MLB Picks

I'd play the Under to 7. 

Both starters can control the shape of this game. Sale gives Atlanta strikeout upside against a Yankees lineup that has been flat-out bad, while Cole is still more than capable of limiting traffic even if his barrel profile creates some concern.

If Sale handles the Yankees’ cold stretches and Cole avoids the multi-run homer, this profiles more like a lower-scoring road favorite script than a full offensive eruption. In fact, it could look a lot like last night.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the game.. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The 5th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. Over the last week, Mike Trout's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.9%.. Mike Trout has posted a .358 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The Under 9.5 works because Oakland is doing little offensively and Boston’s bullpen has been dominant. The Red Sox relief corps owns a 1.93 xERA over its last 26.1 innings with minimal homer damage. If Oakland’s bullpen limits Boston after Jump exits, this stays under ten runs at Fenway today overall.

Alejandro Kirk has 12 hits in his last 10 games and draws an excellent matchup against Aaron Nola's vulnerable four-seam fastball, making over 1.5 total bases an appealing play.

Bryan Reynolds's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Robert Stock) in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. JJ Bleday pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like JJ Bleday tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Alvarez.. In the past week's worth of games, JJ Bleday's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.7-mph over the course of the season to 101.8-mph recently.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Josh Bell ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Josh Bell is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field ranks as the #7 venue in MLB for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, American Family Field's CF dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.

Newly acquired right hander Clay Holmes is likely to make his Cubs debut tonight, and I think he is in a strong spot to help keep the Royals’ struggling offense quiet. Kansas City’s bats have been ice cold, and while Seth Lugo has struggled this season, I am not expecting the Cubs to completely explode offensively. Chicago is certainly capable of putting up eight or more runs on any given night, but I expect a more controlled offensive performance here. After last night’s higher scoring affair, I’m looking for both sides to settle in and produce a lower scoring game.

Gavin Williams faces Anthony Kay in an evenly priced pick 'em spot. In their past 14 days, Cleveland holds a decisive edge in overall run prevention, boasting a 3.78 bullpen SIERA and a 25.8% strikeout rate compared to Chicago's 4.33 SIERA. With identical moneyline odds, trust the stronger pitching staff to pull it out.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the lowest average fence height.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage today.

I am backing the San Francisco Giants as a slight home underdog against the Detroit Tigers. Detroit sends right hander Jackson Jobe to the mound for his season debut after he posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 10 starts in 2025. Jobe also carries a poor matchup rating on Batters-Box, along with poor matchup marks in ISO and strikeout rate. On the other side, Landen Roupp has been significantly better at home, posting a 2.97 xERA and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just 22% hard contact and a 3% barrel rate. Despite their sub-100 wRC+, San Francisco's bats have been heating up against right handed pitching.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 5th-lowest fences among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 89°.. JJ Wetherholt hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Jacob deGrom is not in great form but he has been very good on the year, pitching to a 3.26 xFIP.

He is in a nice spot to rebound against a Baltimore Orioles team that pulled the plug at the trade deadline, selling multiple everyday bats for futures.

He won't need much run support to position the Texas Rangers to win.

Bet to -160.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed a modest 1.01 homers per nine innings and ranks in the 90th percentile with a 5.7% walk rate.

His ability to keep the ball in the park, and limit free baserunners, makes it very difficult on opponents to put together big innings.

Brandon Pfaadt has been even better at limiting the longball (0.92 HR/9), and has conceded just one bomb over his last 40.1 innings of work.

Bet to -120.

George Kirby takes the hill for Seattle, anchoring a pitching staff that paces MLB with a 2.56 SIERA and a 31.3% strikeout rate. Griffin Jax gets the nod for Tampa, but Seattle’s elite run prevention at home gives them the upper hand at a very manageable price tag.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.