MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 24, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Fri, Jul 24 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Andrew Vaughn logo
Andrew Vaughn o1.5 Total Bases (+137)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. The #10 venue in baseball for boosting BABIP to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. This contest is forecasted to have the 10th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Total Bases
William Contreras logo
William Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+117)
Projection 1.97
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. The #10 venue in baseball for boosting BABIP to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to more offense.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Fri, Jul 24 • 6:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
3 LEG PARLAY
Esmerlyn Valdez profile picture
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Nico Hoerner profile picture
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Chicago Cubs logo Pittsburgh Pirates logo
o8.0
Total
Bet now
Pick made: 43 minutes ago
Robert Criscola image
Robert Criscola
Publishing Editor

Esmerlyn Valdez is the king of hard contact right now, and Matthew Boyd is in the Bottom 10th percentile in that area. The righty/lefty split just solifidies this parlay leg. Nico Hoerner has swung a hot bat since the All-Star break, hitting .407. I don't see either Boyd or Jared Jones lasting very long in this game, prolonging exposure to two bullpens ranked in the bottom half of xFIP this season. Play to +300.

Total RBIs
Michael Busch logo
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+204)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 28 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. This contest is predicted to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Michael Busch will have the handedness advantage over Jared Jones in today's matchup.. Michael Busch has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100-mph average in the past week to his seasonal EV of 92.4-mph.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Fri, Jul 24 • 6:40 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Kansas City Royals logo Detroit Tigers logo o7.5 (-107)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

This total sits at 7.5, and the bullpens create enough scoring paths. Kansas City owns a 107 wRC+ over the last week, while Detroit has shown some pop with a .185 ISO. With both relief corps carrying shaky recent xERA marks, late offense could push this matchup Over tonight.

Spread
Detroit Tigers logo DET -1.5 (-121)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Tarik Skubal enters in solid form, posting a 3.04 FIP over his last five appearances while allowing only a 17.5% hard-hit rate. Kansas City’s opener setup should expose a struggling bullpen, giving Detroit a clear path to create separation if Skubal keeps the Royals quiet early tonight at Comerica Park.

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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Fri, Jul 24 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
Cam Schlittler logo
Cam Schlittler u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-154)
Projection 6.4
Best Odds
Pick made: 55 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Cameron Schlittler encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.. Cameron Schlittler will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.
Total RBIs
Alec Bohm logo
Alec Bohm o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.52
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #8 park in the league for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences in the league — generally good for homers.. Alec Bohm will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Fri, Jul 24 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
James Wood logo
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+109)
Projection 2.05
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-best for hitting on the slate.. James Wood has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
Total Bases
Andres Chaparro logo
Andres Chaparro u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andres Chaparro's BABIP talent is projected in the 19th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. When starting against a southpaw this year, Andres Chaparro has been pinch hit for 70% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst stadium in the majors for RHB batting average.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.. Among every team today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Fri, Jul 24 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Pete Alonso logo
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 20th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 4th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors.. Pete Alonso will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday logo
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+212)
Projection 1.44
Best Odds
Pick made: 36 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes in today's matchup.. Jackson Holliday will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. With a 1.65 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Holliday has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 84th percentile.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Fri, Jul 24 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Travis Bazzana logo
Travis Bazzana o0.5 Total RBIs (+297)
Projection 0.37
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Tropicana Field grades out as the #3 park in MLB for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst among every team today.. Travis Bazzana has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 4.7% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last week's worth of games.. In the past week's worth of games, Travis Bazzana's 36.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.8%.
Total RBIs
Jonny DeLuca logo
Jonny DeLuca o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.43
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jonny DeLuca is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. Tropicana Field grades out as the #3 ballpark in the game for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball.. Jonny DeLuca will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Cantillo in today's matchup.. Jonny DeLuca will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Fri, Jul 24 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
German Marquez logo
German Marquez o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+124)
Projection 3.75
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks LoanDepot Park as the 9th-best park in the league for strikeouts.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which tends to lead to less offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 18th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. In the last 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.4% up to 21.1%.. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.3-mph over the past two weeks.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ New York Mets logo NYM Fri, Jul 24 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.25
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.. Shohei Ohtani's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 42.4% to 48.3%.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez logo
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.35
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Francisco Alvarez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Francisco Alvarez has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 16% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past week's worth of games.. In the last week's worth of games, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96-mph over the course of the season to 99.3-mph recently.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Fri, Jul 24 • 7:15 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. logo Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+525)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
Ethan Diamandas image
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has torched Fenway Park throughout his career and draws another favorable matchup against left-hander Patrick Sandoval, making him an enticing quarter-unit home run play at +500 or longer.

