Alec Burleson is one of my favorite home run plays of the day. He enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and covers 100% of Max Scherzer's pitch mix, giving him an ideal matchup. Burleson has also been locked in since the All-Star break, posting a .370 batting average, .877 OPS, 50% hard hit rate, and 13.6% barrel rate over his last 60 at bats against right handed pitching. Scherzer has struggled to keep left handed hitters in the yard, allowing plenty of hard contact and quality contact metrics. Burleson has all the tools to take advantage and go deep this afternoon.

Although Miami’s relief corps has been shaky, former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara serves as the ultimate equalizer. Alcantara consistently pitches deep into games, protecting his bullpen from heavy exposure. Getting a proven ace against an unannounced Mets starting option makes the Marlins an irresistible value play.

Junior Caminero is one of the strongest home run candidates on Sunday's slate. He has crushed left handed pitching over his last 60 at bats, posting a .320 batting average, .580 SLG, .441 wOBA, and 1.013 OPS while generating elite hard contact. He also draws an ideal matchup against Anthony Kay, who has been hammered by right handed hitters all season. Caminero owns an elite Batters-Box rating, has homered in 23% of his elite-rated matchups over the last three seasons, and matches up well with Kay's pitch mix. Everything points toward another big swing from the Rays' young slugger.

Yordan Alvarez enters with an elite Batters-Box rating, covers 100% of Kumar Rocker's pitch mix, and has homered in 43.75% of his elite-rated games at home this season. Rocker has improved recently, but he continues to struggle against left handed hitters, allowing excellent expected contact metrics while producing very few ground balls. Alvarez has also been crushing right handed pitching, generating nearly a 60% hard hit rate and an 18% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances. Everything lines up for the Astros slugger to leave the yard this afternoon.

Seth Lugo may not profile as a high strikeout pitcher, but this matchup gives him a real chance to clear 4.5 punchouts. Despite carrying one of the lower strikeout ratings on Batters-Box, Lugo has consistently reached this number in average rated matchups. The biggest reason is Colorado's lineup, which continues to swing and miss at an alarming rate against right handed pitching. Multiple Rockies hitters own strikeout rates well above league average, with Hunter Goodman leading the way. Even with this game taking place at Coors Field, I like Lugo to take advantage of the matchup and finish with at least five strikeouts.

If you're backing Jacob Misiorowski to dominate, the Brewers run line offers more value than laying a heavy price on the moneyline. Milwaukee has been one of baseball's hottest offenses over its last 21 games, posting a 113 wRC+, .334 wOBA, and .753 OPS, while the Angels have struggled with a 91 wRC+, .299 wOBA, and .664 OPS. Walbert Urena has pitched exceptionally well recently, which could limit Milwaukee's scoring, but Misiorowski should keep the Angels' offense in check. I prefer the Brewers on the run line, though I'd still consider the moneyline if you can find -130 or better.

Both bullpens have surrendered plenty of traffic over the last two weeks, shifting the edge directly to the starting rotation and offensive consistency. Detroit holds a firm advantage in contact metrics and run-creation stats, giving Tigers starter Keider Montero enough early padding to edge out the A's on the road.

Some of it is smoke and mirrors, but Michael King ranks in the 91st percentile in Pitcher Run Value and is taking on an underwhelming Giants offense. This is not a spot he should run into much trouble.

Landen Roupp is a high-end power neutralizer, allowing 0.63 HR/9 this season. His ability to keep the ball in the park limits bulk scoring and keeps the Giants in games.

Bet to -113.

Wilyer Abreu is one of my favorite player prop targets on Sunday night. He enters the matchup with a strong Batters-Box rating and 60% arsenal coverage against Emmet Sheehan. Historically, Abreu has thrived in these spots, going over this prop 57.14% of the time in road games with a strong rating. Sheehan has also struggled against left handed hitters recently, allowing a .513 xSLG and .471 xwOBA over his last 60 left handed batters faced. With Boston's offense continuing to swing the bats well, I expect Abreu to have multiple opportunities to cash this prop. Avoid laying juice on this play.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.