This week carries extra weight for me with more on the line, as these home run picks will also go head-to-head with Covers’ Jon Metler in our weekly betting challenge on the Pickoff. There are some strong spots on the board today for both home runs and MLB player props.
For this slate, I’m locking in Christian Walker to do damage in Minneapolis against Zebby Matthews and a vulnerable Twins bullpen. I’m pairing him with earlier plays on Jo Adell and Kody Clemens as part of the card.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, May 19.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jo Adell |
+350 |
 Kody Clemens |
+499 |
 Christian Walker |
+445 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +13343 |
Home run pick: Jo Adell (+350)
If you're betting home runs today, the Los Angeles Angels should be on your card.
A's lefty Jacob Lopez ranks as one of the worst starters on the board with a bottom-50 HR/FB rate and the sixth-worst xFIP among MLB starters. He has allowed multiple home runs in three straight games, right-handed hitters own eight of the 10 homers he has surrendered this year, and he’s backed by a bullpen that gives up home runs at a Bottom-7 rate.
There were a few names worth considering, but I’m landing on Jo Adell, who should hit higher in the order today against the lefty. All six of his home runs this season have come against southpaws, along with a .993 OPS.
Mike Trout (+360) and Zach Neto (+460) were two other names I looked at in a great matchup with 75-degree temperatures and winds blowing out at Angel Stadium.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, NBCS-California
Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+499)
With the absences of Byron Buxton and now Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens becomes the target for the Minnesota Twins in arguably the best home run matchup on the board today against Lance McCullers Jr., who I have ranked as the worst starter on the slate. He has been giving up long balls, struggling with command, and his BlastContact numbers, along with his HR/FB rate, suggest more damage is on the way.
Clemens hasn’t been putting up Buxtonian numbers, but nobody has. He does have five extra-base hits over his last five games, including a homer, and profiles as the left-handed bat to target against McCullers, who has been giving up home runs to lefties along with a .876 OPS.
The bonus is a Houston Astros bullpen that sits dead last in ERA on the season and has thrown the fourth-most innings. It could also be without two right-handed relievers in A.J. Blubaugh and Jayden Murray.
If McCullers can’t get deep, Jason Alexander and his 14.21 ERA may be forced to eat innings. Finally, 14-mph winds blowing out to center should help both sides in a game that could easily feature four-plus home runs.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, Space City Home Network
Home run pick: Christian Walker (+445)
I need to stay in Minnesota and get some Houston HR shares. Zebby Matthews is a prime candidate for regression after getting promoted off shaky Triple-A numbers and then getting a bit of luck in his season debut last week.
He profiles as a home-run-prone arm in a spot with double-digit winds blowing out, and he’s backed by a bullpen that has already thrown nine innings using eight different arms over the last two days and could be without three or four key relievers today. The Twins' bullpen sits near the bottom of the league in ERA on the season.
Christian Walker already has nearly a dozen home runs on the year and is tracking toward a 30-HR season. His BlastContact metrics over the last two weeks are comparable to Yordan Alvarez, and this is the kind of price I want in a game that could give pitchers whiplash from start to finish.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, Space City Home Network
- HR picks: 13-77, -9.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Jo Adell |
Bet Now +13343 |
| Kody Clemens |
|
| Christian Walker |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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