Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 18, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
PIT
@
CLE
Sat, Jul 18 • 1:10 PM ET
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Brandon Lowe's over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI at plus money stands out as one of the best values on Friday's slate. Despite entering the second half on a cold streak, Lowe owns an 81% arsenal coverage against Gavin Williams and has consistently thrived in elite rated road matchups. Across the last three seasons, he's recorded a hit in over 90% of those spots while frequently clearing this prop. Williams has also been vulnerable to left handed hitters, allowing a .314 xBA and .437 xSLG over his last 60 faced. With extra rest from the break, Lowe is primed to bounce back.
MIN
@
CHC
Sat, Jul 18 • 2:20 PM ET
u9.0 (-110)
Matthew Boyd has his flaws but he limits homers effectively and the Minnesota Twins rank 28th in OPS vs. lefties the past two months.
Taj Bradley is a high strikeout pitcher who has held opponents to a 33% hard hit rate over his last five starts. That has helped him limit the longballs, allowing just 1.16 per nine innings.
I like the Under and would play it to -120.
MIN (+125)
Matthew Boyd posted a 2.86 ERA over the past month despite a 4.82 xFIP and 5.59 xERA – strong signals his numbers could soon take a turn for the worst.
Taj Bradley owns a 2.32 ERA the past month with much better indicators to boot (2.49 xERA, 3.25 xFIP).
He should keep the Chicago Cubs in check, positioning the Minnesota Twins to pull off the upset.
Bet to +110.
NYM
@
PHI
Sat, Jul 18 • 3:05 PM ET
u8.5 (-103)
The Mets' four runs on Friday matched their total for the previous three games. New York also saw Juan Soto leave in the eighth with a sore left calf, the same problem that sent him to the IL in April. He's listed as day-to-day. Philly has scored 3.5 runs per game in the last 10, nearly a full run lower than their season average.
PHI -1.5 (+119)
The last-place Mets have a .377 winning percentage with a -1.2 run differential per game against .500+ teams. Against current playoff teams, they're .333, -1.9. The Phillies, meanwhile, are .651 against losing teams. The Phillies start Jesus Luzardo, who is fourth in MLB in strikeouts and is above the 80th percentile in every major pitching metric except walk rate (62nd) and chase rate (78th).
CHW
@
TOR
Sat, Jul 18 • 3:07 PM ET
For my same-game parlay, I'm backing over 8 total runs, the Blue Jays moneyline, and Kazuma Okamoto over 0.5 hits, with Toronto's top bat well positioned against Davis Martin's vulnerable fastball.
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
CIN
@
COL
Sat, Jul 18 • 3:10 PM ET
TEX
@
ATL
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
BAL
@
HOU
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
Trevor Rogers has been sharp lately, staying under 2.5 earned runs in five straight appearances while allowing one earned run over his last two starts. Yordan Alvarez brings total-base upside against lefties, and Gunnar Henderson is heating up against a struggling Spencer Arighetti, who owns a 9.10 monthly FIP overall.
Samuel Basallo o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+101)
Samuel Basallo mashes right-handed pitching. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in xwOBA, the 96th percentile in xSLG, and consistently makes hard contact.
That spells trouble for Spencer Arrighetti, who has allowed a .321 average, .426 ISO, and .491 wOBA when facing left-handed bats over his last five starts.
Play to -135.
SD
@
KC
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
STL
@
AZ
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
Brandon Pfaadt has been excellent lately, posting a 2.50 xERA over his last four outings while limiting walks and homers. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs since May 17 and faces a struggling Cardinals lineup. Gabriel Moreno is also hot, batting .405 over his last 10 games recently.
TB
@
BOS
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
u9.5 (-107)
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are two of the stingiest teams in the MLB, ranking fourth (3.55) and ninth (3.88) in team ERA, respectively.
Boston’s bullpen owns the third-best ERA in baseball (3.13), so this projects as another quiet game for Tampa Bay at the plate.
BOS (-116)
MIA
@
MIL
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+370)
Heriberto Hernandez enters in elite power form, posting a .571 ISO with four homers across his last nine games. His 20.4-degree launch angle and 30% barrel rate point to loud contact, while his .338 ISO against left-handers gives him a clear path to punish Shane Drohan today in this matchup.
PIT
@
CLE
Sat, Jul 18 • 7:10 PM ET
LAD
@
NYY
Sat, Jul 18 • 8:08 PM ET
o8.5 (-112)
I’m playing the Over because both starters have pitch-shape issues that can turn into home-run damage. Weathers’ fastball has been a big issue, and "he's facing the Dodgers" is simply enough analysis to tell you why that presents troubles here.
Sheehan also gives New York a path. His heater has also had some issues. It's allowed a .550 xSLG, and his 65.0% air-ball rate, which makes him vulnerable against teams that can get the ball elevated. The Yankees are inconsistent without their full lineup, but they still carry enough barrel power at Yankee Stadium to help clear nine.
LAD (-112)
I’m backing the Los Angeles Dodgers because Ryan Weathers’ biggest weakness runs directly into this lineup’s strength. I thought yesterday was the best chance for the Yankees to get a win in this series and without it, I see them at risk of being swept. Weathers, who allows a 55.6 hard hit rate that ranks the bottom 30 percentile of baseball, is a real issue against the best offense in baseball.
LA hurler Emmet Sheehan is not risk-free, but his 30% whiff rate gives them a pretty direct route against a Yankees lineup that has the third highest rate of such stats in the sport. In a game that's a near pick'em, I'd play the Dodgers down to -133.
SF
@
SEA
Sat, Jul 18 • 8:08 PM ET
Neither starting pitcher has been on their "A" game lately. Bryan Woo has a 1.31 WHIP since June 1, and Logan Webb has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts. Neither bullpen is trustworthy, either, so I'll grab the plus money Over with a deflated total given the big-name starters.
The San Francisco Giants have been the better team at the plate (112 wRC+ against RHP; Seattle 67) and in relief (3.10 SIERA; Seattle 4.60) this month, and Bryan Woo's 5.88 ERA since June 1 doesn't give much credence to his team being priced as the favorite. Logan Webb's should rely on his sinker against a Seattle Mariners lineup that struggles against the offering (-22.8 runs above average, 27th in the MLB).
WAS
@
ATH
Sat, Jul 18 • 10:05 PM ET
Luis Garcia Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-107)
Isolating starters who rank in the 45th percentile or worse in xSLG and xwOBA vs. lefties, Luis Garcia Jr. has cleared 1.5 total bases in 68.4% of his games and averaged 3.5 bases along the way.
Garcia also owns ISOs of .320 or higher against three of Ginn’s four most-used pitches.
This is a great spot to deal damage. Bet to -125.
James Wood o0.5 Total Home Runs (+243)
James Wood enters the second half in excellent power form, launching six homers over his last nine games with a .633 ISO and 59.1% hard-hit rate. JT Ginn has allowed 1.75 HR/9 recently, while the A’s bullpen owns a 2.55 HR/9 mark over two weeks at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.
DET
@
LAA
Sat, Jul 18 • 10:07 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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