Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on June 23, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
HOU
@
TOR
Tue, Jun 23 • 4:07 PM ET
SEA
@
PIT
Tue, Jun 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Pirates righty Mitch Keller has given up runs in bunches with a 7.64 ERA, 6.33 xERA and 42.6% hard-hit rate over his last seven outings. While it’s been a similar struggle for Mariners starter George Kirby of late, his 4.80 xERA is notably below his 6.27 ERA across his past six starts, and his .388 BABIP and 57.8% strand rate during the skid indicate he’s been a touch unlucky. Turning to Mariners outfielder Luke Raley, he’s hit righties to the tune of a .364 wOBA, .284 ISO and .850 OPS and stands to have ample RBI opportunities hitting in the middle of the Seattle lineup.
Josh Naylor o0.5 Total Home Runs (+660)
Generous winds are blowing out to right field at PNC Park, and the pitching matchup is working in their favor as well. Keller has allowed 4+ runs in all but one of his last seven starts, posting a 7.64 ERA over that stretch. His flyball rate is lower than his career average, and his HR/FB rate is starting to normalize after some early-season months of keeping it below 10%. His SIERA and xFIP are both at five-year highs, suggesting these bad times are here to stay. Naylor has seen Keller eight times in his career, taking him deep once while hitting .375. I love the Mariners team total Over 4.5 today, and Naylor is one of the better +EV home run props on the board with a fair price closer to +520.
TEX
@
MIA
Tue, Jun 23 • 6:40 PM ET
NYY
@
DET
Tue, Jun 23 • 6:40 PM ET
KC
@
TB
Tue, Jun 23 • 6:40 PM ET
PHI
@
WAS
Tue, Jun 23 • 6:45 PM ET
PHI -1.5 (+105)
This projects as the best ML/RL bet on the slate today, with a projected ROI of 22% and a fair price roughly 65 cents shorter than the current odds. It's a great matchup for the Phillies against Zack Littell, who owns a 6.31 ERA at home and is coming off a start where he allowed seven runs. Left-handed hitters have crushed him this season, accounting for 16 home runs and an OPS north of 1.000. That's good news for Philadelphia's best bats, which lean heavily to the left side. The Phillies' biggest offensive weakness is strikeouts, and Littell simply doesn't miss many bats. On the other side, Jesus Luzardo has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, and Philadelphia also owns the bullpen edge. Everything lines up for the Phillies to win this game by multiple runs.
CHC
@
NYM
Tue, Jun 23 • 7:10 PM ET
The Cubs have kicked their funk at the plate to pace the majors in wOBA while ranking fifth in ISO and fourth in xwOBA across their past nine games. They’ll also face reeling Mets righty Kodai Senga, and his 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile and has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings. I do expect the Mets to chip in, too. New York ranks 21st in BABIP despite a 10th-ranked xwOBA to go along with a fifth-ranked hard-hit rate across the past 30 days, after all. FInally, Cubs first baseman Michael Busch is heating up with an impressive .395 wOBA, .195 ISO and .885 OPS across his past 100 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+382)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He leads MLB in slugging over the last two weeks at .935, and his .500 ISO trails only Shohei Ohtani. This is a great price in a game that could feature multiple home runs given the pitching matchup. Kodai Senga owns the 13th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters this season, and only three qualified starters have a worse groundball rate. He's allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four starts, and this will be just his second outing after missing three weeks with a spine/arm injury. Senga may be the biggest pitching target on the slate today, and getting a red-hot hitter at +300 or better in a plus-plus home run matchup is an easy way to make the HR card.
MIL
@
CIN
Tue, Jun 23 • 7:10 PM ET
CLE
@
CHW
Tue, Jun 23 • 7:40 PM ET
o7.0 (-120)
The Chicago White Sox have posted high-end metrics across the board against left-handed pitching. They have also hit more homers than anybody.
Even without Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter, the Cleveland Guardians have scored at least three runs in five of their last six games. They should still chip in.
Play the Over to -130.
CHW (-105)
The Chicago White Sox are one of the league’s best offenses against southpaws, ranking fifth in wOBA, fourth in OPS, and first in ISO. Parker Messick owns an xFIP of 4.01 and SIERA of 4.25 over the past 30 days. Both of those outputs are well above the 3.21 ERA he has posted, a sign a dip could be coming.
LAD
@
MIN
Tue, Jun 23 • 7:40 PM ET
u8.5 (+105)
The Dodgers' bullpen has been dominant lately, posting a 2.71 xERA while limiting opponents to a 27.3% hard-hit rate over its last 26 innings. Justin Wrobleski typically pitches deep into games, and Minnesota may struggle to generate enough offense against an elite staff despite its recent hot stretch.
LAD -1.5 (+101)
Justin Wrobleski continues to thrive for Los Angeles, posting a 2.72 ERA and walking just 0.76 hitters per nine innings over his last four appearances. Minnesota's bullpen owns a 5.50 FIP and has allowed 2.08 home runs per nine innings over the last two weeks, and they will start an opener here.
AZ
@
STL
Tue, Jun 23 • 7:45 PM ET
BOS
@
COL
Tue, Jun 23 • 8:40 PM ET
BAL
@
LAA
Tue, Jun 23 • 9:38 PM ET
ATL
@
SD
Tue, Jun 23 • 9:40 PM ET
u8.5 (-131)
Atlanta owns a 67 wRC+ and is averaging just three runs per game over its last six contests. San Diego's .313 wOBA is merely average, while both bullpens have pitched well lately, making this matchup profile as a relatively low-scoring affair.
SD (+101)
JR Ritchie has struggled lately, posting a 6.70 FIP and 46.2% hard-hit rate over his last 10 innings while carrying a 5.24 road FIP. Griffin Canning has been much better at Petco Park, and Atlanta's offense enters cold with just a .120 ISO over the last week.
ATH
@
SF
Tue, Jun 23 • 9:45 PM ET
CHC
@
NYM
Wed, Jun 24 • 1:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-115)
Chicago is hot at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game, and New York has statistical correction coming offensively. The Mets rank 23rd in BABIP with their .311 wOBA below their 12th-ranked .321 xwOBA to go along with a sixth-ranked hard-hit rate across the past 30 days.
CHC (-121)
The Cubs are heating up at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game. Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga has also flipped the script with just a single run allowed and opposing hitters limited to a miniscule 19.3% squared-up contact rate and 3.5% blast contact rate across 10 2/3 innings over his past two starts. The Cubbies should also have their way with struggling New York Mets righty Kodai Senga. His 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile, and he has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings, after all.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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