MLB Picks

The NRFI looks appealing in the matchup between the Blue Jays and Red Sox, as both starters have been excellent in the first inning. Boston's Payton Tolle owns a 2.00 first-inning ERA, allowing just two runs through nine starts while holding hitters to a .194 average. Toronto counters with Dylan Cease, who has posted a 3.00 first-inning ERA and allowed only five runs across 12 starts. The Blue Jays have not generated much hard contact on the road lately, while the Red Sox lineup lacks any elite-rated hitters and features plenty of strikeout and ground-ball tendencies. Even at -142, the NRFI remains playable.

Game 1 between the White Sox and Yankees has all the makings of a pitching duel, with Gerrit Cole and Davis Martin taking the mound. Chicago enters the series with momentum after consecutive series wins over the Braves and Dodgers, but this is a difficult matchup against one of baseball's top arms. Cole has been untouchable in the first inning this season, posting a 0.00 ERA with opponents hitting just .083 against him. Martin has been strong early in games as well, allowing only two first inning runs across 13 starts. With Aaron Judge absent from New York's lineup, both starters are well positioned for a scoreless opening frame.

Juan Soto is in a strong bounce back spot after going 0 for 2 with two walks last night. He draws Cincinnati right hander Brady Singer who has struggled heavily with left handed hitters, allowing a .362 average .621 slug and .442 wOBA at home this season. Singer grades as one of the weakest arms on the slate per Batters Box metrics. Soto owns elite matchup coverage at 92.2 percent and has been heating up with a .922 OPS and strong hard contact. 

This is one of my favorite YRFI spots on the board. Giants starter Adrian Houser enters the day as the worst pitcher on Batters-Box and has struggled mightily in the first inning, posting a 9.00 ERA while allowing opponents to slash .302/.409/.698 through 13 starts. Braves right-hander Grant Holmes is not in much better shape, carrying the third-worst pitcher rating and a 4.83 first-inning ERA. With seven strongly rated Braves bats, five highly rated Giants bats, and a combined nine elite-rated hitters in this matchup, there is plenty of firepower to cash a first-inning run.

One team has the flashy names and star power, while the other should be a bigger favorite than the market suggests. The St. Louis Cardinals are trading at -110, but I make them closer to -125, which is why I'm backing them in this spot. Michael King gets the start for San Diego and relies heavily on his sweeping slider. It's a tough pitch for right-handed hitters, but it becomes more vulnerable against left-handed bats because it breaks into their barrels. That's significant because the Cardinals should have five left-handed hitters in the lineup. I also like how St. Louis is constructed offensively. The Cardinals can alternate left-handed and right-handed hitters throughout the order, making it difficult for King to settle into a rhythm with his pitch locations and sequencing. That constant change in handedness should help neutralize his best pitch and gives St. Louis value at the current number.

The Texas Rangers are trading as a -130 favorite on the moneyline, and we can hit the button on that number, as I price the Rangers closer to a -150 favorite in this spot. I love the matchup for Kumar Rocker against Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis in the middle of the Twins lineup, which is really driving my projection on this game. Both hitters feature powerful, long swings, but Rocker can neutralize that by tunneling his low-and-away slider off his electric fastball to these right-handed hitters. Buxton is boom or bust—there’s a reason he has only 36 RBIs with 23 home runs on the season—and I think Rocker has the pitch sequencing and stuff to make sure Buxton doesn’t leave his mark on this game.

Ryan Feltner owns a 3.86 ERA over the past 30 days despite an alarming 4.73 xFIP and 5.03 SIERA. His numbers will head south sooner than later.

The wheels have completely fallen off for Edward Cabrera, with the veteran righty conceding at least three runs in eight of his past 10 games.

Play to -125.

Zack Gelof might not be the first name that comes up when talking about the power in the Athletics lineup, but he is slugging .600 over his last 13 games with three home runs and a 164 wRC+. He is also +517 to go deep today in arguably the best home run environment on the board. That's a big difference compared to teammates like Nick Kurtz, who is priced shorter than +200 in some spots. The launching pad that is Sutter Health Park is helping everyone these days, and the 85-degree temperatures are the hottest on the slate. Gelof is hitting 40% of his balls to center field, where the double-digit winds are providing a boost today, and more than 50% of his batted balls are getting in the air. This home run has a fair price of around +420, per the projections at Covers. From the starting pitcher to the bullpen, form, price, and hitting environment, there is a lot to like about Gelof today.

Justin Wrobleski’s .243 BABIP, 77.9% strand rate, and 6.1% HR/FB rate are all begging for regression. Both bullpens have been atrocious - L.A. has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.57) this month, while Tampa has the sixth-worst (5.63) - so I love the plus money on the Over with the wind blowing out to dead center.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.