MLB Picks

Recent meetings between these teams have trended low-scoring, with five of the last six hitting the Under. Burns continues to pitch like an ace, while Luzardo’s underlying metrics are far better than his ERA suggests. Despite Philly’s recent offensive improvement, neither starter is expected to get shelled, making the Under attractive at plus odds.

George Springer is batting just .170 in the month of May with a .491 OPS, but he is a primetime player who thrives under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium. He’s also the type of hitter who can get hot quickly, and he’s coming off a two-hit game that included a home run in the Bronx on Monday. Conditions are favorable as well: it’s expected to be 94 degrees with the wind blowing out to his pull side at 12 mph. If you’re a fan of BVP, Springer is also 3-for-5 in his career against Will Warren with a double and a home run. This prop is trading at +470, but I price Springer closer to +410 to hit a home run on Tuesday, giving us an edge at the current number.

Ranger Suárez has been dominant lately, allowing zero earned runs in five of his last six starts while posting a 1.96 road ERA. The Royals continue to struggle against left-handed pitching with a 2-10 record vs lefty starters and a 27th-ranked OPS against southpaws over the last two weeks. Boston’s bullpen has also been elite with an MLB-best 1.90 ERA during that two-week stretch.

Two starters with sub-2.50 expected ERAs walk into two lineups that have different matchup issues. The Milwaukee Brewers' offense should score because of its patient approach, but it can still struggle from time to time because it relies on stringing hits together. Brown, who is likely a quasi-opener, going three to four innings, should have some success against that with a rested bullpen behind. Meanwhile, Jacob Misiorowski should do Miz things with a 92nd percentile barrel suppression rate among other elite metrics. I projected exactly 7 runs. 

Left-handed hitters have posted a .308 BA, .551 SLG, and .390 wOBA, while also carrying a 53% fly ball rate and 21% line drive rate against Zebby Matthews for his career at Target Field.

Against 64% of Matthews' arsenal, Yordan Alvarez owns at least a .400 BA, 1.450 OPS, and 311 wRC+. Against the remaining 36%, he still owns solid numbers.

The Pirates lead the majors in hard hit rate against left-handed pitching, ranking just ahead of the Yankees and Dodgers. That's a sign results should follow – especially facing Matthew Liberatore, who ranks in the 10th percentile in xERA.

Mitch Keller has performed much worse against left-handed hitters and the Cardinals are expected to start five, headlined by JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson. 

It’s no secret that Jorge Soler has built his entire swing path around crushing left-handed pitching, and that’s exactly what he’s done throughout his career. Almost every season, his OPS against lefties is significantly higher than it is against right-handed pitching. Not only is Jacob Lopez a left-hander, but he’s also one who has been giving up plenty of home runs to right-handed bats this season. He’s allowed six homers over his last three starts, and eight of the 10 home runs he’s surrendered this year have come against right-handed hitters. Lopez relies heavily on a slider that breaks into Soler’s swing path. If he doesn’t bury it at the back foot and leaves it anywhere over the middle of the plate, Soler has the power to send it into the seats. This prop is trading at +453, but I price it closer to +360, so there’s solid value on the number.

In their last 12 games away from home against right-handed pitching, the White Sox own a 116 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .778 OPS, while posting an 8.9% walk rate, 40.7% hard-hit rate, and 14% barrel rate. Not to mention, this team ranks third in first-five scoring on the road, putting up 3.03 runs per first five innings.

Over the last week, opponents are hitting .194 with .567 OPS against the L.A. Dodgers and are collectively producing at 37% below league average at the plate. The pen is well-rested with just two relievers throwing a total of 19 pitches over the last two days. The San Diego Padres have been almost as good, allowing .208 average and .575 OPS over the last two weeks, producing opposing offense 33% below league average. The San Diego bullpen is a little more fatigued than the Dodgers’, which could be an issue if Griffin Canning struggles early.

Shohei Ohtani takes the mound on Wednesday after throwing seven scoreless innings against the Giants in his last start. That adds to the fact that his ERA sits at a sterling 0.82 through seven starts this season. He hasn't gotten much run support, but this Dodgers offense ranks third in runs per game, so the tide will turn soon enough.