MLB Picks

Brandon Lowe's over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI at plus money stands out as one of the best values on Friday's slate. Despite entering the second half on a cold streak, Lowe owns an 81% arsenal coverage against Gavin Williams and has consistently thrived in elite rated road matchups. Across the last three seasons, he's recorded a hit in over 90% of those spots while frequently clearing this prop. Williams has also been vulnerable to left handed hitters, allowing a .314 xBA and .437 xSLG over his last 60 faced. With extra rest from the break, Lowe is primed to bounce back.

Matt Olson finds himself in an excellent spot coming out of the All-Star break against Rangers right hander Cal Quantrill. The Texas starter has been crushed by left handed hitters this season, allowing plenty of elevation, hard contact, and strong expected numbers. Those struggles line up perfectly with Olson, who was swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball against right handed pitching before the break. Over his last 30 at-bats versus righties, Olson has posted a .593 SLG, .860 OPS, .408 ISO, along with a 55.6% hard hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate. It's a matchup that sets up well for another big night from the Braves slugger.

Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is in a prime spot to kick off the second half against Twins right hander Bailey Ober. PCA owns an elite Batters-Box rating, covers 100% of Ober's pitch mix, and enters the matchup red hot against right handed pitching. Over his last 60 plate appearances versus righties, Crow-Armstrong has posted a .366 BA, .714 SLG, 1.197 OPS, .347 ISO, and a 13.3% barrel rate. Ober has struggled against left handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact and elevation, setting Crow-Armstrong up for extra bases, and potentially even another home run.

Diamondbacks right hander Merrill Kelly finds himself in a brutal matchup against Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson, who enters Friday with an elite Batters-Box rating and 100% arsenal coverage against Kelly’s pitch mix. Kelly has struggled significantly against left handed hitters this season, allowing plenty of hard contact and power production. Burleson has continued to generate elite contact quality against right handed pitching despite a recent cold streak, making this a matchup worth targeting. With Kelly’s struggles and Burleson’s ability to elevate the baseball, this spot sets up as a potential power opportunity, with a Burleson nuke in play.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.