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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 28, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+175 
|
o8.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.14 |
-180 
|
u9.0 -120 
|
-1.5 +115
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 on grass.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Petersons last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Petersons last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+186)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.58 |
-210
|
o7.5 +105
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
3.31 |
+200 
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 overall.
- Dodgers are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 9-0 in Tigers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 vs. National League West.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Dillon Dingler o0.5 Total RBIs (+273)
o0.5+273
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.42 |
-145
|
o8.5 +105
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
4.16 |
+140
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -125
|
Miami
- Over is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts overall.
Washington
- Under is 6-0-1 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 home games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
-122 
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.11 |
+115
|
u8.0 -119
|
+1.5 -155
|
Houston
- Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-1 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mets are 6-0 in Scotts last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+125
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.29 |
-126
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +170
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 on grass.
- Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jose Ramirez o0.5 Total RBIs (+193)
o0.5+193
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+120
|
o7.5 +100 
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
3.96 |
-126
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +170
|
San Diego
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rays last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+197)
o0.5+197
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.90 |
+206
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
5.80 |
-210
|
u9.0 -119
|
-1.5 +100
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 9-0 in Suganos last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Suganos last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rockies are 5-0 in Suganos last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 9-1 in Braves last 10 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Braves last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League West.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o0.5 Total RBIs (+272)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.90 |
+163
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
4.37 |
-170
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +130
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-1 in Ceases last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+254)
o0.5+254
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+146
|
o4.0 -901
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.01 |
-153
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Sandovals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Schlittlers last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 30-12 in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Caleb Durbin o0.5 Total RBIs (+312)
o0.5+312
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.47 |
+165
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
4.57 |
-172
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +130
|
Texas
- Under is 8-0 in Bradfords last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 overall.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 7-0 in Hendersons last 7 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Hendersons last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Brewers are 8-0 in Hendersons last 8 home starts.
- Under is 6-0 in Hendersons last 6 home starts.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
o1.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.65 |
+105
|
o8.0 -155
|
+2.5 -315
|
|
4.74 |
-112
|
u9.0 -119
|
-2.5 +245
|
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as an underdog.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.41 |
-110
|
o5.0 -500
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
3.99 |
+105
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -170
|
Pittsburgh
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Pirates last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 road games.
St. Louis
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 overall.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 on grass.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
-130
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.15 |
+125
|
u11.0 -481
|
+1.5 -140
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-2 in Phillies last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in Painters last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Painters last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Painters last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Tyler Heineman o0.5 Total RBIs (+388)
o0.5+388
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.98 |
-135
|
o9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
5.21 |
+130
|
u9.5 +100
|
+1.5 -125
|
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 road games.
- Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games following a win.
- Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
o0.5+179
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
-125
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.87 |
+115
|
u7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -150
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.61 |
+102
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
4.39 |
-110 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +161
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Bennetts last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Bennetts last 4 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Bennetts last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Bennetts last 4 starts overall.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-0 in Warrens last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
o1.5+200
CIN
@
CHC
Fri, Aug 28 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ian Happ o0.5 Total Home Runs (+425)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
What a week it’s been for Ian Happ. The Cubs outfielder leads the majors with 10 RBI over that span while batting .350 with a ridiculous 1.335 OPS and three dingers to boot. Happ has hit eight of his 23 home runs against either the sinker or the slider – Lowder’s two main offerings. Happ’s on fire and we’re getting a great price on him to go yard again. Play him up to 21¢.
Moneyline
CHC (-183)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
LAD
@
DET
Fri, Aug 28 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Max Muncy u0.5 Total Hits (+134)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The weather report expects the 6th-most suitable pitching weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Today, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.5% rate (98th percentile).. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Max Muncy in today's game.. Max Muncy has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 13.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week.. In the past week, Max Muncy's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16%.
Total RBIs
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+285)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Kevin McGonigle is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
MIA
@
WAS
Fri, Aug 28 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Andres Chaparro o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andres Chaparro is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Nationals Park has the 5th-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. The weather report forecasts the 5th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Andres Chaparro will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Andres Chaparro's launch angle of late (60.5° in the past week) is considerably higher than his 15.5° seasonal angle.
Total RBIs
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+162)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Nationals Park has the 5th-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. The weather report forecasts the 5th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the opposite that Jackson Kent throws from, Heriberto Hernandez will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
HOU
@
NYM
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Christopher Morel o1.5 Total Bases (+280)
Projection 1.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 7th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. There has been a significant improvement in Christopher Morel's launch angle from last season's 17.7° to 20.9° this season.
