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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
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Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 17, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.44 |
-135 
|
o8.5 -135 
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
4.49 |
+123 
|
u9.5 -138 
|
+1.5 -136
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
- Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 games on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pirates last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Kyle Harrison o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+1000)
o4.5-105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.86 |
-155
|
o9.5 -112
|
-1.5 +105
|
|
5.49 |
+145 
|
u10.0 -116 
|
+1.5 -109 
|
LA Dodgers
- Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Reds last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+156)
o0.5+156
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.71 |
+235
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 +102
|
|
4.91 |
-270
|
u8.0 -120 
|
-1.5 -114
|
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in Rasmussens last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts on fieldturf.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
o0.5+475
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7.22 |
-158
|
o10.5 -125
|
-1.5 -103
|
|
5.77 |
+144
|
u11.5 -136
|
+1.5 -110 
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 road games.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 vs. National League West.
Colorado
- Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Gordons last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rockies last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+102)
o0.5+102
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
+126
|
o8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -162
|
|
4.96 |
-145
|
u9.0 -110
|
-1.5 +146
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Royals are 5-0 in Lugos last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.07 |
+120
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.14 |
-135
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +155
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-2 in McLeans last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in McLeans last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+201
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.07 |
+112
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
3.91 |
-125
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +172
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 on grass.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115)
o1.5-105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-134
|
o7.5 -129
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.09 |
+123
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -141
|
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 road starts.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-2 in Rangers last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.10 |
-129
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.85 |
+114
|
u7.5 -104
|
+1.5 -156
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0 in Twins last 6 games following a win.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 15-3 in Angels last 18 vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
MIL
@
PIT
Thu, Sep 17 • 12:35 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Kyle Harrison o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+900)
Projection 5.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kyle Harrison in the 90th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rafael Flores, Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin).. Kyle Harrison was in good form in his last game started and accumulated 8 strikeouts.. Among all SPs, Kyle Harrison's fastball spin rate of 2366 rpm ranks in the 75th percentile this year.. Ranking in the 82nd percentile, Kyle Harrison recorded a 12.5% Swinging Strike% this year.
Strikeouts Thrown
Wilber Dotel o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-116)
Projection 2.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
LAD
@
CIN
Thu, Sep 17 • 12:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Will Smith projects as the 18th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 90°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Will Smith has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Mookie Betts o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Mookie Betts is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for RHB home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 90°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.
ATH
@
TB
Thu, Sep 17 • 1:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Tropicana Field grades out as the #1 field in the game for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Shea Langeliers pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Shea Langeliers's launch angle this season (19.4°) is significantly higher than his 16.3° mark last season.
Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Projection 0.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Tropicana Field grades out as the #1 field in the game for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Shea Langeliers pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Shea Langeliers's launch angle this season (19.4°) is significantly higher than his 16.3° mark last season.
SD
@
COL
Thu, Sep 17 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run ability.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Mickey Moniak will hold the platoon advantage over Michael King in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Jake Cronenworth o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 field in MLB for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Gordon today.. Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Cronenworth has had some very poor luck given the .039 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.
KC
@
HOU
Thu, Sep 17 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Salvador Perez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.9-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.1-mph average.. Despite posting a .283 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Salvador Perez has been unlucky given the .042 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.
PHI
@
NYM
Thu, Sep 17 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 2.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The weather report calls for the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge today.
Total Home Runs
Brett Baty o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Projection 0.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brett Baty in the 75th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. The weather report calls for the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Brett Baty will have an edge in today's game.. Brett Baty has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
DET
@
CHW
Thu, Sep 17 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Tommy Pham u0.5 Total Hits (+182)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the most suitable for pitching of the day.. Typically, batters like Tommy Pham who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez.. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Tommy Pham ranks in just the 6th percentile with a 7.2° launch angle, which is one of the most groundball-inducing angles in the game.. The standard deviation of Tommy Pham's launch angle since the start of last season (29.2°) is in the 25th percentile. A high deviation like this tends to lead to a lower rate of hits on balls in play.
Total Bases
Brenton Doyle u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.. This year, Brenton Doyle has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 45% of his appearances when starting against lefty on the mound.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the most suitable for pitching of the day.. Brenton Doyle's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 93.1-mph EV last season has fallen to 87.7-mph.. Brenton Doyle's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 14.6% to 7.2%.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-124)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 55%, I'm definitely buying the Boston Red Sox on Polymarket, as I price them closer to a 60% favorite. That's a much larger edge than we typically see in the market. Sonny Gray has been an ace for the Red Sox this season, and this matchup against the Rangers sets up very well for him. Texas has some free swingers in the lineup, such as Josh Jung and Jake Burger, who are always looking to pull the ball. Gray carves up aggressive hitters by expanding the zone and forcing them to chase breaking balls off the plate. It's not like I expect the left-handed bats to get much going either. Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager will have to deal with Gray's two-seamer running in on their hands, and neither hitter profiles particularly well against Gray.
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
MIN
@
LAA
Thu, Sep 17 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.
Total RBIs
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Josh Lowe will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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