Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 3, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
STL
@
CHC
Fri, Jul 3 • 4:05 PM ET
o10.5 (-115)
David Peterson has allowed 2.76 homers per nine innings over the last 30 days, which is the highest total among all of today’s projected starters.
While Andre Pallante has mostly pitched well of late, it’s worth noting one of the hiccups came against the Chicago Cubs – he allowed four runs in three innings May 29.
With struggling bullpens behind these starters, the sky is the limit.
Play the Over to -120.
STL (+110)
Andre Pallante has posted an xERA of 3.5 or lower in six of his last eight games, allowing two runs or fewer six times.
The St. Louis Cardinals are primed to make noise against David Peterson, who ranks in the sixth percentile in Pitcher Run Value.
Pallante should get the necessary run support to win.
Back the Cardinals to +100.
PIT
@
WAS
Fri, Jul 3 • 6:45 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: +114)
Mitch Keller and Foster Griffin have consistently kept opponents off the board early, combining for dominant first-inning numbers this season. With Pittsburgh scoreless in the opening frame in six straight games and Washington also struggling to strike first lately, another quiet first inning is the most likely outcome.
James Wood o0.5 Total Home Runs (+274)
James Wood's recent numbers absolutely scream #DUE. Over his last 30 at bats against right handed pitching, he is batting just .083 with a .125 SLG, but the underlying metrics tell a completely different story. During that stretch, Wood owns an absurd 92.3% hard hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate, making it hard to believe the results will not follow. Tonight, he faces Mitch Keller, who has surrendered a 44.2% hard hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate, 2.02 HR/9, and .650 xSLG to left handed hitters over his last 60 batters faced.
MIN
@
NYY
Fri, Jul 3 • 7:05 PM ET
o9.5 (-122)
I’m playing the Over up to 10 because Paredes’ contact profile is hard to trust against any lineup with a pulse. He has allowed a 51.8% hard-hit rate, .459 xSLG, and 5.44 xERA while striking out only 11.8% of hitters. The Yankees are ice cold, but this is the right matchup to create traffic and end the drought. While the Twins will hang around, it won't come without giving up runs
MIN +1.5 (-125)
Gerrit Cole still carries name value, but this New York Yankees team is hard to trust by margin. New York is hitting .137 during its seven-game losing streak and has been outscored 43-17. Cole remains the better starter, but his 21.3% strikeout rate is well below peak form, while Minnesota has scored 96 runs with 25 homers over its last 16 games. Mike Paredes is shaky (to put it kindly), but current form makes this run line playable.
BAL
@
CIN
Fri, Jul 3 • 7:10 PM ET
Trevor Rogers has quietly found his rhythm, posting a 2.52 FIP while staying Under both earned runs and hits allowed in three straight starts. Against a Reds lineup batting just .230 over the last two weeks, he's well-positioned to keep rolling as Gunnar Henderson's hot bat provides offensive support.
CHW
@
CLE
Fri, Jul 3 • 7:10 PM ET
NYM
@
ATL
Fri, Jul 3 • 7:15 PM ET
Juan Soto o2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+123)
Juan Soto draws one of the best matchups on the board against Grant Holmes, earning one of the day's highest Batters-Box matchup ratings. Soto owns 89% arsenal coverage against Holmes' below average pitch mix, while Holmes has struggled against left handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact and loud contact quality. Soto has also been seeing the ball well, posting a 52.4% hard hit rate and 1.042 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against right handed pitching. His elite on base ability gives him multiple paths to cash this prop, and with Holmes' recent command issues, the plus money price offers solid value.
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+326)
I have not been able to get on the right side of Juan Soto this season, but this is a matchup worth backing. Grant Holmes has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 44% hard hit rate and 63.6% elevation rate, while the last 60 lefties he has faced own a .574 xSLG and .362 xwOBA against him. Soto also owns an 89% arsenal coverage against Holmes' below average pitch mix. Add in Soto's recent form, a 52.4% hard hit rate, .609 SLG, and 1.042 OPS over his last 30 at-bats versus righties, and the long ball is firmly in play.
SF
@
COL
Fri, Jul 3 • 8:10 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: +114)
Logan Webb's 13-1 NRFI record and seven consecutive scoreless first innings make him well-equipped to cool off a Rockies team that has scored early in three straight games. Ryan Feltner has also excelled in the opening frame, while San Francisco hasn't scored in the first inning in five consecutive contests.
TB
@
HOU
Fri, Jul 3 • 8:15 PM ET
u9.0 (-120)
The Tampa Bay Rays lack power, particularly on the road. No team has posted a lower ISO, or hit fewer home runs, in away games when facing right-handed pitching.
Nick Martinez has allowed only 0.87 homers per nine innings in away games while walking just 4.2% of batters. Those outputs put a ceiling on opposing offenses.
Bet to -130.
HOU (-110)
Nick Martinez owns an unfathomably low 18.9% ground ball rate over the last 30 days. Martinez conceded at least three earned runs in four of five starts during that stretch.
The Houston Astros are equipped to exploit his struggles, ranking seventh in FB% and tied for 11th in ISO against right-handed pitching since June 1.
Back them to cool off the Tampa Bay Rays up to -120.
BOS
@
LAA
Fri, Jul 3 • 9:38 PM ET
Jake Bennett has quickly developed into a reliable arm, posting a 1.51 xERA over his last two starts while consistently limiting hard contact. Facing an Angels lineup with just a 67 wRC+ and .268 wOBA over the last six games, Bennett is well-positioned for another efficient outing.
YRFI/NRFI (No: -116)
Jake Bennett has yet to allow a first-inning run through six major league starts, while Reid Detmers owns a 13-4 NRFI record and a 3.06 xERA over his last five appearances. Both offenses have struggled to score early, making another scoreless opening frame an appealing angle.
MIA
@
ATH
Fri, Jul 3 • 9:40 PM ET
MIL
@
AZ
Fri, Jul 3 • 9:45 PM ET
u9.0 (-120)
Kyle Harrison ranks in the 93rd percentile in Pitcher Run Value and has held opponents to two or less in 14 of 15 starts.
The Milwaukee Brewers are tied for 20th in runs scored over the past two weeks, and will likely need a ceiling performance to push this game Over the total.
Bet the Under to -130.
MIL (-155)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are excellent against lefties and yet it likely won’t matter. Kyle Harrison has allowed two or less in five of six games vs. Top-10 teams in OPS against lefties.
The Milwaukee Brewers rank fifth in wOBA vs. righties and Jose Cabrera’s indicators are worse than his counting stats.
Back Milwaukee to -165.
TOR
@
SEA
Fri, Jul 3 • 10:10 PM ET
Dylan Cease o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
SD
@
LAD
Fri, Jul 3 • 10:10 PM ET
The Padres have hit the Under in 13 Michael King's last 17 starts, whereas the Dodgers have done so in 10 of Shohei Ohtani's 13 outings. These two highly effective starting pitchers will counteract two hot lineups, so this total is too high.
You're rarely going to get a bargain on the Dodgers, and you certainly aren't here with Shohei Ohtani on the bump and San Diego having allowed 35 runs in its last two games. It's a sell-high spot on Ohtani, whose 3.33 xFIP and 3.42 botERA indicate regression to his 1.58 ERA. It's also a buy-low spot on the Padres, whose lineup has an identical wRC+ (130) as L.A. against RHP in the last 14 days
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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