Total RBIs
Francisco Lindor o0.5 Total RBIs (+219)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Francisco Lindor will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
KC
@
CLE
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jose Ramirez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Jose Ramirez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting base hits to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 stadium in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last 14 days, Salvador Perez has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 9.8% to 14.8%.
SD
@
TB
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Hays o0.5 Total RBIs (+241)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Shane McClanahan throws from, Austin Hays will have the upper hand in today's game.. Austin Hays pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Austin Hays has posted a .319 BABIP since the start of last season.
Total RBIs
Freddy Fermin o0.5 Total RBIs (+317)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Freddy Fermin will hold the platoon advantage over Shane McClanahan today.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.. Freddy Fermin's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 10.8% to 16.2%.
COL
@
ATL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 2.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 10th-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 83°.
Total Bases
Cole Carrigg o1.5 Total Bases (+167)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cole Carrigg is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 4th-best venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.. In the league, Truist Park's centerfield dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 83°.
SEA
@
TOR
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Dylan Cease u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+114)
Projection 7.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Seattle Mariners have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Cease in this game.. Dylan Cease has used his slider 10.7% less often this year (33.7%) than he did last season (44.4%).. Dylan Cease has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 13.03 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 11.98 — a 1.05 K/9 difference.
Total Bases
Kazuma Okamoto u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 6th-worst stadium in baseball for RHB base hits.. The league's 8th-tallest fences can be found at Rogers Centre.. The weather forecast expects the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the same side that Emerson Hancock throws from, Kazuma Okamoto encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup.
BOS
@
NYY
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
NYY (-161)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Boston Red Sox like to generate offense by putting pressure on opposing teams on the basepaths and stealing bases, but Cam Schlittler has a very quick slide-step delivery that can completely neutralize the running game. With his ability to shut down the run game and tunnel his cutter off his four-seam fastball, this looks like a difficult matchup for the Red Sox offense. The bottom of the order, including Mickey Gasper and Andruw Monasterio, doesn't profile well against the high velocity Schlittler can generate at the top of the zone to set up his off-speed pitches with two strikes. Schlittler should be able to attack the zone aggressively against the bottom of the order, keep his pitch count in check, and work deep into the game. The Yankees are trading at 61 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 64-cent favorite, which is why I'm hitting the button.
Total RBIs
Mickey Gasper o0.5 Total RBIs (+308)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Gasper in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The switch-hitting Mickey Gasper will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Cam Schlittler.. Among every team today, the 8th-worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. Mickey Gasper has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.6% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
TEX
@
MIL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Jackson Chourio has real power appeal with two homers in his last six games, a 52.9% hard-hit rate, and an 11.8% barrel rate. Bradford’s air-contact profile and the Rangers’ recent bullpen homer issues give Chourio multiple paths to leave the yard, even without elite fly-ball volume.
Total
o7.5 (-107)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Over 7.5 is a moderate but playable angle with both lineups in respectable form. Texas owns a 111 wRC+ over its last 12 games, while Milwaukee is swinging it even better. The Rangers’ bullpen has allowed hard contact and home run damage lately, giving the Brewers late upside.
CHW
@
MIN
Fri, Aug 28 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Andrew Benintendi u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Bases
Brenton Doyle o1.5 Total Bases (+219)
Projection 1.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run skill, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 83°.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams today.. Brenton Doyle has been unlucky this year, putting up a .250 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .300 — a .050 gap.
PIT
@
STL
Fri, Aug 28 • 8:15 PM ET
Total Bases
JB
Joshua Baez u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Busch Stadium projects as the #29 field in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jared Jones will hold the platoon advantage over Joshua Baez in today's game.. In the last week, Joshua Baez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 21.7% down to 14.3%.. Joshua Baez's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 95.2-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 89.7-mph in the last week's worth of games.. Joshua Baez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off recently, going from 30.4% on the season to 14.3% in the last 7 days.
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences among all parks.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
PHI
@
LAA
Fri, Aug 28 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Josh Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Josh Lowe has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 23% of the time.. The #1 stadium in the game for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Josh Lowe has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.. In the last 7 days, Josh Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.. Josh Lowe's launch angle lately (0.3° over the past week) is quite a bit worse than his 18.5° seasonal figure.
Total Bases
Zach Neto o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run skill, Zach Neto ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zach Neto is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Angel Stadium has the shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 89°.. Zach Neto will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
BAL
@
ATH
Fri, Aug 28 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-shortest average fence height in the league.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate at 98°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 84th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #1 field in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-shortest average fence height in the league.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate at 98°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
AZ
@
SF
Fri, Aug 28 • 10:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Bryce Eldridge ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Eldridge is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF dimensions in the majors.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.7-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Eldridge stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF dimensions in the majors.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.7-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats.. Rafael Devers will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
