best home run matchup in Colorado's Tanner Gordon, who has the worst HR/9 among all starters today since the beginning of last season. Gordon is a fringe starter and is only in the rotation because the Rockies released Michael Lorenzen. As a starter (six games), he owns a 1.028 OPS against, with seven homers allowed in just 28+ innings. Batters are killing him the second time through the order, slashing .383/.453/.617, but even in the first plate appearance, hitters have a .673 slugging against Gordon. The Nationals could put up seven runs today, and all their starters are live on the longball, but I'll take a soon-to-be 30-HR hitter at a price on the good side of three dollars. Nationals Park also ranks as the third-best park for home runs today, per Ball Park Pal. 

Elmer Rodríguez does not have a pitch that survives contact. 

His four-seamer, thrown 22.6% of the time, has allowed a .538 slugging percentage with a 63.6% hard-hit rate and a .668 xSLG, and his sinker yields a .333 average and .409 xwOBA on 41.5% usage with only a 14.5% whiff rate. A 13.3% walk rate against a 12.0% strikeout rate means those pitches show up in hitters' counts all night. Yordan Alvarez is the bat in this lineup built to end an at-bat with one swing

The Jays wanted nothing to do with Bobby Witt Jr. yesterday asd 63% of his pitches were outside the zone. He finished with two walks, with one being a free IBB from a lefty bullpen arm. The Jays are happy with throwing a lefty at Vinnie Pasqunatino, who is hitting behind Witt. It worked yesterday, and with a bullpen day on tap for Toronto, I'm expecting the same treatment here. The fair price for this walk is around +145/+150, and two walks is also live with the Jays needing this win in a big way.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jake Bauers ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jake Bauers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. The shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league are found in Citi Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.. Because of Robert Stock's large platoon split, Jake Bauers will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.

Freddie Freeman is one guy who will benefit from seeing a lot of fastballs and splitters. He has feasted on those two pitches, hitting .374 against righties with a .228 ISO and .602 SLG.

Only one bullpen has given up barrels at a higher clip than the Atlanta Braves in August so it’s not as if Freeman’s home run chances will tank when Smith-Shawyer exits the game.

Play to +430.

Miguel Vargas has been one of the most patient hitters in baseball lately, leading the league in walk rate over his last 10 games at nearly 30%. Even across his last 15 games, he ranks third at 23.3%. Tonight, he draws MacKenzie Gore, who I already love to go over his strikeout prop. Gore has not been walking many batters lately, but the Rangers bullpen has, posting an 11.1% walk rate over their last 21 games and an 8.8% rate against right handed hitters on the road. Vargas is worth a look above +120, but take this down to +110.

When assessing his home run skill, Colton Cowser ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In MLB, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 87°.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Colton Cowser will have an advantage today.. Colton Cowser has big-time HR ability (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (30.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy doesn't generate many whiffs (8th percentile K%) — great news for Cowser.

Byron Buxton projects as the 8th-best home run batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 park in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 104°.