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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 30, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
+100 
|
o9.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +165 
|
|
4.34 |
+105 
|
u9.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -167
|
Miami
- Under is 2-0-2 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Junks last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+216
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 +100
|
|
5.16 |
-220
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 -106
|
Colorado
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-2 in Rockies last 7 vs. National League East.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Rockies last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Atlanta
- Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League West.
- Over is 9-1 in Braves last 10 home games.
- Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.75 |
-114
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +148
|
|
4.05 |
+110
|
u8.0 -112
|
+1.5 -155
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Suarezs last 7 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Red Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
NY Yankees
- Under is 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Warrens last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Warrens last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+215)
o1.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.21 |
-130
|
o8.0 -109
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
3.88 |
+125 
|
u9.5 -220
|
+1.5 -140
|
Seattle
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Mariners are 10-1 in Gilberts last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Toronto
- Under is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Blue Jays last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
-168
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +110 
|
|
4.10 |
+162
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -115
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Dodgers last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Glasnows last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Detroit
- Under is 9-0 in Tigers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 8-0 in Tigers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. National League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+152
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -150 
|
|
4.29 |
-160
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +140
|
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 vs. American League East.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rays last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rasmussens last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+212)
o0.5+212
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.81 |
+170
|
o7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -129
|
|
4.76 |
-175
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +120
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 overall.
- Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Lugos last 5 starts as an underdog.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
+151
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
4.99 |
-158
|
u8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +135
|
Texas
- Under is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Rockers last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockers last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockers last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 home games.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.07 |
+110
|
o8.0 -141
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.60 |
-115
|
u9.0 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as an underdog.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Minnesota
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-0 in Matthews' last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Twins are 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
o0.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
-113
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.14 |
+106
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -160
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 6-0-1 in Pirates last 7 overall.
- Pirates are 8-0 in Ashcrafts last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Pirates last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 vs. National League Central.
St. Louis
- Under is 8-1-1 in Cardinals last 10 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.99 |
+111
|
o8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.16 |
-119
|
u9.0 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
Houston
- Over is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 road games.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 vs. National League East.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
o0.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.11 |
-140
|
o10.0 -115
|
-1.5 +105
|
|
5.20 |
+136
|
u10.5 -110
|
+1.5 -115
|
Baltimore
- Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 home starts.
Top Projection
Jonah Heim o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
o0.5+800
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.68 |
-180
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
3.47 |
+173
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -105
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-2 in Wheelers last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Wheelers last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Kikuchis last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Kikuchis last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+252
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.80 |
+130
|
o9.0 -118
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.97 |
-134
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +155
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games.
- Under is 7-0 in Burns' last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Reds are 5-0 in Burns' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Cubs are 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Pete Crow-Armstrong u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
u0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
+110
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.03 |
-143
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -235
|
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-2 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Giants last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Roupps last 5 road starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 vs. National League East.
Atlanta
- Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 home games.
- Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.28 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 vs. National League East.
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Rays last 4 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.44 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Diego
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 vs. National League Central.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Singers last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-1 in Singers last 7 starts vs. National League West.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.69 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.55 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts.
Washington
- Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 games a home underdog.
- Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.94 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.88 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 road games.
- Over is 7-2 in Mariners last 9 on grass.
- Over is 7-2 in Mariners last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Mariners last 8 vs. American League East.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.12 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.57 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.63 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Under is 8-0 in Tigers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 road games.
Minnesota
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 7-2 in Twins last 9 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Twins last 9 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.06 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.01 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1-1 in last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Texas
- Under is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.41 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.17 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Houston
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Astros last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 13-4 in Astros last 17 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.50 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.37 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.71 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 road games.
LA Angels
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Angels last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
MIA
@
WAS
Sun, Aug 30 • 12:15 PM ET
Moneyline
WAS (+100)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
I’m grabbing the Nationals at plus-money behind Andrew Alvarez. Washington holds the offensive edge over Miami (98 wRC+, .178 ISO vs. 87 wRC+, .106 ISO). Miami’s bullpen is laboring with a 4.72 SIERA and a weak 5.9% K-BB%, giving the Nats the late-game hammer at home.
Total Hits
Abimelec Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+182)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Abimelec Ortiz in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Abimelec Ortiz has been pulled from the game early 29% of the time.. The #4 ballpark in the majors for suppressing BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to worse offense.. In the last 7 days, Abimelec Ortiz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.1% down to 0%.
COL
@
ATL
Sun, Aug 30 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as MLB's 13th-best home run hitter.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The #4 field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to better offense.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 10th-best hitter in the majors.. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #4 field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to better offense.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
BOS
@
NYY
Sun, Aug 30 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Willson Contreras o0.5 Total Home Runs (+388)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Willson Contreras has done damage vs. right-handed pitching this season with 19 dingers and a .513 SLG – placing him in the top 25 in both categories across the majors.
Nine of Contreras’ 23 home runs have come against the sinker, which Will Warren throws about 27% of the time.
Total
u8.5 (-126)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
SEA
@
TOR
Sun, Aug 30 • 1:37 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Max Scherzer u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-149)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Max Scherzer has a chance to shove against the Seattle Mariners, who have been ice cold at the dish as of late and most of the season. Six of Seattle's nine batters are hitting below .185 over their last 30 at-bats versus right-handed pitching, generating little to no hard contact or barrels. Scherzer has also done a very good job limiting hard-hit and barreled balls over his last five starts while posting a 3.31 xERA. The Mariners own an 81 wRC+, .620 OPS and 27.4% strikeout rate over their last six games. With Toronto fighting for a possible playoff berth, Mad Max should be locked in this afternoon. Take this down to -150.
