Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 11, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
PHI
@
DET
Sat, Jul 11 • 6:10 PM ET
u7.5 (-112)
The Phillies have scored two or fewer in four of the last six games, and the Tigers have allowed three or fewer in six straight and nine of 10. Detroit starts Casey Mize, who has a 2.64 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 0.977 WHIP, and is striking out a batter an inning, all career bests. He has a 1.32 ERA and 0.585 WHIP in his last two starts.
The key will be whether Sanchez can shake off his funk. In addition to allowing three homers and five runs to K.C. last time out, he’s allowed 4+ runs and more hits than innings in three of his last five outings.
DET (+124)
The Philadelphia Phillies are nine games over .500; the Detroit Tigers are six under, but things aren’t clear-cut. The Tigers actually have a superior run differential. At +31, they’re third best in the A.L., while the Phillies are -17. Meanwhile, the Phillies are starting Cristopher Sanchez. Everyone in the organization said he was fine after getting rocked his last time out, but with an 84 OPS+ in July, the Phillies aren’t hitting well enough to overcome another tough night for their ace.
KC
@
BAL
Sat, Jul 11 • 7:05 PM ET
HOU
@
TEX
Sat, Jul 11 • 7:05 PM ET
CHC
@
CIN
Sat, Jul 11 • 7:10 PM ET
CHC (-105)
In-form offenses have teed off on Nick Lodolo all season long. Isolating matchups with teams ranking Top-20 in ISO and OPS in the 10 games prior, Lodolo owns a 7.52 ERA and has allowed 2.05 homers per nine innings.
The Chicago Cubs rank Top-5 in both categories over that span so Lodolo is in for a treat.
Back Chicago to -120.
o10.0 (-105)
Nick Lodolo is sporting an 8.27 ERA over four home games against teams ranking Top-20 in ISO and OPS in the 10 games prior to facing him.
Javier Assad ranks in the 16th percentile in xBA and third percentile in hard hit rate. That’s not an ideal profile for success against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark.
I expect a shootout, and would play the Over to -115.
ATL
@
STL
Sat, Jul 11 • 7:15 PM ET
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-112)
Reynaldo Lopez has not fared well against lefties this season, and that’s been especially evident of late. He ranks in the 23rd percentile in xwOBA vs. LHH over his last six starts.
JJ Wetherholt has had a field day in similar spots, clearing 1.5 H+R+R in 14 of 18 games (77.8%) against starting pitchers slotting in the 30th percentile or worse in the six stars prior.
Bet to -140.
TOR
@
SD
Sat, Jul 11 • 8:40 PM ET
For my same-game parlay, I'm backing Ernie Clement over 1.5 total bases, Trey Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts, and the Blue Jays moneyline, with Toronto riding a three-game winning streak against Walker Buehler's 5.07 ERA.
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
AZ
@
LAD
Sat, Jul 11 • 9:10 PM ET
Yoshinobu Yamamoto should have a vintage outing against a bad Arizona lineup (70 wRC+ against RHP). He's in peak form, posting a 0.77 WHIP and .163 AVG against in his last eight starts, but L.A.'s lineup is not (99 wRC+ against RHP in L14). Arizona's bullpen has been lights out in that span (2.91 ERA, 3.05 SIERA), and the team is 3-13 O/U in its last 16 away contests.
The Dodgers essentially punted Game 1 (a 3-9 loss) after Shohei Ohtani was scratched from his scheduled start, so they're well-positioned to strike back on Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will positively cook with his unhittable splitter (19 wRC+) against a Diamondbacks lineup with the worst results in the league against the offering (-13 runs above average). Brandon Pfaadt (4.95 FIP, 95 Stuff+) has been hit around by these L.A. hitters (.298 AVG).
TB
@
BOS
Fri, Jul 17 • 1:35 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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