MLB Picks

Let's get on the dinger train early with a great matchup in the 12:35 matinee. Drake Baldwin is heading to the All-Star Game in just his second season, and projects as a +EV home run play today. He owns the fourth-highest probability to go deep on the slate and gets a matchup with Mitch Keller, who served up three home runs in his last outing. The hotter months have not been kind to the Pittsburgh starter. Keller has allowed eight home runs in 32 innings across his last six starts, his H/9 has climbed above one per inning, and he has gone Over his strikeout prop just once during that stretch. Baldwin snapped a brief cold spell with a homer over the weekend, but his BlastContact% and swing speed have both ticked up over the last week. I make the fair price closer to +380, and we've seen his home run prop as short as +350 over his last 10 games.

New York is on a bullpen day, so the focus is Ryan Yarbrough, whether he opens or works bulk. He has not pitched since July 4 and can cover length, but his 18% strikeout rate meets a Rays lineup with an 86% zone-contact rate. That has been the series problem. Drew Rasmussen adds the cleaner edge with a 4.5% walk rate against a Yankees lineup needing free traffic.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Citi Field.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 6th-weakest out of every team in action today.. Based on Statcast data, Ian Happ grades out in the 90th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .360.

Brooks Lee's BABIP talent is projected in the 10th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 10th-deepest CF fences in the majors are found in Target Field.. Brooks Lee's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 87.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Brooks Lee's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 16.6% to 12.9%.. Despite posting a .320 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brooks Lee has experienced some positive variance given the .026 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .294.

The #7 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for homers.. Hitting from the opposite that Anthony Kay throws from, Connor Wong will have an advantage in today's game.. Connor Wong has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last season's 87-mph figure.. Connor Wong's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 7% to 12%.

More All-Stars are making the home run card today with Riley Greene at +364. He is swinging one of the fastest bats in baseball, matching Yordan Alvarez's swing speed over the last two weeks, which ranks 17th in the league and tops on the Tigers. He's also in the middle of a power surge, piling up 24 total bases (six extra-base hits) over his last 27 at-bats, including a team-leading four home runs. Jack Perkins is one of the best home run targets on the board. The Athletics' starter owns the worst HR/9 among today's starters over the last 30 days, and his 28.4% groundball rate means there should be plenty of balls in the air. The lefty Greene also loves right-handed pitching, with 11 of his 13 home runs this season coming against righties. The Athletics may only have lefty Hogan Harris available out of the bullpen, and left-handed hitters have actually had more success against him than righties. This home run prop has been as short as +310 over the last 10 games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Logan Henderson to be limited in today's game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.. Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 18.9% underlying K%.. Todd Tichenor profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the worst venue in MLB for strikeouts.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.

Guess who's back? Mike Trout returned to the lineup as the DH last night and wasted no time going deep (+350). It wasn't a wall scraper either, leaving the bat at 110 mph and traveling 438 feet. His HR/AB pace this season is better than last year's, and only a handful of hitters — Yordan Alvarez, James Wood, and Juan Soto among them — own a higher xwOBA than Trout. Nathan Eovaldi has already allowed nearly twice as many home runs this season as he did all of last year, and the numbers are starting to trend in the wrong direction during his age-36 campaign. His four-seamer has been hammered to the tune of a .759 slugging percentage, and when his splitter isn't splitting, it gets punished too, with 30 of the hits allowed going for five home runs off the pitch. Trout has 34 career at-bats against the Texas right-hander, giving us a solid history to work with, and this might be the worst version of Eovaldi he's faced.

Arizona’s bullpen has been excellent lately, posting a 3.04 FIP while allowing a hard-hit rate below 30%. San Diego’s relief corps has been less reliable, but the Diamondbacks enter with just a 72 wRC+ over six games, giving Griffin Canning and the Padres staff a favorable run-prevention matchup tonight overall.

When it comes to his home run talent, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.5-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters.. Casey Schmitt will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.7°, Casey Schmitt has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 25.5° mark in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.