MLB Picks

It's doubleheader day in Cincinnati, and the Reds have a sizable edge on the mound with Chase Burns getting the ball in Game 1 and working on a possible bigger leash. He has quickly emerged as one of the NL Cy Young betting favorites at 20/1, and the Reds have won seven straight Burns starts with the run line cashing in every one. On the other side, Slade Cecconi has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts and could be in for another rough outing if Cleveland asks him to wear some innings. If the Reds jump out early, there's also a good chance the Guardians turn to the B bullpen to preserve their top relievers for Game 2, where Cincinnati doesn't have a listed starter. The winds are blowing out at Great American Ball Park, which only adds to the run-scoring upside while giving even more support to the strikeout-heavy Burns. I'm playing this down to +115/+120.

The left-handed Kyle Stowers gets to unleash his Top-50 bat speed against one of the most homer-friendly pitchers in baseball, Aaron Nola. Only Jeffrey Springs has allowed more home runs this season, and Springs at least has the excuse of pitching at Sutter Health Field. Nola doesn't. Left-handed hitters have done the most damage, hitting nearly twice as many home runs as righties against the Phillies starter since 2024. He ranks 25th among MLB starters in HR/9 and 24th in HR/FB rate. Six of Nola's last eight starts have turned into multi-homer outings, with 14 long balls allowed over that 42-inning stretch. You could make a case for several Marlins bats today, but I like the price on Stowers the most. He also projects as Miami's most likely hitter to go deep. Heriberto Hernandez at +450 or better was another strong consideration, and pairing the two in an HRRBI stack at plus money is worth a look.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ketel Marte in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humid conditions on the slate (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% in the last 7 days.. Despite posting a .326 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ketel Marte has been unlucky given the .033 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .359.

Dean Kremer is always a good pitcher fade and even better today on the road with 18-mph winds blowing out to center field. Lefties always give the Baltimore starter trouble, with 70% of his home runs allowed this year and 66% since 2024. That puts me on a left-handed bat of Detroit, and I'm settling on the rookie, Kevin McGonigle, at +488. The AL rookie of the year betting favorite (-240) has a fair price of around +420, with his last HR cashing at +375 vs. another righty in Ryan Johnson. Looking under the hood, his IdealAtkAng% tops the team over the last week, and he is getting a ton of balls in play with just a 4% walk rate and hitting .306 over his last nine games, which comes with a hit in all but one of those games. Is he crushing the ball right now? Not exactly, but this matchup and wind are enough to aid any hitter, especially one who owns a .859 OPS vs. right-handers and might not have to face any left-handed options out of the Baltimore bullpen today.

The Mets have consistently hit Chris Sale well, producing a .920 OPS against him. New York’s bats are also heating up, ranking fifth in OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Christian Scott faces a daunting challenge against a Braves lineup that's been one of baseball’s best against right-handed pitching this month. Add in Atlanta’s struggling bullpen, and this game has a strong chance to clear the total.

Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 87°.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.. Over the last 14 days, Salvador Perez has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.1% to 19%.. Salvador Perez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 93.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Michael Busch is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Michael Busch will have the upper hand in today's game.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 12th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Jeremy Pena will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Reid Detmers today.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.

Sutter Health Park grades out as the #2 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 103°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters.. Carlos Narvaez will hold the platoon advantage over Gage Jump today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Oracle Park's right field fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.9-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 9th-best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average talent.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the best stadium in MLB for right-handed home runs.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Julio Rodriguez will have the handedness advantage over Justin Wrobleski in today's game.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.