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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 30, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+134 
|
o7.5 -104
|
+1.5 -161 
|
|
4.53 |
-142
|
u7.5 -107
|
-1.5 +150
|
Texas
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 on fieldturf.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 road games.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5 +200
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.02 |
+124
|
o9.5 -107
|
+1.5 -161
|
|
4.90 |
-137
|
u9.5 -107
|
-1.5 +146
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Obers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Obers last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Twins are 5-0 in Obers last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-2 in Twins last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
o1.5 +130
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.61 |
+101
|
o7.5 -112
|
-1.5 +168
|
|
4.32 |
-112
|
u8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -183
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5 +150
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
+105
|
o8.5 +101
|
+1.5 -199 
|
|
4.89 |
-116
|
u8.5 -106
|
-1.5 +165
|
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Cubs are 6-0 in Assads last 6 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 5-0 in Assads last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5 +194
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.18 |
+110 
|
o7.0 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.49 |
-121
|
u7.5 -131
|
-1.5 +173
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-0 in Perezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Mets last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Tyrone Taylor o1.5 Total Bases (+250)
o1.5 +250
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.73 |
-112
|
o9.5 -103
|
-1.5 +138
|
|
5.07 |
+105
|
u9.5 -106
|
+1.5 -148
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 8-0 in Pirates last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in Greenes last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Reds last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Marcell Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5 +190
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.62 |
+129
|
o9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -154
|
|
6.03 |
-142
|
u10.0 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Atlanta
- Under is 7-0 in Braves last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
o1.5 +155
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.78 |
-161
|
o10.0 -115
|
-1.5 -103
|
|
5.79 |
+146
|
u10.5 -110 
|
+1.5 -107
|
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-2-1 in last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Tyler Soderstrom o1.5 Total Bases (+121)
o1.5 +121
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.22 |
+119
|
o8.5 -103
|
+1.5 -183
|
|
5.05 |
-126
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +162
|
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-3 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
JP Sears o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o3.5 +120
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.94 |
+136
|
o8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -148
|
|
5.82 |
-148
|
u8.5 +101
|
-1.5 +135
|
Seattle
- Under is 4-0-1 in Woos last 5 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Woos last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Mariners last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 8-0 in Sasakis last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Sasakis last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Sasakis last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Andy Pages o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
o1.5 +145
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-103
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-121
|
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 road games.
Chi. Cubs
- Under is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 interleague starts.
- Cubs are 5-1 in Imanagas last 6 starts vs. American League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-116
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-103
|
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Over is 6-0 in Skenes' last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Skenes' last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Skenes' last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Skenes' last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in Greenes last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-0 in Reds last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 6-2 in Reds last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 7-1 in Reds last 8 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-107
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-120 
|
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Phillies last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2-2 in Phillies last 12 interleague games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 6-0 in Youngs last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 6-0 in Youngs last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Youngs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+129
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Under is 5-0 in Leahys last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-0 in Leahys last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 home games.
- Under is 6-1 in Ceases last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-161
|
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 games as an underdog.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-137
|
-- |
-- |
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. National League West.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-126
|
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 8-1 in Marlins last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0 in Peraltas last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Mets last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+114
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Griffins last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Nationals are 7-0 in Griffins last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Atlanta
- Under is 6-0 in Elders last 6 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+124
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-149
|
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 games as a favorite.
- Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-1 in Rangers last 9 during game 1 of a series.
Houston
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-137
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
+109
|
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Suganos last 4 interleague starts.
- Rockies are 4-0 in Suganos last 4 home starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-183
|
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
+158
|
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Drohans last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0-1 in Angels last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Angels last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-148
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
+119
|
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 overall.
Athletics
- Under is 6-0 in last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in last 6 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+119
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-3 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 overall.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 on grass.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+146
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-191
|
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Pred. Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
+158
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-191
|
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 8-0 in Twins last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Twins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Twins last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 overall.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Under is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 overall.
