MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kyle Manzardo logo
Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Total Home Runs (+5500)
Projection 0.22
Best Odds
Pick made: 47 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most humid conditions on the slate today at 76%.. Batting from the opposite that Kendry Rojas throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Travis Bazzana logo
Travis Bazzana o1.5 Total Bases (+151)
Projection 1.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Travis Bazzana is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The weather report calls for the 4th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.35
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. This game is forecasted to have the 12th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker logo
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Kyle Tucker ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Because of Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, Kyle Tucker will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ New York Yankees logo NYY Tue, Jul 21 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jacob Gonzalez logo
Jacob Gonzalez u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.72
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Gonzalez in the 12th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Jacob Gonzalez is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium profiles as the #27 ballpark in MLB for LHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 5th-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Yankee Stadium.. Among every team playing today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the New York Yankees.
Total Bases
Austin Wells logo
Austin Wells u1.5 Total Bases (-290)
Projection 0.62
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Wells's BABIP skill is projected in the 3rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Wells is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.. Austin Wells has been pulled from the game early 22% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. Yankee Stadium profiles as the #27 ballpark in MLB for LHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 5th-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Yankee Stadium.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Tue, Jul 21 • 7:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Daulton Varsho logo
Daulton Varsho o0.5 Total RBIs (+239)
Projection 0.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Daulton Varsho will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen today.. Extreme groundball bats like Daulton Varsho tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
Total RBIs
Taylor Walls logo
Taylor Walls o0.5 Total RBIs (+417)
Projection 0.32
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this season (20°) is considerably better than his 14.9° figure last season.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Tue, Jul 21 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+141)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Willson Contreras projects as the 19th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Willson Contreras pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela logo
Ceddanne Rafaela o1.5 Total Bases (+137)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.15
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Truist Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
Total Bases
Drake Baldwin logo
Drake Baldwin o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.88
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Drake Baldwin ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to LHB.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Andrew Vaughn logo
Andrew Vaughn o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Luis Robert Jr. logo
Luis Robert Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+192)
Projection 1.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Grading out in the 93rd percentile, the hardest ball Luis Robert Jr. has hit since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.8 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+121)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. The #10 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Bryce Eldridge logo
Bryce Eldridge o1.5 Total Bases (+121)
Projection 1.92
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Bryce Eldridge ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Eldridge has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The #10 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Wyatt Langford logo
Wyatt Langford u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.92
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #2 stadium in the game for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest CF dimensions in the majors are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Over the last week, Wyatt Langford's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.7% down to 0%.. Wyatt Langford's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 92-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 65.1-mph in the last 7 days.
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford logo
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Wyatt Langford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Noah Schultz in today's game... and even better, Schultz has a large platoon split.. Wyatt Langford will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
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Detroit Tigers logo DET @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Chicago Cubs logo CHC (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but it's the Cubs whom I trust more in this spot. They have been dialed in at the plate of late, and I'm expecting Framber Valdez to return to his struggles against a good-hitting Cubbies side. 

Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki logo
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+123)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 24 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Seiya Suzuki generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Houston Astros logo HOU Tue, Jul 21 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Griffin Conine logo
Griffin Conine u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.66
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
30% of the time that Griffin Conine has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pinch hit for.. Minute Maid Park grades out as the #26 field in Major League Baseball for overall left-handed offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
Total Bases
Jakob Marsee logo
Jakob Marsee u1.5 Total Bases (-270)
Projection 0.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jakob Marsee's BABIP ability is projected in the 22nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jakob Marsee is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.. Minute Maid Park grades out as the #26 field in Major League Baseball for overall left-handed offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
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Washington Nationals logo WAS @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Tue, Jul 21 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar logo
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+137)
Projection 2.09
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. Ezequiel Tovar will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases
Dylan Crews logo
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+103)
Projection 2.32
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. The Colorado Rockies infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today.
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:38 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt logo
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Hitting from the opposite that Walbert Urena throws from, JJ Wetherholt will have an advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Jo Adell logo
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Jo Adell will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's matchup.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds logo CIN (-102)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Let's dial up a bet on the Reds tonight behind Chase Burns and his excellent strikeout ability. The M's are the third-worst K team at home, and Burns has racked up 7+ Ks in 8 of his last 10 appearances. That'll be enough to help the Reds pick up the win. 

Total Bases
Sal Stewart logo
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.89
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Sal Stewart is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Sal Stewart has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Colby Thomas logo
Colby Thomas u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
68% of the time that Colby Thomas has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching on the slate.. Colby Thomas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team playing today.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Colby Thomas today.
Total Hits
Tim Tawa logo
Tim Tawa u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Tim Tawa is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching on the slate.. Hitting from the same side that Jack Perkins throws from, Tim Tawa will not have the upper hand in today's matchup.. In today's matchup, Tim Tawa is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.5% rate (86th percentile).. Tim Tawa has compiled a .275 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 10th percentile.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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