MLB Picks

Melton’s profile is built to suppress the kind of loud contact New York needs to break out. His 88.7 mph average exit velocity allowed, 6.4% barrel rate, and .287 xwOBA allowed are all strong enough to keep the Yankees from breaking from this offensive slup.

Warren is the concern, but he has cut his barrel rate to 7.2% this season and faces a Detroit offense averaging only 4.19 runs per game. I make this closer to 8.4 runs.

Yes, balls fly out of Wrigley during the day, and yes, the two teams combined for 16 runs yesterday. However, they also combined for five on Monday. Walker Buehler has been in All-Star form, and the two Chicago Cubs batters who’ve faced him the most both hit below .154 with .445 OPS against him. The San Diego Padres have been under in five of the last nine with most of those cutoffs being far below 11.5 runs. The Cubs have been hitting but yesterday was their first 12+ run total in the last six games.

Zack Wheeler is one of the most reliable strikeout arms in baseball, backed by elite ratings and steady swing-and-miss production. In elite rated starts, he clears 6+ strikeouts 88.24% of the time, reaches 7+ 70.59% of the time, and gets to 8+ in 60% of those outings. He also carries a 29% strikeout rate at home this season. Tonight he faces a Pirates lineup that has been highly strikeout prone, over 30% in recent games and above 26% over the last six. With that matchup and his consistency, 8+ strikeouts at plus money is a strong look for the bet.

The Dodgers offense is red hot with elite underlying numbers and four top tier bats, and they draw a vulnerable J.T. Ginn who has struggled at home with a 4.32 xERA and 1.62 WHIP. With LA producing at a massive clip over the last week, the angle is on their team total over 4 plus runs or the cleaner first five team total over at plus money.

The Giants bring a disciplined, contact-heavy approach that limits strikeouts, with only a few bats above a 26% strikeout rate in recent plate appearances versus right-handed pitching. Several key hitters sit under 20%, with multiple below 13.3%, and Luis Arraez has not struck out in that span. On the mound, Zac Gallen has struggled significantly, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at home this season. Over his last three starts, he has been even worse with a 9.18 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, along with a low strikeout rate in recent outings. The matchup favors contact and fading Gallen.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.