Total RBIs
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #6 venue in MLB for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Taylor Ward hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last week, Taylor Ward's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.1-mph over the course of the season to 98.9-mph of late.. Taylor Ward has been unlucky this year, posting a .316 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .338 — a .022 disparity.
LAD
@
DET
Sun, Aug 30 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Tommy Edman u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the majors, Comerica Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Tommy Edman will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. Tommy Edman's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.3-mph mark last season has decreased to 85.6-mph.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Edman's true offensive ability to be a .296, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .041 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .337 wOBA.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
Projection 1.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at Comerica Park is the 2nd-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.. Spencer Torkelson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.
SD
@
TB
Sun, Aug 30 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Jorge Mateo u0.5 Total Hits (+110)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Jorge Mateo is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (89th percentile).. In notching a .188 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jorge Mateo is ranked in the 3rd percentile for offensive skills.. In notching a .144 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jorge Mateo has performed in the 3rd percentile.
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Junior Caminero projects as the 19th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the 2nd-best stadium in MLB for righty home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Junior Caminero will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
KC
@
CLE
Sun, Aug 30 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Progressive Field projects as the #2 stadium in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, Progressive Field's left field dimensions are the shallowest.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jo Adell will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+139)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Progressive Field projects as the #2 stadium in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Bobby Witt Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
TEX
@
MIL
Sun, Aug 30 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Joc Pederson u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In today's game, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.9% rate (91st percentile).. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 5th-strongest among all the teams playing today.. Joc Pederson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Joc Pederson grades out in the 9th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .211.. Checking in at the 11th percentile, Joc Pederson sits with a .257 BABIP this year.
Strikeouts Thrown
Dustin May o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+325)
Projection 5.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Brennan Miller profiles as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches in this game.. The #3 park in the game for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Home field advantage generally improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Dustin May will hold that advantage in today's game.. Dustin May has used his cutter 14.5% more often this season (23.7%) than he did last year (9.2%).
CHW
@
MIN
Sun, Aug 30 • 2:10 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Zebby Matthews o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Zebby Matthews enters Sunday with the worst pitcher rating on the day, facing a fully elite-rated White Sox lineup. Matthews has improved recently, but he is still allowing over 54% hard contact across his last five outings. Chicago's bats have stayed hot, posting a 124 wRC+, .350 wOBA and .785 OPS over their last six games. All six elite-rated hitters will bat left-handed, a matchup Matthews has struggled with all season. With Chicago focused on this afternoon's matchup, take the White Sox down to -125.
Moneyline
CHW (+101)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
I’m taking Chicago at plus-money. The Pale Hose offense is surging at the top of the league over the past week (141 wRC+, .372 wOBA, 13.3% BB%). Zebby Matthews faces a tough assignment, especially with Minnesota’s bullpen in shambles (4.56 SIERA, 2.16 WHIP, 10.26 ERA). There is value on the road dog today.
PIT
@
STL
Sun, Aug 30 • 2:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Nick Yorke u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nick Yorke is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium projects as the #29 field in MLB for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Nick Yorke has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nick Yorke today.. Nick Yorke and his 6.3° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 16th percentile, among the lowest in the game since the start of last season.
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryan Reynolds's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 90°.. Bryan Reynolds has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 99.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 94.7-mph.
HOU
@
NYM
Sun, Aug 30 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the game.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Ethan Pecko throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge in today's game.. Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Carson Benge is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.. Carson Benge will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ethan Pecko in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
BAL
@
ATH
Sun, Aug 30 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Encarnacion-Strand o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.23
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Sutter Health Park as the best venue in the majors for righty home runs.. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the 3rd-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Carlos Cortes o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 venue in the league for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the 3rd-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 95°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.7-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for bats.. Carlos Cortes will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and the cherry on top, Bassitt has a large platoon split.
PHI
@
LAA
Sun, Aug 30 • 4:07 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Yusei Kikuchi o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+118)
Projection 5.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yusei Kikuchi in the 75th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.. Yusei Kikuchi has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 5.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.. The #4 ballpark in MLB for boosting strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Yusei Kikuchi will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his metrics in all categories.. Yusei Kikuchi's change-up utilization has increased by 9.3% from last year to this one (12.2% to 21.5%) .
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In MLB, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.
CIN
@
CHC
Sun, Aug 30 • 7:20 PM ET
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez u1.5 Total Bases (-235)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the league, the 7th-highest average fence height are at Wrigley Field.. Typically, bats like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shota Imanaga.. The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team in action today.. Eugenio Suarez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Eugenio Suarez has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 10.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last two weeks.
Total Bases
Michael Conforto u1.5 Total Bases (-275)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 16th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Michael Conforto is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.. In the league, the 7th-highest average fence height are at Wrigley Field.. Michael Conforto pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams playing today.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
David Fry u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
David Fry is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest fences in the league.. Batting from the same side that Casey Mize throws from, David Fry will not have the upper hand today.
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Riley Greene is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Progressive Field projects as the #3 stadium in the game for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 6th-shallowest right field fences in the majors.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 86%.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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