MLB Picks

Isolating opponents who sit Top-20 in ISO and hard hit rate against right-handed pitching, Nolan McLean has posted a 5.30 ERA and allowed 1.45 HR/9.

Nick Lodolo’s outputs are even more alarming. He is sporting a 5.91 ERA and giving up 2.11 HR/9 at home this season.

Expect plenty of offense in this one and bet the Over to -125.

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the second-best home run park on the board today, per Ballpark Pal. The Phillies have a home run edge against Sandy Alcantara, who owns the 18th-worst HR/9 rate among MLB starters over the last 30 days and doesn't generate many ground balls, with a 36.3% rate. Philadelphia should get plenty of balls in the air, and somehow Alec Bohm is still paying a silly +940 to keep raking. Bohm has been cruising at home in June with a 1.046 OPS. He has three home runs over his last 45 plate appearances and went deep again last night. Those previous home run prices were all shorter than +700. Where else are you going to find a cleanup hitter at this number? Bohm also owns the second-best slugging percentage on the team over the last two weeks. He's seen Alcantara 32 times in his career and has hit .344 with an .851 OPS in that respectable sample. I have this fair price closer to +650.

This is one of my favorite YRFI spots on the board. Giants starter Adrian Houser enters the day as the worst pitcher on Batters-Box and has struggled mightily in the first inning, posting a 9.00 ERA while allowing opponents to slash .302/.409/.698 through 13 starts. Braves right-hander Grant Holmes is not in much better shape, carrying the third-worst pitcher rating and a 4.83 first-inning ERA. With seven strongly rated Braves bats, five highly rated Giants bats, and a combined nine elite-rated hitters in this matchup, there is plenty of firepower to cash a first-inning run.

The pitching matchup of Ohtani against Shane McClanahan looks appealing for the Under, but both are struggling. Ohtani allowed a season-high four runs in just over six innings last time out, and McClanahan has lost his last two starts, giving up eight runs in nine innings. An easier Over with positive odds is worth a flier.

Wilyer Abreu is in a strong matchup spot against Max Scherzer, with an opportunity to take advantage of some clear weaknesses in the veteran right-hander’s profile. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Abreu is hitting .310 with a .921 OPS, .621 slugging, a 45.8% hard-hit rate, and a 16.7% barrel rate. He also profiles well against Scherzer’s declining pitch mix, covering nearly 60% of his arsenal, with all offerings grading below league average per FanGraphs. Scherzer has also allowed elevated contact outcomes to left-handed hitters, including a 75% elevation rate and a .544 xSLG. At near even money, the price feels misaligned with the matchup.

Anthony Kay’s 8.74 expected ERA is concerning, especially paired with a .438 xwOBA allowed and a 58%+ hard-hit rate. Regression is coming, and few teams are better equipped to take advantage of it. In addition, it's not idea tha a 15% walk rate puts free runners in front of a New York Yankees lineup that I think has found its footing again. Carlos Rodon counters with a 75th-percentile strikeout rate and 81st-percentile xERA against a White Sox lineup that strikes out heavily. Play to +100.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.