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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+115 
|
o8.0 -118 
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.13 |
-123 
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mizes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Monteros last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mizes last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Allens last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Allens last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.93 |
-153
|
o9.5 -103
|
-1.5 +100 
|
|
4.98 |
+143
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -115
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
o0.5+198
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.69 |
+101
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
3.89 |
-110
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +155
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
o0.5+257
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.26 |
+170
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -130 
|
|
5.56 |
-190
|
u8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +115
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
-115
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.30 |
+105
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -160 
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
-150 
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
3.57 |
+143
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -130
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+183)
o0.5+183
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+166
|
o7.5 -112
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.45 |
-180
|
u8.0 -125
|
-1.5 +120
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in McLeans last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.20 |
+125
|
o7.5 -141
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
|
4.94 |
-135
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.27 |
+102
|
o8.5 -135
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
5.44 |
-111
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +165
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Matthews' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Twins are 6-0 in Matthews' last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Feddes last 8 starts.
Top Projection
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
o0.5+191
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
-104
|
o8.0 -125
|
-1.5 +158
|
|
4.59 |
-105
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 7-0 in Martinezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+116
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.49 |
-125
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0-2 in Kellys last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Kellys last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kellys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+135)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.17 |
+105
|
o9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.01 |
-115
|
u10.0 -114
|
-1.5 +140
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.52 |
-120
|
o11.5 +100
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
5.72 |
+115
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -135
|
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games following a loss.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.58 |
-110
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.36 |
+105
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -155
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.48 |
+253
|
o8.0 -125
|
+2.0 -124
|
|
4.91 |
-280
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.0 -104
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Snells last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in Snells last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.23 |
+200
|
o5.0 -481
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.94 |
-210
|
u7.5 -122
|
-1.5 +105
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Gilberts last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+158
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-121)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Not only is Montero having one of the best years of his career and is in a great matchup against Cleveland, but the trends are on our side, too. The Under is 7-0 in Montero's last seven starts as a road underdog, and you shouldn't expect Cleveland to smudge that perfect mark, either. It helps us here that the Guardians are the worst-hitting team with runners in scoring position in the big leagues, owning just a .682 OPS in that situation this season. All the numbers point toward the Under here.
Moneyline
DET (+119)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'm giving the Detroit Tigers the benefit of the doubt in this one, with Keider Montero historically finding success against this Guardians lineup. He's limited Cleveland to a .169 xBA and .223 xwOBA over nearly 80 plate appearances and is going up against a team that owns just a .682 OPS with runners in scoring position - the worst mark in the majors. That'll play today. On the other side, the Tigers have beat up on Logan Allen, registering a .355 average in 38 at-bats. This includes a 5-for-8 mark from Spencer Torkelson. If Detroit is scoring, he's probably at the center of it. The dogs are barking.
MIL
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+335)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Milwaukee’s leader in barrel rate against Lowder’s pitch mix this season is…Jake Bauers!
The veteran lefty profiles amazingly well, generating barrels at nearly a 15% clip while posting a healthy .231 ISO to boot.
Bauers also owns a magnificent track record when facing Rhett Lowder, going 5-for-8 with a pair of homers.
Total
o9.5 (-107)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Rhett Lowder’s ERA sits at 8.13 when isolating seven matchups against teams in the Top-10 in OBP and xwOBA vs. righties.
That includes two starts against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which Lowder combined to allow nine runs in just over 10 innings of work.
Drohan owns a 4.70 xERA the past month and the Cincinnati Reds do possess real power.
Play to 53%.
ATL
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber is hitting a respectable .263 against Chris Sale. More importantly, he has generated real power with a pair of home runs and a triple.
Sale attacks left-handed hitters with sliders, sinkers, and four-seams. Schwarber hasn’t taken a lefty yard on the slider this season but owns ISOs of .255 and .404 against sinkers and four-seamers.
Total
u6.5 (+109)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Chris Sale posted a 2.60 xERA the past month while allowing just three barrels in 27 innings of work. It’s almost impossible to square him up.
Cristopher Sanchez is sporting a 2.51 FIP in Philadelphia, and conceded two or less in 14 of 16 starts – including a zero against the Braves.
Play to 52%.
LAA
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (+100)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Angels starter Ryan Johnson sports a confidence-shattering 5.53 xERA, league-high 5.54 xFIP and pedestrian 16.5 strikeout percentage, so with the Pirates ranking first in the majors in wOBA against righties and overall wOBAcon, I'm aniticipating Pittsburgh having a big night at the dish. The Angels will only need to chip in to send this total Over the number, and Pirates righy Jared Jones have allowed three or more runs in four of his past six starts.
