Pete Alonso has consistently cashed this prop in elite Batters-Box matchups, going over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs in 62% of 137 elite rated games over the last three seasons. At home, that number climbs to nearly 70%. Tonight, he gets an outstanding matchup against Grayson Rodriguez, who has struggled badly against right handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact and extra base damage. Alonso is also swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball, combining elite recent production with outstanding quality of contact. Everything points toward another productive night, making this one of my favorite player props on the board.

Projected Phils' starter Jesus Luzardo got blasted in his last time out, but before that he had given up just one earned run or less in six straight outings. I think he finds his form against the Nats on Tuesday. Our projections also have the Phillies scoring 5.78 runs, which will provide enough of a cushion to cover.

Jo Adell could not ask for a much better spot if he cracks Cleveland's lineup Tuesday night. He owns the highest matchup rating on Batters-Box in this game while covering more than 73% of Sean Manaea's pitch mix. Adell has crushed left handed pitching all season, posting a .303 batting average, .571 slugging percentage, and .910 OPS. Manaea, meanwhile, has allowed plenty of quality contact to right handed hitters, who continue to barrel the baseball and produce strong expected numbers against him. If Adell is in the lineup, this is an excellent opportunity to back his power at an attractive home run price.

The value is better for Ivan Herrera than for Jordan Walker, but those are the two names I've isolated as home run options. I don't like any lefties today because of the wind blowing toward home from right field, which may suppress power across the board. But I will grab a tiny, half-unit share of Herrera to continue mashing against lefties.

Boston enters tonight on a 14-3 tear since the All-Star break. Patrick Sandoval owns a 3.32 ERA through four starts, all Red Sox wins, and now faces a White Sox lineup that’s been among baseball’s worst against lefties lately. He's backed by a bullpen that leads MLB in ERA and FIP over the past two weeks. Davis Martin gets the ball for the White Sox and he's unravelling after a strong start to the season, posting a 6.00 ERA across five July starts.

Drake Baldwin enters Tuesday as the seventh highest rated hitter on Batters-Box and draws an outstanding matchup against Ryan Gusto. Baldwin covers 90% of Gusto's arsenal, while Gusto has struggled badly in recent starts and continues to allow plenty of quality contact to left handed hitters. Baldwin has also been swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball against right handed pitching, pairing elite hard hit and barrel rates with outstanding production. Add in the fact that he's homered in 23% of his elite rated games this season, and this becomes one of the stronger home run opportunities on Tuesday's slate. I would play this down to +300.

Ezequiel Duran has the second-most home runs at Globe Life Field this season, behind only Joc Pederson. Tonight, Duran is around +700 to go yard, while Pederson is closer to +350. Duran doesn't shy away from righties, batting .276 with 11 long balls in 302 plate appearances. The value is on the 27-year-old against Blade Tidwell and the Giants bullpen.

Shohei Ohtani draws another premium matchup Tuesday against Cubs right hander Javier Assad. While Assad has pitched well recently, left handed hitters continue to do significant damage against him, producing excellent expected numbers and plenty of hard contact. Ohtani enters this matchup swinging an incredibly hot bat, generating more than a 72% hard hit rate over his last 30 at bats against right handed pitching. He also owns an elite Batters-Box rating with outstanding arsenal coverage, and his long term trends are just as impressive, homering in nearly 30% of his elite rated games. 

The Seattle Mariners are not hitting for average or power, and they own the third highest soft contact rate over the past month.

Emerson Hancock is exceptional at avoiding walks, and limiting free baserunners is important against an in-form Tigers attack.

I make -129 the fair price and see value on the Under.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.