MLB Picks

Despite last night being filled with a ton of runs, I think this one stays Under due to how well both pitchers have been performing over their last five games. Wrobleski owns a 2.17 ERA, 2.99 xERA, and 0.90 WHIP, while Wheeler has posted a 2.37 ERA, 1.90 xERA, and 0.99 WHIP during that same stretch.

My projection lands at 9.6 total runs, so this is a very small edge, but at the plus-money price, I'll go that direction and play it to -105. Neither starter is built to fully shut this down and I'd be suprised if they did. For example, Chandler’s 13% walk rate creates free traffic in Yankee Stadium, while Warren’s recent form leaves the Buccos with a real scoring path. Ultimately, I do not need Pittsburgh to dominate Warren; we just need them to contribute enough. I think there’s plenty of power in the lineup to do that.
 

This might be the best pitching matchup of the day with Drew Rasmussen taking on Kevin Gausman, and with how putrid Toronto's offense has been, it's tough to find a path to both teams scoring. The Blue Jays have scored just two runs over their last three games, and their only win since the All-Star break was a 1-0 shutout. Toronto's high-leverage bullpen arms are all available, and the Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between these clubs. The Jays own the worst offense in baseball by wRC+ over the last 30 days and now face a pitcher who has fared well vs. them throughout his career. Rasmussen owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 13 career appearances against Toronto, while right-handed hitters are batting just .159 against him this season.

Ranger Suárez finds himself in an excellent matchup against an Orioles lineup that has struggled to make consistent contact against left handed pitching. Batters-Box highlights this spot, with Baltimore bringing several high strikeout bats into the matchup. Over their last 60 at bats against lefties, multiple Orioles hitters have shown elevated strikeout rates. With Suárez posting a 30% strikeout rate over his last five outings, I believe he has the arsenal to take advantage of this matchup. 

Matt Olson enters Tuesday in an excellent matchup against Padres right hander Walker Buehler. The Braves slugger carries one of the highest Batters-Box ratings on the slate, along with an 83.5% arsenal coverage against Buehler’s pitch mix. Olson has shown plenty of power upside this season, especially against right handed pitching, where he has generated elite batted ball numbers over his last 60 at bats. Meanwhile, Buehler has struggled mightily against left handed hitters, allowing strong contact and elevated damage metrics. With this matchup lining up perfectly for Olson, he is one of the better power targets on the board.

The Rangers swing and miss vs. southpaws at a high rate, posting the MLB's fourth-worst K% vs. left-handed pitching. Noah Schultz rolls into today's start with extra rest and projects for 85 pitches, but has a ceiling in the 90s. THE BAT has this fair price at around -110, and the projections at Covers are forecasting 4.71 punchouts on the road.  Schultz is a 22-year-old giant as a 6-foot-10 left-hander who might see the leash grow in relation to the White Sox's division hopes. He can blow past his K total with four of his 11 starts going for 6+ Ks. He missed all of June with a knee injury, so this extended rest should be very beneficial. Texas might have the No.4 offense vs. LHP with a wRC+ of 109, but the 25% K rate is the same as the Rockies. 

The Under case is built around Valdez’s recent form and two bullpens trending in the right direction. Detroit’s bullpen owns a 3.11 xERA over two weeks, while Chicago’s relief corps has a 3.34 xERA over four games. Neither lineup is showing overwhelming power despite recent offensive production overall tonight either.

Griffin Conine finds himself in an excellent spot against Astros right hander Tatsuya Imai. The matchup grades out beautifully, with Imai struggling against left handed hitters while allowing strong contact and elevated power numbers. Conine enters this matchup with an elite Batters-Box rating and nearly complete coverage of Imai’s pitch mix. Over his last 30 at bats against right handed pitching, the Marlins slugger has shown impressive power numbers, including a .449 ISO and 16.7% barrel rate. With this type of matchup and plus money available, Conine is one of the strongest HRR targets on the board.

Mead is 8-for-16 after the break with four extra-base hits, and this should have a fair price of +350 at Coors Field vs. Michael Lorenzen. The Colorado starter has allowed just one dinger over his last four starts, but he has the worst BlastCont% among all MLB starters today (last 30 days), and the homers could be coming. Looking back over the last two seasons, only two other starters today have a worse HR/9 than Lorenzen. Ball Park Pal has this as the second-best HR setting on the board today.

Walbert Urena is sporting a 2.83 ERA and has allowed 0.63 homers per nine innings over five matchups with Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. righties. 

While the Los Angeles Angels have strung together hits against southpaws, they sit 22nd in OPS and 29th in FB% in July.

It’ll be tough to generate homers, and I don’t see 10+ runs being scored without plenty of aid from power.

I like the Under to -125.

Arizona's rotation injuries are opening the door for Triple-A arm Kohl Drake to make his MLB debut today, but this does not look like a pitcher ready for the big leagues. He owns a 6.92 ERA at Triple-A, has issued 42 walks over his last 100 innings, and allows more than a hit per inning. Right-handed hitters have accounted for 15 of the 16 homers he's allowed, but even lefties have found success, batting .351 against him. Jacob Wilson has already gone deep twice since the All-Star break, including last night in Arizona. He's riding an eight-game hitting streak with six multi-hit performances during that stretch. He is absolutely raking right now and gets a matchup against a pitcher who could struggle with the bright lights and command in his MLB debut. This is the biggest home run price I've backed all year, but the entire Athletics lineup is live in this matchup. I'm playing Wilson down to +750.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.