MLB Picks

Nolan McLean owns a 1.14 WHIP, 3.53 xFIP, and ranks in the 82nd percentile in xBA. 

Meanwhile, Nick Lodolo ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, Barrel%, and K%. 

Back New York to make the most of a pitching advantage. Playable to -145.

When it comes to his home run talent, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #10 park in the league for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The #3 stadium in the game for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. Luinder Avila will have the handedness advantage against Dylan Crews in today's matchup.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Casey Schmitt in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Casey Schmitt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 15.5% to 19.8%.. Casey Schmitt has paced 35 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 92nd percentile for power.

Peter Lambert's underlying numbers are trending in the wrong direction, as he owns a 5.75 FIP over his last two starts while allowing 2.31 home runs per nine innings and a 42.2% hard-hit rate over the last month. Casey Mize has posted a 2.40 FIP this season and remains a reliable run suppressor.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in the league.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for hitters.

Shohei Ohtani has allowed one earned run or fewer in all 12 of his regular-season home starts since joinging the Dodgers and owns a 1.06 ERA this season. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in OPS against righties over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in six of his last nine starts and gets a Dodgers lineup that's struggled badly against left-handed pitching lately. The Rays have also gone Under in seven of their last eight road games.

When it comes to his home run talent, Zach Neto ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zach Neto is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field ranks as the #3 stadium in MLB for overall RHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Zach Neto will have the upper hand in today's game.

Max Scherzer finds himself in a difficult spot to rack up strikeouts against a Boston Red Sox lineup that has been making plenty of contact lately. Over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, six projected Red Sox hitters own strikeout rates of 20% or lower, with three sitting below 10%. Scherzer has not missed many bats this season either, averaging just 2.3 strikeouts per start with an overall strikeout rate around 13%. That number has fallen below 9% across his last three outings. Given Boston's contact-heavy profile and Scherzer's declining strikeout production, the under is worth backing.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Braden Montgomery in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Austin Riley is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 81°.. Austin Riley will hold the platoon advantage over Robbie Ray in today's game.

Gavin Williams' recent underlying metrics are alarming, as he owns a 7.05 xERA and 48.5% hard-hit rate over his last two starts while allowing 3.48 home runs per nine innings. Milwaukee is batting .269 with a .222 ISO recently, while Cleveland's offense has hit just .216 over the last week.

Sean Sullivan, who is raw and owns a 5.60 ERA in AAA this year, will get the start. The Colorado Rockies will then turn to one league’s worst bullpens, which is also fatigued. The Chicago Cubs should generate plenty of runs for Javier Assad, who has allowed four hits over 12.1 innings in his last two appearances.

It was just last weekend that games in Sacramento were carrying totals as high as 14.5. Tonight, we're getting a total of 10, even though the hitting conditions are once again ideal with double-digit winds blowing out to the home run alley in right-center field. Last night's game produced another four home runs at Sutter Health Park, and there is plenty of reason to expect more offense today. Pittsburgh starter Braxton Ashcraft struggles to keep the ball on the ground, posting a 39% groundball rate, while Athletics starter Aaron Civale is coming off the IL and owns the eighth-worst groundball rate among MLB starters along with the 28th-worst HR/9. If the starters don't give up runs, the bullpens can help. This matchup features the fourth- and fifth-worst bullpens in baseball by ERA over the last two weeks.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 16th-best batter in the league.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. On average, the fence height at T-Mobile Park is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Pete Alonso has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.