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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 28, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.20 |
+175 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.14 |
-184 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +120
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 on grass.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Petersons last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Petersons last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-210
|
o7.5 +105
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
3.32 |
+200
|
u11.0 -578 
|
+1.5 +105
|
LA Dodgers
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Dodgers are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
Detroit
- Under is 9-0 in Tigers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 vs. National League West.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+282)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
-145 
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
4.12 |
+140
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -125
|
Miami
- Over is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts overall.
Washington
- Under is 6-0-1 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 home games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
-124 
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.02 |
+115
|
u8.0 -117 
|
+1.5 -155
|
Houston
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games.
- Astros are 9-4 in their last 13 games as an underdog.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in Scotts last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+125
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.14 |
-135
|
u8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +165
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 on grass.
- Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 road games.
Cleveland
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+235
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
+120
|
o7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.04 |
-125
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +170
|
San Diego
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rays last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
+199
|
o8.5 -124
|
+1.5 -112
|
|
5.47 |
-219
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +100
|
Colorado
- Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 games as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 9-1 in Braves last 10 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Braves last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League West.
Top Projection
Willi Castro o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+242
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
+125
|
-- |
-- |
|
4.40 |
-145
|
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 games as a road favorite.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Blue Jays last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.05 |
+150
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
3.99 |
-157
|
u8.0 -127
|
-1.5 +135
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog.
- Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Red Sox are 24-3 in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.
NY Yankees
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 on grass.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
+165
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
4.44 |
-172
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +130
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games as a road underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
+105
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -225
|
|
4.71 |
-111
|
u9.0 -110
|
-1.5 +155
|
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as an underdog.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 overall.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.37 |
-110
|
o7.0 -114
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
3.92 |
+105
|
u7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -175
|
Pittsburgh
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Pirates last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 road games.
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 overall.
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 on grass.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
-134
|
o8.0 -109
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.03 |
+125
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -140
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-2 in Phillies last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games following a win.
- Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a win.
LA Angels
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Bryan De La Cruz u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
u0.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.87 |
-135
|
-- |
-- |
|
5.13 |
+115
|
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games.
- Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
-124
|
o7.5 -114
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.67 |
+110
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -160
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 road games.
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.61 |
+102
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
4.39 |
-110 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +161
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-0 in Warrens last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
o1.5+200
CIN
@
CHC
Fri, Aug 28 • 2:20 PM ET
Moneyline
CHC (-183)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Total
o8.5 (-103)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
The Cubs have the best offense in baseball, and two starters with ERAs over 5 are taking the mound today.
The Over has cashed in eight of David Peterson's last 10 appearances, and both of Chicago's games vs. Rhett Lowder this season.
LAD
@
DET
Fri, Aug 28 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 87th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Despite posting a .303 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Teoscar Hernandez has been unlucky given the .021 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.
Total RBIs
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total RBIs (+184)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Mookie Betts is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Over the last 7 days, Mookie Betts's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45%.
MIA
@
WAS
Fri, Aug 28 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. CJ Abrams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's game.. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. CJ Abrams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's game.. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
HOU
@
NYM
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Hunter Brown o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+126)
Projection 5.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Hunter Brown in the 81st percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.. Compared to league average, Hunter Brown has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 4.2 adjusted pitches each game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citi Field as the 10th-best venue in the game for strikeouts.. Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. Hunter Brown was firing on all cylinders in his last game started and accumulated 9 strikeouts.
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.07
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most humidity on the slate at 76%.. Batting from the opposite that Christian Scott throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an advantage in today's matchup.
KC
@
CLE
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Travis Bazzana o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Travis Bazzana is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting base hits to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Michael Wacha throws from, Travis Bazzana will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Travis Bazzana will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Carter Jensen u1.5 Total Bases (-165)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Progressive Field has the 7th-deepest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. In Major League Baseball, the 4th-tallest fence height (on average) are at Progressive Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions on the schedule today.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Carter Jensen in today's matchup.. Ranking in the 24th percentile, Carter Jensen sports a .301 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.
SD
@
TB
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 20th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (39.9% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+189)
Projection 0.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. The 4th-shallowest left field fences in MLB are found in Tropicana Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane McClanahan throws from, Manny Machado will have an advantage today.
COL
@
ATL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Connor Norby o1.5 Total Bases (+198)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Connor Norby is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°.
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 12th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°.. This year, Hunter Goodman's 16.7% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 98th percentile among his peers.
BOS
@
NYY
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
NYY (-161)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Boston Red Sox like to generate offense by putting pressure on opposing teams on the basepaths and stealing bases, but Cam Schlittler has a very quick slide-step delivery that can completely neutralize the running game. With his ability to shut down the run game and tunnel his cutter off his four-seam fastball, this looks like a difficult matchup for the Red Sox offense. The bottom of the order, including Mickey Gasper and Andruw Monasterio, doesn't profile well against the high velocity Schlittler can generate at the top of the zone to set up his off-speed pitches with two strikes. Schlittler should be able to attack the zone aggressively against the bottom of the order, keep his pitch count in check, and work deep into the game. The Yankees are trading at 61 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 64-cent favorite, which is why I'm hitting the button.
Total Bases
Caleb Durbin o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Caleb Durbin is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Among every team today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.
TEX
@
MIL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Brandon Nimmo o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. The #8 ballpark in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to better offense.
Total Hits
Joc Pederson u0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 8th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Joc Pederson has been pinch hit for 40% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Joc Pederson today.. Joc Pederson has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 10.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
CHW
@
MIN
Fri, Aug 28 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 15th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Colson Montgomery is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. Colson Montgomery will hold the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer in today's game.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams today.
Total Hits
Munetaka Murakami u0.5 Total Hits (+150)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In today's matchup, Munetaka Murakami is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (88th percentile).. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. Over the last 7 days, Munetaka Murakami's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 20.3% down to 0%.. Munetaka Murakami's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, going from 15.2% on the season to 0% over the past week.. Despite posting a .366 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Munetaka Murakami has been very fortunate given the .029 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .337.
PIT
@
STL
Fri, Aug 28 • 8:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences among all parks.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
PHI
@
LAA
Fri, Aug 28 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Angel Stadium has the shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 87°.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Mike Trout will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Vaughn Grissom o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Vaughn Grissom is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. Angel Stadium has the shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 87°.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Vaughn Grissom will hold that advantage in today's game.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
