MLB Picks

Let's call it what it is: this is a bet on Joe Ryan, one of the better starting pitchers in the American League. He's also looking to make a strong impression over the next couple of weeks, as several teams are expected to target him ahead of the trade deadline. Ryan features a four-seam fastball that he relies on heavily. While the pitch won't blow hitters away with velocity—it sits around 94 mph—it's his release point and the flat, rising trajectory that make it so difficult for batters to track and square up. This pitch profiles very well against the middle of the Rangers' lineup, particularly their right-handed bats in Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, and Jake Burger. If those hitters struggle to find success, where is the offense coming from for Texas? I make the Twins closer to a -135 favorite in this spot.

Sean Manaea has turned things around in a big way, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts, and now draws a Phillies lineup that ranks 25th in OPS against left-handed pitching over the last month. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola looks washed, posting a 5.86 ERA this season. The Mets enter with the hotter bats and could catch a break against a Phillies bullpen that was heavily taxed yesterday with the team using eight pitchers.

The Kansas City Royals are trading as a -113 favorite over the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, and I'm willing to back that number, as I make the Royals closer to a -130 favorite in this spot. Matthew Liberatore relies on locating his fastball and using effective pitch sequencing to record outs. For Bobby Witt Jr., this sets up as an excellent matchup. Against a left-handed pitcher whose slider and curveball break into his bat path, Witt Jr.'s short, compact, lightning-fast swing should play very well. Witt Jr. is an elite fastball hunter and should be able to capitalize on any mistakes Liberatore makes, especially given his below-average velocity. If Witt Jr. is getting on base and collecting extra bases, it opens the door for the rest of the Royals' offense, particularly because of the pressure he puts on both the defense and the pitcher with his speed on the basepaths.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.