TEX
@
TB
Thu, Jul 30 • 12:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+143)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 15th-best batter in the majors.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #4 park in the majors for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Home Runs
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.16
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cedric Mullins in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 4th-best venue in the league for left-handed home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Cole Winn throws from, Cedric Mullins will have an edge in today's game.. Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
KC
@
MIN
Thu, Jul 30 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Brooks Lee o1.5 Total Bases (+143)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Out of every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Brooks Lee will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Lane Thomas o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Lane Thomas is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Lane Thomas has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.9-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 92.5-mph.. Lane Thomas's launch angle in recent games (21.7° in the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 18.3° seasonal figure.
NYY
@
CHW
Thu, Jul 30 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Weather's short extension robs his fastball of late deception, and Chicago's lefties are recognizing it early, exposing his 1.42 HR/9 to their .168 ISO against southpaws. Burke isn't airtight either: a 3.81 home xFIP and 1.11 HR/9 should allow the Yankees bats to do their share of the scoring today. Both bullpens raise the floor even further; Yankees relievers are walking 13.0% of hitters over the last 14 days, while Chicago's pen carries a 4.09 ERA. I am taking the Over to 8.5 runs.
Moneyline
CHW (-112)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Chicago starter Sean Burke’s 83rd-percentile extension (6.8 feet) allows his 94.9 mph heater to play like 96+ mph, lowering hard contact (35.0% Hard-Hit rate), which should slow a longball-reliant Yankees lineup. Conversely, Yankees starter Ryan Weathers' shorter extension (5.8 feet) leaves his four-seamer sitting in the zone, exposing him and his .441 xSLG to Chicago's .168 ISO against lefties. Take the Sox today!
CHC
@
STL
Thu, Jul 30 • 2:15 PM ET
Moneyline
CHC (-121)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Shota Imanaga is coming off two straight quality starts, tossing 13 consecutive scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has struggled against the Cubs throughout his career, with Chicago slashing .343/.413/.552 against the right-hander. Back the Cubs on Thursday afternoon.
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Ivan Herrera hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
MIA
@
NYM
Thu, Jul 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Brett Baty o1.5 Total Bases (+273)
Projection 1.22
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Brett Baty will hold the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Brett Baty tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Eury Perez.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Brett Baty's launch angle this year (11.3°) is considerably higher than his 5.7° angle last year.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Heriberto Hernandez pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Heriberto Hernandez has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.1% seasonal rate to 20% over the past 14 days.. Heriberto Hernandez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year's 93.6-mph average.
PIT
@
CIN
Thu, Jul 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jacob Gonzalez o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Jacob Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Rhett Lowder in today's game.. Jacob Gonzalez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. Jacob Gonzalez has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 3.4% seasonal rate to 8.7% in the last two weeks.. Jacob Gonzalez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 90-mph.
Total Bases
Dane Myers u1.5 Total Bases (-235)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dane Myers is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 6th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°.. Hitting from the same side that Yohan Ramirez throws from, Dane Myers meets a tough challenge in today's game.. In the past 14 days, Dane Myers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.. Dane Myers's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 15.1% on the season to 0% in the last week.
WAS
@
ATL
Thu, Jul 30 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+139)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dylan Crews is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.5-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
Total Bases
Daylen Lile o1.5 Total Bases (+131)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Truist Park ranks as the #5 field in Major League Baseball for overall lefty offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.5-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
BOS
@
ATH
Thu, Jul 30 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Sutter Health Park ranks as the #2 venue in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 103°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Lawrence Butler will have the upper hand today.
Total Bases
Tyler Soderstrom o1.5 Total Bases (+116)
Projection 2.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Soderstrom in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Tyler Soderstrom is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #2 venue in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 103°.
SF
@
SD
Thu, Jul 30 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Manny Machado will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Willy Adames o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Because of JP Sears's large platoon split, Willy Adames will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.
SEA
@
LAD
Thu, Jul 30 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 2.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 10th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his batting average ability.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the best stadium in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest fences among all major league parks.. Julio Rodriguez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as MLB's 9th-best home run hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the best stadium in the league for lefty home runs.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest fences among all major league parks.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Roki Sasaki.. Cal Raleigh has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.6-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.1-mph average.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Total Hits
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits (-130)
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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