MLB Picks

The Yankees have found a groove without star Aaron Judge (ribs) and won nine of their past 13 while averaging 5.5 runs per game and ranking ninth in wOBA and sixth in xwOBA. They’re also second in wOBA for the season against lefties, and Tigers southpaw Framber Valdez’s 4.47 xERA ranks in the 35th percentile. Additionally, New York righty Gerrit Cole has allowed two runs or fewer in four of five starts while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 30.7% squared-up contact rate and 10.2% blast contact rate. So, with the Tigers ranking 22nd in xwOBA with the 10th-highest strikeout rate across the past 30 days, I’m confident Cole can hold the Detroit lineup in check enough for a road win at Comerica tonight.

Kyle Stowers profiles as a strong HRR target entering his 36th elite rating, with consistent historical success in similar spots. In his previous 35 elite ratings, he has cleared this prop 54% of the time, including a 61.9% hit rate in 21 home elite spots with a 28.57% HR rate. He has been locked in recently, posting 63.2% hard contact, a 26.3% barrel rate, and 63.2% elevation over his last 10 games, along with a .667 SLG, 1.109 OPS, and .471 wOBA. He draws Kumar Rocker, who has struggled badly vs lefties, making this a strong matchup spot overall.

Kameron Misner will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, CJ Abrams ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 6th-best of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Alan Rangel throws from, CJ Abrams will have an edge today.

The Cubs are heating up at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game. Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga has also flipped the script with just a single run allowed and opposing hitters limited to a miniscule 19.3% squared-up contact rate and 3.5% blast contact rate across 10 2/3 innings over his past two starts. The Cubbies should also have their way with struggling New York Mets righty Kodai Senga. His 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile, and he has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings, after all.

Brewers are in a strong spot in Cincinnati against Brady Singer, who enters with a poor matchup profile in both wOBA and ISO. Milwaukee’s lineup grades out elite on Batters-Box with five elite-rated bats and one strong hitter, giving them a clear edge at the plate. Singer has struggled at home, posting a 5.61 xERA and 5.33 xFIP while allowing 42.2% hard contact and a 14.1% barrel rate. Milwaukee counters with Brandon Woodruff, who has been excellent on the road with a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, limiting damage consistently. Despite the juice, Milwaukee is the side in a small park matchup.

The Dodgers are in a premium spot tonight against Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate. Matthews has been hammered by left-handed hitters, allowing a 9.00 ERA, 7.01 xERA, and a .417 xwOBA over his last 60 lefties faced. While some of his better outings have come at home, they were against underwhelming offenses that do not compare to this Dodgers lineup. Los Angeles is projected to roll out six elite-rated hitters, making this easily the toughest test Matthews has faced all season. I expect plenty of offensive fireworks from the Dodgers tonight.

Gavin Williams has held batters to a .220 average while striking them out at a very healthy 27.9% clip. Anthony Kay ranks in the 10th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and xBA. His struggles are starting to catch up to him, allowing 12 runs over 13 innings the past three starts. Back the Cleveland Guardians to -130.

Hunter Goodman projects as the 18th-best home run hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather of the day at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.. Hunter Goodman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Bennett in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Taylor Ward is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 5th-strongest of the day for batters.. Taylor Ward will hold the platoon advantage over Samuel Aldegheri in today's game.. Among every team today, the 6th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.

Grant Holmes has struggled badly lately, posting a 6.29 FIP over his last five starts while allowing 4.22 walks and 2.53 home runs per nine innings. Michael King has pitched much better at Petco Park, where he's held opponents to a .216 average and posted a 3.30 ERA.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.