MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tristan Peters in the 22nd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Tristan Peters is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.. 23% of the time that Tristan Peters has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. The league's 8th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Rogers Centre.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today.

I’m backing the Los Angeles Dodgers because Ryan Weathers’ biggest weakness runs directly into this lineup’s strength. I thought yesterday was the best chance for the Yankees to get a win in this series and without it, I see them at risk of being swept. Weathers, who allows a 55.6 hard hit rate that ranks the bottom 30 percentile of baseball, is a real issue against the best offense in baseball.

LA hurler Emmet Sheehan is not risk-free, but his 30% whiff rate gives them a pretty direct route against a Yankees lineup that has the third highest rate of such stats in the sport. In a game that's a near pick'em, I'd play the Dodgers down to -133. 

When estimating his home run ability, Jim Jarvis ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jim Jarvis is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. Extreme groundball batters like Jim Jarvis are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.. Among all the teams playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.. Compiling a lowly an 84.2-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks, Jim Jarvis has been in a slump recently.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The #6 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 84°.

Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the league for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's game.. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. In the past two weeks, Cedric Mullins's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph of late.

This year, Kyle Manzardo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 24% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest fences among all major league parks.. This matchup is projected to have the 5th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.9-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hurlers.. Kyle Manzardo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field projects as the #9 venue in baseball for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, American Family Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to higher offensive output.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 19th-best batter in baseball.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB.. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. In the past week's worth of games, Pete Alonso's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.7% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Fernando Tatis Jr. as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average ability.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 10th-best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 91°.

In MLB, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. The weather forecast expects the 4th-best pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for mound aces.. As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Josh Bell will bat from his bad side against Shota Imanaga in this game.. Out of every team today, the best infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.

Edouard Julien's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 93°.. Edouard Julien will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene today.

Andres Chaparro is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the schedule today at 98°.. Because of Jacob Lopez's large platoon split, Andres Chaparro will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

When assessing his home run ability, Jorge Soler ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Jorge Soler will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Canzone in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Dominic Canzone has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Long-balls are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in Major League Baseball.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Dominic Canzone will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Chase Field grades out as the #3 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Ivan Herrera will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eduardo Rodriguez in today's game.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.