The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets kick off a three-game set at Citi Field tonight, and I’ve got a pair of MLB picks for the action.
My top Cubs vs. Mets predictions call for the Chicago offense to continue putting crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight against New York.
Who will win Cubs vs Mets today: Cubs moneyline (-121)
The Chicago Cubs are heating up at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO, and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game.
Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga has also flipped the script with just a single run allowed and opposing hitters limited to a miniscule 19.3% squared-up contact rate and 3.5% blast contact rate across 10 2/3 innings over his past two starts.
The Cubbies are set for success against struggling New York Mets righty Kodai Senga, too. His 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile, and he has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings.
I’m confident backing the Cubs moneyline to -135.
COVERS INTEL: Shota Imanaga has the seventh-highest whiff percentage among qualified pitchers, and the Mets have the fourth-highest strikeout percentage in June, so I don’t expect New York to keep pace with Chicago in the series opener.
Cubs vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
I’m anticipating the Chicago lineup to do damage against Senga to pave the way to this Over. In addition to the highlighted offensive surge from the Cubbies, they’ve also gone Over their team total in 21 of their last 35 away games (+6.10 units / 15% ROI).
The Mets are also ripe to cash in on statistical correction. New York ranks 23rd in BABIP with their .311 wOBA below their 12th-ranked .321 xwOBA to go along with a sixth-ranked hard-hit rate across the past 30 days.
This Over is the play to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 28-14, +15.77 units
- Over/Under bets: 14-13, -0.03 units
Cubs vs Mets weather
The forecast is clear with 73°F conditions, no chance of rain, and a steady 10-mph wind blowing in from left-center field.
Cubs vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -117 | Mets +113
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+138) | Mets +1.5 (-144)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-113) | Under 8.5 (+108)
Cubs vs Mets trend
The Cubs have covered the first five innings (F5) run line in eight of their last 10 games for +5.80 units and a 48% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets.
How to watch Cubs vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Monday, June 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, SNY |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Edward Cabrera (4-4, 5.21 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (0-5, 9.00 ERA) |
Cubs vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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