Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on June 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
PIT
@
COL
Sun, Jun 21 • 3:10 PM ET
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total Home Runs (+255)
Brandon Lowe has already launched 18 home runs while posting an .842 OPS this season, and his underlying metrics remain strong, ranking in the 79th percentile in Barrel Rate and the 83rd percentile in expected slugging percentage. Michael Lorenzen has struggled badly in 2026, carrying a 7.13 ERA and 5.60 xERA while allowing opponents to post a .478 expected slugging percentage. His four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter all carry negative Run Values, giving a power hitter like Lowe multiple pitches he can punish.
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total Home Runs (+255)
Brandon Lowe has hit 14 of his 18 dingers vs. right-handed pitching, and Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen provides a favorable matchup at the most home run-friendly park in the majors. Lefties like Lowe are batting .403 vs. Lorenzen this season, while the 34-year-old has surrendered 1.5 HR/9.
MIN
@
AZ
Sun, Jun 21 • 3:15 PM ET
LAA
@
ATH
Sun, Jun 21 • 4:05 PM ET
BOS
@
SEA
Sun, Jun 21 • 4:10 PM ET
BAL
@
LAD
Sun, Jun 21 • 4:10 PM ET
Brandon Young’s combination of four-seam fastballs and splitters, which make up 60% of his pitches, should frustrate the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, which only pulls those pitches in the air 16.5% of the time against righties. That, combined with Emmet Sheehan's ability to keep the Baltimore Orioles in check, has me backing the Under at this inflated total.
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan has an inflated ERA (4.76), but his underlying numbers are positive. He has outstanding strikeout (26.8%) and walk (6.3%) rates, and gets batters to chase 35.4% of the time. He also has an elite slider that holds opponents to a .267 wOBA. I like the Dodgers to cover the run line at -120 or better.
NYM
@
PHI
Sun, Jun 21 • 7:20 PM ET
David Peterson has had a rough season up to this point, and he's giving up a 43% hard-hit rate. He's not having much success with his swing-and-miss stuff, and I think the Phillies' top hitters will find success. I decided to go with a H+R+RBI stack.
u8.0 (-105)
The New York Mets rank 29th in OBP and tied for 23rd in runs per game. It'll be tough sledding against Zack Wheeler.
The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled with lefties for much of the year, hitting just .223 and ranking 23rd in wOBA.
The Mets also have a very rested bullpen behind David Peterson so they’ll be well-equipped to put out fires as they arise.
Play to -115.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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