Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 2, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
PIT
@
PHI
Thu, Jul 2 • 12:35 PM ET
PHI (-126)
Allan Rangel is set to make his first career start for the Philadelphia Phillies. While the specifics of his pitch count haven't been confirmed, I believe he's the best setup for success between the two hurlers today and would play Philly down to -135 because of it.
Rangel gets hitters to expand, carrying a 38.9% chase rate, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have a whiff rate of just over 27% - the highest in the league. On the other hand, Jared Jones's 9.7% barrel rate allowed figures problematic against a team with plenty of power.
u10.5 (-107)
I like the Under here with a projection of 9.4. Jones can give up damage, but he still misses enough bats to avoid a complete unraveling, and the Phillies’ offense has been closer to average than elite at 4.52 runs per game.
Rangel is the bigger reason I’m comfortable below this number. His chase-heavy profile attacks a Pirates lineup with MLB’s highest whiff rate, giving him a path to soft counts and strikeout leverage. This total is priced like both starters get hit (and hard), and I don’t agree.
CIN
@
MIL
Thu, Jul 2 • 2:10 PM ET
Jacob Misiorowski has been one of baseball's most dominant starters lately, pairing a 1.74 xERA with elite contact suppression. Against a Reds lineup carrying a .229 xBA over the last week, he's well-positioned to stay Under his earned runs and hits props while Milwaukee's recent power surge supports the run line.
o6.5 (-112)
A total of 6.5 feels too low despite two standout starters. Cincinnati's bullpen has struggled badly lately, posting an FIP above 8.00 while allowing plenty of home runs, giving Milwaukee's hot offense a chance to do most of the heavy lifting. The Over offers solid value at this number.
MIA
@
COL
Thu, Jul 2 • 3:10 PM ET
Liam Hicks o0.5 Total Home Runs (+546)
Michael Lorenzen faces a tough test in Coors Field against a Rockies lineup featuring multiple elite-rated bats, with Liam Hicks standing out as the top target. Hicks has been seeing the ball well, covering most of Lorenzen’s pitch mix and producing strong numbers versus right-handed pitching, including a .346 average and .955 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances. Colorado pitching has struggled badly at home against lefties, allowing high averages, strong slugging, and elevated hard-hit rates. With Coors amplifying contact quality, Hicks profiles as a live home run threat at an appealing price in this matchup tonight in Coors.
CHW
@
CLE
Thu, Jul 2 • 6:40 PM ET
u8.5 (-115)
The Cleveland Guardians rank 24th in wOBA, and 29th in ISO, against righties at home since June 1, and are missing Jose Ramirez.
Davis Martin has allowed only five runs through six starts against Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. right-handed pitching.
It'll be tough for the Chicago White Sox to score enough to push this Over.
Bet the Under to -125.
CHW (-110)
Slade Cecconi has posted a 1.88 ERA over his last five starts despite a 3.97 xFIP and 4.02 FIP.
The Chicago White Sox rank ninth in ISO and 12th in wOBA vs. righties since June 1, making them a strong candidate to bring Cecconi back to earth.
Back the White Sox to -120.
STL
@
ATL
Thu, Jul 2 • 7:15 PM ET
u9.5 (-137)
Atlanta's dominant bullpen owns a 2.16 FIP over its last 20 innings, helping offset Hurston Waldrep's lack of starting experience. Combined with St. Louis' 29 wRC+ over its last five games and Atlanta averaging just 3.41 runs over the past month, this profiles as a low-scoring affair.
STL (+101)
Dustin May's recent underlying numbers remain strong despite one rough outing, and he now faces a Braves lineup batting just .171 with a .057 ISO over the last week. With Atlanta turning to the inexperienced Hurston Waldrep, St. Louis has a favorable opportunity to snap its recent offensive struggles.
TB
@
KC
Thu, Jul 2 • 7:40 PM ET
Yandy Diaz o0.5 Total Home Runs (+542)
It is Yandy Diaz over Junior Caminero tonight against Royals right hander Stephen Kolek. Diaz profiles well into Kolek’s weak arsenal, with only his fastball and sinker grading above average. Diaz has crushed sinkers this season, hitting .414 with a 1.066 OPS and .479 wOBA, while also owning strong expected production versus fastballs above a .300 xBA. He is also in strong form, posting a 71.4% hard hit rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching with a .320 average, .840 OPS, and .369 wOBA.
DET
@
TEX
Thu, Jul 2 • 8:05 PM ET
Nathan Eovaldi enters in dominant strikeout form after back-to-back nine-K outings and now faces a Tigers lineup averaging nine strikeouts per game over its last three. Meanwhile, Kerry Carpenter's .320 average and 52.4% hard-hit rate, along with Justin Foscue's .357 mark against lefties, support both hitters reaching safely.
LAA
@
SEA
Thu, Jul 2 • 9:40 PM ET
SD
@
LAD
Thu, Jul 2 • 10:10 PM ET
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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