The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres meet tonight at Petco Park, with Grant Holmes struggling and Michael King looking to rebound from a rough stretch.
While both Holmes and King haven't been great, I'm eyeing San Diego to come out on top here in my Braves vs. Padres predictions due to King's home form.
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 22.
Who will win Braves vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-107)
The Atlanta Braves have pitched well this season, but Grant Holmes has been extremely inconsistent. Over his last five starts, he owns a 6.29 FIP while allowing 4.22 walks and 2.53 home runs per nine innings. The right-hander also owns a 5.39 FIP on the road and continues to struggle with both command and damage prevention.
Michael King's recent numbers are concerning, as he owns an 8.24 xERA across his previous two outings. However, the right-hander has pitched much better at Petco Park this season, holding opponents to a .216 average while posting a 3.30 ERA.
I don't expect either starter to dominate, but King has a clear opportunity to rebound at home while the San Diego Padres get to face a pitcher in Holmes who has consistently allowed traffic and home runs.
I'll play this pick up to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Holmes has allowed 7.94 BB/9 over his last two starts compared to his season average of 4.19 walks per nine innings. 
Braves vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 runs (+105)
With a modest total of just 7.5, there's value in the Over. Despite Atlanta's bullpen compiling a respectable 3.97 xERA over the last week, Grant Holmes still profiles as a pitcher who could allow three or four runs before exiting. The Padres are also squaring up the baseball lately, carrying a 41.2% hard-hit rate over their last six games.
Michael King also draws a difficult matchup against an elite Braves lineup. While Atlanta is batting just .235 over its last six games, its offensive talent is difficult to ignore against a starter who is prone to mistakes. The Padres' bullpen has also been shaky, posting a 4.22 FIP and 40.8% hard-hit rate over the last week.
There are multiple avenues for runs tonight.
I'll play this pick up to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 28-24, +1.70 units
- Over/Under bets: 31-20, +6.60 units
Braves vs Padres weather
First pitch temperatures are expected to be around 68°F with light 6.9 mph winds, 75.8% humidity, and no chance of precipitation. The cool marine air and minimal wind shouldn't provide much assistance to hitters, making this a fairly neutral-to-slightly pitcher-friendly environment.
Braves vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Braves -100 | Padres -104
- Run line: Braves -1.5 (+170) | Padres +1.5 (-178)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-104) | Under 7.5 (-108)
Braves vs Padres trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 away games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
How to watch Braves vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Monday, June 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Braves starting pitcher | Grant Holmes (4-3, 4.33 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (4-6, 3.60 ERA) |
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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