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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+120 
|
o8.0 -117 
|
+1.5 -176 
|
|
4.13 |
-130 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Detroit
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mizes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Monteros last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mizes last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Allens last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Allens last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.90 |
-155 
|
o9.5 -105
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
5.02 |
+147
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -118
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
o0.5+195
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+101
|
o6.5 -118 
|
-1.5 +170
|
|
3.96 |
-109
|
u7.0 -125
|
+1.5 -190
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+251)
o0.5+251
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+175
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.34 |
-186
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +120 
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+211
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
-115
|
o8.5 -102
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.15 |
+105
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.55 |
-135
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.72 |
+118
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+243)
o0.5+243
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+162
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -129
|
|
4.94 |
-177
|
u8.5 -122
|
-1.5 +120
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in McLeans last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+217)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.32 |
+125
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
|
4.91 |
-135
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.11 |
+110
|
o9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.35 |
-120
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Matthews' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Twins are 6-0 in Matthews' last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Feddes last 8 starts.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-112
|
o8.0 -105
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
4.47 |
+105
|
u8.5 -112
|
+1.5 -167
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 7-0 in Martinezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.37 |
+116
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -184
|
|
4.62 |
-125
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0-2 in Kellys last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Kellys last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kellys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+135)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.19 |
+106
|
o9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.94 |
-115
|
u10.0 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.65 |
-130
|
o11.5 -105
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
5.61 |
+120
|
u11.5 -110
|
+1.5 -134
|
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games following a loss.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
o1.5+175
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.47 |
-125
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.35 |
+115
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -154
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Max Fried o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+1750)
o3.5-165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.21 |
+270
|
o8.0 -115
|
+2.5 -135
|
|
4.91 |
-300 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.5 +110
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Snells last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in Snells last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.24 |
+190
|
o7.0 -118
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
4.72 |
-210
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +110
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Gilberts last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
o1.5+105
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Jo Adell ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Progressive Field projects as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is projected to have the 3rd-highest humidity on the slate today (79%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Progressive Field projects as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-highest humidity on the slate today (79%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Spencer Torkelson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Allen in today's matchup.
MIL
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+167)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best park in the game for run-scoring.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 95°.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Drohan throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have an edge in today's game.
Total Bases
Dane Myers o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dane Myers in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Dane Myers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best park in the game for run-scoring.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 95°.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Drohan throws from, Dane Myers will have an advantage in today's game.
ATL
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+101)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
I mean, this is as good as it gets. Two NL East rivals battling for the division, with Chris Sale and Cristopher Sánchez on the mound. I'm not going to overthink this one. I'm backing Sale and the Braves, especially with Sale coming off a dominant complete-game shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers. You know he's in elite form right now. The Phillies' offense is heavily dependent on production from three left-handed bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez. That makes it difficult to back Philadelphia at this price against a left-hander like Sale. Schwarber and Harper both look to drop the barrel and elevate pitches in the lower half of the strike zone, but Sale can counter that swing path with his sweeping slider. The Braves are trading at 50% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53% favorite in this spot.
Total RBIs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+251)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #9 stadium in the game for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Bryce Harper has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today.
LAA
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Spencer Horwitz o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 79th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Johnson throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have an advantage in today's game.
Strikeouts Thrown
Jared Jones u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-160)
Projection 5.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Jones to throw 78 pitches in this game (9th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. The #4 park in the game for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage in today's game.
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jakob Marsee u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jakob Marsee is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.. LoanDepot Park grades out as the #27 field in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Shota Imanaga will have the handedness advantage over Jakob Marsee in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Michael Conforto u1.5 Total Bases (-245)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Michael Conforto is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. LoanDepot Park grades out as the #27 field in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Michael Conforto pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 77th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+217)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Eldridge in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Bryce Eldridge is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Bryce Eldridge will hold the platoon advantage against Nolan McLean in today's matchup.. Bryce Eldridge hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Carson Benge is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Carson Benge has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Carson Benge will hold that advantage today.
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.99
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Munetaka Murakami will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zebby Matthews today.
Total RBIs
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Hitting from the opposite that Zebby Matthews throws from, Colson Montgomery will have an advantage today.. Colson Montgomery pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 13th-best hitter in the league.. Corey Seager is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Corey Seager will have the handedness advantage over Nick Martinez in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.
Total Bases
Brandon Nimmo o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have the upper hand today.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+131)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Isaac Paredes u1.5 Total Bases (-177)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Isaac Paredes's BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Merrill Kelly will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Isaac Paredes in today's matchup.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 4th-best out of all the teams on the slate today.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total
o9.5 (-115)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Where has this Toronto Blue Jays offense been all year? They exploded for 17 runs across their last two games against the Cleveland Guardians and have a plus matchup against Daniel Lynch, who will be on another short leash tonight. If the Jays can get to Lynch early, they should be able to eat the second-worst bullpen in the bigs alive (5.09 ERA). On the other side, Jameson Taillon is making his first start back from injury after rocking a 11.88 ERA in July and 3.38 ERA in August. With a bullpen that was used up yesterday afternoon, the Royals will do their part to get us across the line.
Total Bases
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. George Springer is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Kauffman Stadium as the 6th-best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+110)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 12th-best home run hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Projection 2.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ben Rice o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Ben Rice is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Ben Rice will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler today.
Total Home Runs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1400)
Projection 0.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Max Fried will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth in today's game.. Jake Cronenworth will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Dylan Crews o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+175)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dylan Crews is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. In Major League Baseball, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Dylan Crews will have the handedness advantage over Blake Snell in today's game.. Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Hits
Freddie Freeman u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Jackson Kent will hold the platoon advantage over Freddie Freeman in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals.
ATH
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+153)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Lawrence Butler is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Among all major league stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Lawrence Butler will have an advantage in today's game.. Lawrence Butler has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
Total RBIs
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Zack Gelof ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