Spread
PIT -1.5 (+120)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Angels rank last in wOBA this season while also sitting 29th in xwOBA over the past 30 days, so this is a perfect spot for Pirates promising righty Jared Jones to cash in on statistical correction. He sports a respectable 3.84 xERA and 3.83 xFIP across 18 starters this season, so his 4.83 ERA is misleading. The Pirates are also set to have success at the plate with Angels righty Ryan Johnson looking overmatched in the majors with a confidence-shattering 5.53 xERA, league-high 5.54 xFIP and pedestrian 16.5 strikeout percentage. Pittsburgh paces the league in wOBA against righties, after all.
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Roman Anthony o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP talent, Roman Anthony is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Roman Anthony will have an advantage today.. Roman Anthony hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Michael Busch o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
There’s been a considerable dip in Michael Busch’s ISO against righties this season. He posted a rock-solid .245 mark across the past two seasons but is all the way down to a .141 ISO in 2026. So, with Miami righty Janson Junk allowing a healthy 16.7 blast-contact percentage at home, this is a long number for Busch to cash in on statistical correction and leave the yard tonight.
Total
u8.5 (-126)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Miami Marlins rank 27th in xwOBA and 25th in ISO over the past 30 days, while also checking in 20th in wOBA against lefties for the season. On top of that, Miami has also played to the Under in 26 of their last 40 home games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI). This is also a potential letdown spot for Chicago following the split of a key, divisional series against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which the Cubs scattered just 11 runs across the final three games.
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Considering Matt Wilkinson's large platoon split, Marcus Semien will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Marcus Semien will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Carson Benge is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Carson Benge has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Carson Benge will hold that advantage today.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Progressive Field.. Given Andrew Sears's large platoon split, Jo Adell will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Kevin McGonigle has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Zebby Matthews u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+104)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Zebby Matthews is rolling, staying under 2.5 earned runs in three straight outings while posting a 1.92 FIP over his last two appearances. He has avoided walks and homers, and now faces a White Sox lineup with a 66 wRC+ recently.
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 2.01
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #6 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 87°.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Victor Mesa Jr. u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Mesa Jr. in the 17th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Victor Mesa Jr. is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Globe Life Field as the worst park in the league for run-scoring.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -12° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. In today's matchup, Victor Mesa Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.5% rate (87th percentile).
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage in today's game.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage over Cristian Javier today.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today.
Total Bases
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (+117)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Corbin Carroll projects as the 20th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristian Javier throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone both stand out in a strong matchup for the Royals, making it nearly impossible to choose just one. Kansas City’s young power hitters boast one of the highest matchup ratings on the slate while covering nearly 100% of Jameson Taillon’s pitch mix. Caglianone has also made the most of his elite Batters-Box ratings, leaving the yard 22% of the time across 30 such ratings this season. Over his last 10 games, the big fella has posted a .512 SLG and .186 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.
Total Home Runs
Carter Jensen o0.5 Total Home Runs (+388)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Carter Jensen finds himself in an appealing spot against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon, who owns the worst rating among pitchers in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. Jensen also boasts the third-highest matchup rating, trailing only Yordan Alvarez and teammate Jac Caglianone. The Royals slugger has been crushing the ball over his last 10 games, posting a .914 SLG, .543 ISO, 63% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate. Taillon has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 14.3% barrel rate and 71.4% elevation rate over his last 60 lefties. That combination gives Jensen plenty of home run upside.
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Projection 2.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 88°.
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 88°.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ezequiel Tovar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-121)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
For as good as Fried has been, Buehler actually has a good history against the Yankees, striking them out at a 30% clip while limiting them to a .229 xBA. I just don't see him outdueling Fried in this one, especially since the Padres own just a .691 OPS against lefties. The trends are on our side in this one, too, as both teams are a top-six Under team in baseball, hitting at a 54% clip or better this season.
Moneyline
NYY (-116)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Walker Buehler has coughed up three long balls across his last two starts and will be in trouble against a New York Yankees team looking to deliver the San Diego Padres their eighth loss in their last 11 games. Jazz Chisholm will likely be the offensive catalyst tonight - he's 6-for-10 with two homers against Buehler in his career (.356 xBA). On the mound for the pinstripes is Max Fried, who's allowed just three earned runs across his last 21 1/3 innings pitched. What does this all add up to? A Yankees W.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+233)
Projection 1.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dylan Crews is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the best venue in the league for right-handed home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Dylan Crews will have the handedness advantage over Blake Snell in today's game.. Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.. Hitting from the same side that Jackson Kent throws from, Kyle Tucker will have a disadvantage in today's matchup.. Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals.
ATH
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
SEA (-209)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Seattle has the cleanest full-game profile with JT Ginn struggling badly and Logan Gilbert in much better form. Ginn owns a 6.73 FIP over the last two weeks with command and homer issues, while Gilbert’s 2.86 xERA and Seattle’s 111 wRC+ give the Mariners the stronger edge.
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Zack Gelof ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Gelof is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
