MLB Picks

The Brewers enter Friday with the highest rated offense on Batters-Box, posting an average hitter matchup rating of 0.501 with five elite rated hitters and two more carrying strong ratings. Despite their recent struggles, Milwaukee draws a favorable matchup against Rockies right hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate while allowing the most hard contact among today's starters. When Sugano receives a poor rating on Batters-Box, he consistently struggles to limit damage, allowing 6+ hits in six of his last ten poorly rated outings.

Jared Jones has averaged more than 12 punchouts per nine innings in three consecutive starts, over which time he allowed two runs. He is pitching like an ace.

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to hit for power against lefties but their low 5.9% walk rate in July could lead to less traffic on the basepaths when that power arrives, making it more difficult to score in bulk.

Bet the Under to -120.

The Philadelphia Phillies own a very underwhelming .296 wOBA and have struck out at the sixth highest rate vs. righties in July. That should spell trouble against Cam Schlittler, who ranks above the 90th percentile in both xwOBA and K%.

While the New York Yankees own excellent numbers against lefties this season, they have hit .204 with a 32.7K% during the month of July.

Bet the Under to -125.

German Marquez enters Friday in a difficult matchup for his strikeout prop. The Padres right hander draws a Marlins lineup that features no hitters above the league average strikeout rate, while also owning the lowest matchup strikeout rate among starters on the slate. Despite Miami's recent offensive struggles, Marquez has struggled to miss bats, posting just a 13.83% strikeout rate over his last 5 starts. His recent 6.30 ERA, 5.68 xERA, and 1.80 WHIP also point toward continued regression, making the under on his strikeout prop an appealing look.

The Over has a realistic path behind Roki Sasaki’s recent struggles and a vulnerable Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen. Los Angeles’ relief corps owns a 5.07 FIP over its last 19.1 innings while allowing 1.86 HR/9. The Mets have been solid offensively, while Sean Manaea’s recent xERA leaves room for Dodgers scoring too.

Munetaka Murakami is my favorite floor play on Friday's slate. While the hits+runs+RBI prop is an option, his hit prop is worth the price. The White Sox rookie has been excellent against right handed pitching, posting a .273 BA, .922 OPS, and 54.5% hard hit rate over his last 30 at bats. He enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, recording a hit 66.67% of the time, while covering over 73% of Spencer Arrighetti's arsenal. With Arrighetti struggling against lefties and allowing elite contact numbers recently, I expect Murakami to deliver at the plate.

Tyler Soderstrom is in an excellent spot to take advantage of Twins right hander Zebby Matthews, who has been one of my favorite pitchers to fade. Over his last 3 starts, Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, and has allowed a 42.55% hard hit rate and 12.77% barrel rate. Meanwhile, Soderstrom has been crushing right handed pitching, batting .346 with a .731 SLG and 1.164 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances. With Matthews struggling against left handed bats and Soderstrom covering 99.2% of his pitch mix, this is a prime home run spot.

Alec Burleson enters Friday with an elite Batters-Box rating while owning 100% pitch mix coverage against Reds right hander Rhett Lowder. The Cardinals slugger has been locked in against right handed pitching, posting a .308 BA, .343 wOBA, 45.5% hard hit rate, and 18.2% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances. Lowder has struggled against left handed hitters on the road, allowing a .350 BA, .583 SLG, and .444 wOBA. With Burleson heating up and holding a favorable matchup, this is a strong spot for the St. Louis slugger to make an impact.

Bryce Eldridge enters Friday in a prime spot against Angels right hander Grayson Rodriguez, who has struggled throughout the season while allowing elevated hard contact and barrel rates. Eldridge owns an elite Batters-Box rating with 84.2% arsenal coverage against Rodriguez's pitch mix. The Giants slugger has also been locked in against right handed pitching recently, posting strong power metrics over his last 30 plate appearances. With Rodriguez struggling against left handed hitters and allowing elite contact numbers, Eldridge has the matchup advantage to deliver extra bases in this spot.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.