The Cincinnati Reds visit the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon, with a true pitcher's duel on the mound between Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski.
While both arms have been showing well lately, my Reds vs. Brewers predictions are eyeing Misiorowski to outduel Burns.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 2.
Who will win Reds vs Brewers today: Brewers -1.5 (+119)
Cincinnati Reds ace Chase Burns has pitched better than his recent results suggest, posting a 2.98 xERA over his last two starts despite a 4.91 ERA.
However, he's still allowed 1.64 home runs per nine innings during that span, and the Milwaukee Brewers' recent power surge makes this a tough matchup. They've posted a .208 ISO over their last seven games.
As for Jacob Misiorowski, he continues to shove.
The righty owns a mind-boggling 1.82 FIP over the last month, giving up just 0.32 HR/9 and holding opponents to a mere 1.8% barrel rate. The Brewers have frequently backed Misiorowski with plenty of offense this season.
I don't expect Burns to get lit up, but there's an opportunity for the Brewers to muster up some offense against him and a dreadful Reds bullpen, while Misiorowski is in line for another gem.
I'll play this pick up to -110.
COVERS INTEL: The Reds' offense has a poor 86 wRC+ over the last week. 
Reds vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 6.5 (-112)
I wouldn't usually be looking at the Over with these two on the hill, but a 6.5 total is incredibly low.
It's also important to note that Cincinnati's bullpen has an FIP over 8.00 across the last week while allowing 2.75 HR/9. Even if Burns holds his own, this profiles to be a game where the Brew Crew's power does damage.
The Brewers' relief corps has been better, compiling a 4.22 FIP across the last week. But Milwaukee's ability to score runs means Cincinnati won't be required to score much to help cash the Over here, and the Brewers' pen hasn't been completely dominant.
I'll play this pick up to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 32-29, +1.96 units
- Over/Under bets: 34-27, +2.40 units
Reds vs Brewers weather
Conditions at American Family Field should provide a slight boost to offense this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to sit around 91-92°F for much of the game, with steady 13-14 mph winds and only a small chance of rain. The warm air could help well-hit balls carry a bit farther, creating a mildly hitter-friendly environment, though the starting pitching will still be the biggest factor in determining the outcome.
Reds vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Reds +186 | Brewers -194
- Run line: Reds +1.5 (-133) | Brewers -1.5 (+127)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-108) | Under 6.5 (+104)
Reds vs Brewers trend
The Brewers have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+15.40 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Brewers.
How to watch Reds vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Thursday, July 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Reds.TV, Brewers.TV |
| Reds starting pitcher | Chase Burns (9-1, 2.36 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (9-3, 1.46 ERA) |
Reds vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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