MLB Picks

The Tigers are missing three key players (Torres, Baez, Carpenter) and have fallen off a cliff, going 2-13 over their last 15 while scoring just 2.47 runs per game over that span.

The Guardians are hot with eight wins in their last nine and rank second in runs as well as third in OBP among all teams this month.

Pittsburgh has all the momentum after a dominant 7-0 win on Wednesday, and Braxton Ashcraft continues to impress with a strong 2.16 road ERA. While Dustin May has struggled against the Pirates lineup and owns a shaky 4.50 home ERA, Pittsburgh’s offense is producing nearly five runs per game and should stay hot in the series finale.

David Peterson is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA this season, and while he’s been better working behind an opener, his stuff still isn’t what it once was. Peterson is allowing a hard-hit rate of 45.3%, and has seen his WHIP balloon to 1.569. The Nationals offense has already hit him hard once this year, and I'm backing Washington to win again tonight.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is trading at +490 to hit a home run on Thursday, and we are definitely hitting the button on that number, as I price Acuña closer to +350 to go deep. This is a strong edge on a home run prop, and while Sandy Alcantara is one of the better starting pitchers in MLB, Acuña has seen him plenty as a division rival and owns a 1.137 OPS against him in 38 career at-bats. There’s nothing I love more than a mathematical edge on a home run prop for one of the elite players in the game, especially when that player also has extensive familiarity with the opposing starter—and that’s exactly the situation we have with Acuña Jr.

Carlos Rodón has returned from injury, but he hasn’t looked sharp by any means, posting a 5.63 ERA through his first two starts. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has historically had a ton of success against him—even when Rodón was at his best. I usually don’t put much weight into BVP, but Guerrero Jr. going 11-for-18 with two home runs against Rodón is impossible to ignore. That’s complete domination, and +550 feels like a massive number for a hitter with that kind of track record against this pitcher. Even at his peak, Rodón has been vulnerable to right-handed power, and now he’s still working his way back into form after the injury. The familiarity edge almost always favors the hitter, and Guerrero Jr. clearly sees Rodón extremely well.

José Soriano will get the ball for the Los Angeles Angels, and I believe he should be a much bigger favorite against the Athletics on Thursday. The Athletics lineup is built around launch angle and three-run home runs, and that’s exactly the type of offense Soriano is elite at neutralizing. Soriano relies on a heavy, high-velocity sinker that generates a ton of ground balls, which is a nightmare matchup for this Athletics lineup. His pitch profile should allow him to keep the ball out of the air and limit the damage from the Athletics power hitters. The Angels are trading at -106 on the moneyline, but I price them closer to -135, which is why I’m hitting the button.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Colorado Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will likely hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch. Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen. It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.