Total Bases
Ernie Clement logo Ernie Clement o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
Ethan Diamandas image
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst

Ernie Clement has recorded a hit in 13 of his last 17 games and matches up well against Patrick Sandoval's slider-heavy arsenal, making over 1.5 total bases an appealing play.

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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Fri, Jul 24 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez logo
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.35
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the league.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best venue in the game for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters.. HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest in the league.. This game is projected to have the 11th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Total Hits
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.77
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colson Montgomery in the 18th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.5-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.. Based on Statcast metrics, Colson Montgomery is in the 25th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .233.. As it relates to plate discipline, Colson Montgomery's skill is quite weak, posting a 3.71 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 16th percentile.. Checking in at the 22nd percentile, Colson Montgomery has posted a .224 batting average this year.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Fri, Jul 24 • 8:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Evan Carter logo
Evan Carter o1.5 Total Bases (+265)
Projection 1.31
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Globe Life Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Batting from the opposite that Bryce Miller throws from, Evan Carter will have the upper hand today.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Evan Carter will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Evan Carter's true offensive skill to be a .322, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .033 deviation between that mark and his actual .289 wOBA.
Total Bases
Jake Burger logo
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Jake Burger is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today's game.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Fri, Jul 24 • 8:10 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
3 LEG PARLAY
Byron Buxton profile picture
Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Jacob Wilson profile picture
Jacob Wilson o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Tyler Soderstrom profile picture
Tyler Soderstrom o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
Robert Criscola image
Robert Criscola
Publishing Editor

Byron Buxton returned late from the All-Star break, but picked up four hits in the recently-concluded series with the Guardians. He boasts an elite matchup rating on Batters-Box vs. Jacob Lopez, who's been throwing batting practice all year long (6.64 ERA). Lopez's opposite number is Zebby Matthews, who hasn't pitched much better. That's why I'm hitching my wagon to two of the hottest A's bats since the break; Jacob Wilson (1.097 OPS) and Tyler Soderstrom (.968 OPS). Both bullpens are in the bottom third in xFIP over the last two weeks, increasing the opportunities for all three hitters. Play to +450.

Total Bases
Byron Buxton logo
Byron Buxton o1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Projection 2.44
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Byron Buxton ranks as the 8th-best hitter in baseball.. Byron Buxton is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 81°.. Given Jacob Lopez's large platoon split, Byron Buxton will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. The Athletics outfield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.
View 11 Picks
Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Fri, Jul 24 • 8:15 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
3 LEG PARLAY
Elly De La Cruz profile picture
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Alec Burleson profile picture
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Cincinnati Reds logo St. Louis Cardinals logo
o8.5
Total
Bet now
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
Robert Criscola image
Robert Criscola
Publishing Editor

Elly De La Cruz is on a roll since the second half started (1.060 OPS), and he brings a 93rd percentile hard-hit rate into a matchup with Dustin May's eighth percentile one. Alec Burleson is batting .414 since the break, and Rhett Lowder has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball all season (5.64 xERA). Two bullpens ranked in the bottom third in xFIP over the last two weeks will only help contribute to the Over tonight. Play to +400.

Total RBIs
JJ Bleday logo
JJ Bleday o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
JJ Bleday is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. This game is projected to have the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate (76%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Because of Dustin May's large platoon split, JJ Bleday will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. JJ Bleday may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Fri, Jul 24 • 10:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell logo
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+944)
Projection 0.12
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 19.7-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.. Despite posting a .299 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jo Adell has suffered from bad luck given the .035 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.. In notching a 40.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jo Adell has performed in the 99th percentile for power.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout logo
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+217)
Projection 0.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 6th-best hitter in MLB.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.. Bats such as Mike Trout with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Webb who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Mike Trout ranks in the 88th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .358.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: one month ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

View 14 Picks
Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

View 15 Picks
Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

View 12 Picks
San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 1 Computer Pick
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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MLB Free Picks FAQs

When do we release our MLB picks?

Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.

What kinds of MLB picks do we make?

Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.