MLB Picks

Mitch Keller owns an abysmal 8.72 ERA and has allowed at least three runs in eight of nine starts when facing teams that slot Top-10 in OPS vs. right-handed pitching.

Gerrit Cole has not looked sharp, and that’s been problematic at home. He has allowed 1.91 homers per nine innings in New York.

Bet to -115.

After backing Jacob Wilson at +1140, I'm like a vampire with a thirst for 10/1 home runs or better, and Dean Kremer at Fenway with the wind blowing out is my next target. I'm playing this down to +750 in the first game of a doubleheader, where Kremer could be asked to eat innings. Kremer currently owns the worst HR/FB rate among qualified MLB starters and the third-worst HR/9. He's already surrendered nine home runs in just 26 innings, with left-handed hitters doing most of the damage. Masataka Yoshida is one of only two Red Sox with an OPS north of 1.000 over the last 30 days and ranks near the top of the club in most offensive categories. He isn't known as a prolific home run hitter, but he's in the middle of a nice power surge with two homers and a .351 average over his last 10 games. The matchup and the setting are there today to take a shot at a massive price.

This is another pitcher who gets hit hard, but his home splits are in his favor, and he might catch a low-motivated Giants lineup today. San Francisco is wrapping up a two-series road trip with the All-Star break in the middle and heads home from Kansas City to start a series against the Angels on Friday. That makes this an interleague getaway spot, and the Giants have already dropped four straight games while scoring just 11 runs during the losing streak. Seth Lugo gets this lineup at the best possible time. Since the break, this lineup owns a 29.3% K rate, which ranks fifth-highest in baseball. THE BAT projects 4.97 strikeouts on 92 pitches, putting the fair price around -125/-130. Six innings and five strikeouts is a realistic outlook.

I think Merrill Kelly is one of the worst starters in baseball, but this is simply too small a strikeout total at home against a getaway Athletics lineup, especially with the market moving toward the Over. Kelly is one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball, but his strikeout numbers at home have been much better than on the road. He has 32 strikeouts over 37 home innings compared to just 30 punchouts in 61 road frames. He is also 6-1 to the Over on this prop at home this season and has recorded at least three strikeouts in each of his seven home starts. The Athletics are heading to Minnesota to open a series Friday, so there's a chance this turns into a mail-in game. They also struck out five times in five innings against MLB debutant Kohl Drake yesterday, who doesn't project as a high-strikeout pitcher. THE BAT projects Kelly for 4.03 strikeouts, making the fair price closer to -130/-135.

Aaron Nola might be the biggest pitcher fade on the board, and his Over 2.5 earned run prop is moving for good reason. His numbers fell off a cliff last year, but this season is showing that it wasn't just a one-year blip. The walks are up, and his HR/9 has climbed from 1.35 two seasons ago to 2.01 this year, which is the second-highest mark among qualified starters. He's also giving up more fly balls than ever with a 39.8% groundball rate, and hitters are barreling him on more than 25% of swings, ranking in the bottom 20 among starters. The Dodgers have a great get-right spot today, and there are plenty of bats in that lineup with a ton of history against Nola. THE BAT projects Nola for 3.3 earned runs allowed, the fourth-highest mark among starters on today's slate, with a fair price of -155. However, because he isn't expected to work deep, the Dodgers F5 team total Over 2.5 is a great pivot if the price moves past -125.

My projection lands at 9.6 total runs, so this is a very small edge, but at the plus-money price, I'll go that direction and play it to -105. Neither starter is built to fully shut this down and I'd be suprised if they did. For example, Chandler’s 13% walk rate creates free traffic in Yankee Stadium, while Warren’s recent form leaves the Buccos with a real scoring path. Ultimately, I do not need Pittsburgh to dominate Warren; we just need them to contribute enough. I think there’s plenty of power in the lineup to do that.
 

Toronto can't score coming out of the break, and the offense has been one of the worst in baseball all season, ranking dead last in wOBA, ISO, and runs scored while sitting in the bottom five in nearly every other offensive category. Braydon Fisher will open the game before handing things off to Spencer Miles, who is coming off a six-run outing against the White Sox last Friday. This is a defeated Toronto lineup getting nothing from its biggest bats, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Dalton Varsho, and Kazuma Okamoto combining to hit just .186 over the last two weeks. I can't see how a bullpen game against the Rays — a team that has won seven of the last eight meetings — makes Toronto the favorite. Griffin Jax already faced the Jays once this season and needed just 66 pitches to throw five shutout innings. This is a low point for the Blue Jays, and this is an offense worth fading after scoring just eight runs through five games since the All-Star break.

Both offenses enter in excellent form, with Atlanta carrying a 150 wRC+ and .262 ISO over five games, while San Diego has also been productive. Perez’s walk and homer issues create early scoring upside, and Atlanta’s bullpen has posted a 5.00 FIP over the last week entering this matchup tonight.

Anthony Kay has posted an xERA of 5.05 or worse in three of his last four starts. He’s allowing a lot of quality contact and it’ll be tough to get the cat back in the bag against a Texas Rangers offense feasting on lefties.

The Chicago White Sox will see a lot of Cal Quantrill, who ranks in the 21st percentile in barrel rate and has allowed 2.14 homers per nine innings the last month.

Bet to -130.

Standing in the way of a quiet evening is Colin Rea, whose recent outings have featured an alarmingly high WHIP and elevated home run rate. Throwing hittable, middle-middle pitches to a Detroit Tigers lineup primed to bounce back makes a low-scoring affair unlikely.

With Rea vulnerable to hard contact and the Chicago Cubs bats already in a groove, expect early offensive fireworks to push this game over the 7.5 total with ease.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.