MLB Picks

Zack Wheeler is coming off an 116-pitch outing against the Blue Jays, which was the most he has thrown in over five seasons. Making that even heavier is that he threw just 110 combined pitches in his two previous outings. His form has also fallen off that Cy Young pace, as he owns a 5.71 ERA since the break and has gone Over this number just once. Looking at the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen, there could be a quicker hook than usual, as all but one arm is available and the high-leverage guys need some work. There are also some lefties in that St. Louis Cardinals lineup who could end Wheeler's day, with JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson in the mix. There should be five lefties in the Cardinals' lineup today.

The Rays might have the best HR matchup on the slate today. They get Sutter Health Park, which is ranked as the best home run park by a fair margin, according to Ballpark Pal. Jack Perkins is also one of the best HR starters to target. He ranks in the bottom 20 of all MLB pitchers in HR/9 and the bottom 40 in HR/FB rate. He's allowed nine home runs over his last 28 innings at home. Liam Hicks is projected to hit out of the cleanup spot and is paying a robust +830, with some books as short as +500. He has a solid .884 OPS since joining the Rays and gets to face a right-handed starter, with 14 of his 15 homers coming against RHPs. The A's are also down their best lefty middle reliever and are a bottom-three bullpen in terms of HR/9. It's a buy to +650. 

The Under 8.5 leans on limited power from both lineups. The Cleveland Guardians owns a .111 ISO over the last week, while the Detroit Tigers sit at just .090. The bullpen profiles are not perfect, especially Cleveland’s command, but if the power stays muted, this matchup can remain lower scoring at Comerica Park tonight.

Griffin Conine looks primed for a breakout performance against Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski. After coming inches away from multiple home runs last night, Conine draws a favorable matchup against a pitcher who has struggled to limit hard contact and barrels. Mlodzinski has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 11.36% barrel rate over his last five starts, while left-handed hitters have produced a .352 xBA, .538 xSLG and .367 xwOBA against him over their last 60 at-bats. Conine has also been crushing the ball, posting a .529 SLG, .264 ISO, 50% hard-hit rate and 22.75% barrel rate.

This is a huge outlier price at Polymarket. I hit this winner last night at +325, and tonight’s matchup is just as good, with a fair price of +260. Pete Crow-Armstrong launched a 111-mph missile last night and has moved to -125 as the NL MVP betting favorite. He saw Jake Irvin last night but can do some damage against the Nationals and rookie left-hander Jackson Kent, who is making his first MLB start. The southpaw started the year at Double-A and is getting the promotion after Zack Littell was finally designated for assignment. Kent was a strikeout-per-inning pitcher at Triple-A this year but also allowed eight home runs over 63-plus innings. He’s tough on lefties from an AVG perspective, but left-handed hitters have taken him deep at a similar rate to righties. Nothing cute here—just backing a great bat in a great spot at a great price.

Matt Olson is the long-ball look I’m targeting in a slate with limited home run options. The Atlanta Braves slugger has been crushing left-handed pitching over his last 30 plate appearances, posting a 26.35% barrel rate, .714 SLG and .464 ISO. While this is a lefty-on-lefty matchup, Zac Thornton has struggled to limit hard contact against left-handed hitters, allowing a 12.5% barrel rate over his last 30 faced. Those hitters have also posted a .296 xBA, .495 xSLG and .522 wOBA during that stretch. Olson’s recent power profile makes him an appealing home run target tonight.

Munetaka Murakami stands out as a strong value play to go over 1.5 total bases at +131. The White Sox slugger owns the highest rating in this matchup and covers nearly 100% of Rhett Lowder’s pitch mix. Murakami has surpassed this prop in 53.19% of his 47 elite ratings this season, including seven of his last 10. He is also slugging .512 over his last 10 games while generating a 61% hard-hit rate and 21.7% barrel rate. Lowder has allowed a 41.8% hard-hit rate to left-handed hitters on the road, creating an appealing matchup. +131 offers excellent value.

Let's take a swing at another heavy plus-money Over K prop against a Kansas City lineup that got carved up by another lefty last night in Blake Snell, who easily topped his 7.5 K prop with a 10-strikeout outing. Eric Lauer is not Snell, but the Royals are a light-hitting lineup, and they're looking ahead to a day off tomorrow in California before heading to Anaheim. THE BAT is projecting this +EV on 87 pitches with a fair price of +125, but the Dodgers should give him a six-inning leash with a pitch count that can reach the upper 90s. There’s a good chance he tops that projected pitch count today. Lauer is also coming off a bad start at Wrigley, his worst as a Dodger, giving him some motivation on his side. The Dodgers could also be without three relievers today, including two lefties, which makes getting length from Lauer even more important.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.