The Summer is coming as the hot weather is here. This week is bigger than usual for me, as I have more on the line, as these home run picks will also be used to take on Covers' Jon Metler head-to-head for our weekly betting challenge on the pickoff. There are some great spots today for home runs and MLB player props.
There aren't a ton of great pitcher fades today, but Jacob Lopez and the Athletics, as well as Lance McCullers Jr. and that Houston bullpen, are a must on any Dinger Tuesday home run card.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, May 19.
Best MLB home run props today
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Jo Adell
Kody Clemens
Home run pick: Jo Adell (+350)
If you're betting home runs today, the Los Angeles Angels should be on your card.
A's lefty Jacob Lopez ranks as one of the worst starters on the board with a bottom-50 HR/FB rate and the sixth-worst xFIP among MLB starters. He has allowed multiple home runs in three straight games, right-handed hitters own eight of the 10 homers he has surrendered this year, and he’s backed by a bullpen that gives up home runs at a Bottom-7 rate.
There were a few names worth considering, but I’m landing on Jo Adell, who should hit higher in the order today against the lefty. All six of his home runs this season have come against southpaws, along with a .993 OPS.
Mike Trout (+360) and Zach Neto (+460) were two other names I looked at in a great matchup with 75-degree temperatures and winds blowing out at Angel Stadium.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA
Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+499)
With the absences of Byron Buxton and now Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens becomes the target for the Minnesota Twins in arguably the best home run matchup on the board today against Lance McCullers Jr., who I have ranked as the worst starter on the slate. He has been giving up long balls, struggling with command, and his BlastContact numbers, along with his HR/FB rate, suggest more damage is on the way.
Clemens hasn’t been putting up Buxtonian numbers, but nobody has. He does have five extra-base hits over his last five games, including a homer, and profiles as the left-handed bat to target against McCullers, who has been giving up home runs to lefties along with a .876 OPS.
The bonus is a Houston Astros bullpen that sits dead last in ERA on the season and has thrown the fourth-most innings. It could also be without two right-handed relievers in A.J. Blubaugh and Jayden Murray.
If McCullers can’t get deep, Jason Alexander and his 14.21 ERA may be forced to eat innings. Finally, 14-mph winds blowing out to center should help both sides in a game that could easily feature four-plus home runs.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, Space City Home Network
- HR picks: 13-77, -9.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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