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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+150 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.66 |
-170 
|
u8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +130
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Nathaniel Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.71 |
+140 
|
o7.5 -128
|
+1.5 -159 
|
|
4.82 |
-155
|
u8.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +145
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+148)
o0.5+148
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.75 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.19 |
+125
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -135
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
o0.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
+105
|
o8.5 -102
|
+1.5 -198
|
|
4.74 |
-118
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Hao-Yu Lee o0.5 Total RBIs (+237)
o0.5+237
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+165
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.81 |
-184
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +126
|
Athletics
- are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 9-0 in Martinezs last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.74 |
-210
|
o8.5 +100
|
-1.5 -125
|
|
4.13 |
+180
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+163)
o1.5+163
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-135
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.56 |
+120
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 home games.
- Pirates are 9-0 in Jones' last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-190
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
4.32 |
+170
|
u8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -104
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+158
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.48 |
+123
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.38 |
-138
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+120
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.74 |
-140
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +155
|
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
-105
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.02 |
-108
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +150
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Texas
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 home starts.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+242
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+121
|
o8.0 -165
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.79 |
-140
|
u9.0 -114
|
-1.5 +152
|
Kansas City
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 overall.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-101)
o1.5+105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.26 |
-165
|
o10.0 -186
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
5.55 |
+145
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -105
|
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rockies last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-135
|
o7.0 -200
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.13 |
+120
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Mariners last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Kirbys last 6 starts on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts overall.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
+115
|
o8.0 -162
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.20 |
-125
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Marlins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0-2 in Kellys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+199
CHW
@
CLE
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
David Fry u1.5 Total Bases (-275)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Fry in the 12th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. David Fry is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.. The league's 4th-tallest fences can be found at Progressive Field.. David Fry's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.8-mph EV last year has dropped off to 85.7-mph.. David Fry's launch angle this season (18.6°) is considerably lower than his 23.1° figure last season.
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When starting against a left-handed starter this year, Randal Grichuk has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 67% of the time.. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Randal Grichuk in today's matchup.. Randal Grichuk has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 11.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 14 days.. Randal Grichuk has been lucky this year, notching a .371 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .045 difference.
SF
@
STL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:15 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Nolan Gorman o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+140)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 90°.. Batting from the opposite that Anthony Molina throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.
Strikeouts Thrown
Matthew Liberatore o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+126)
Projection 5.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the San Francisco Giants with a 27.6% underlying K%.. Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Matthew Liberatore will hold that advantage today.. Matthew Liberatore's slider usage has spiked by 5.9% from last year to this one (21.1% to 27%) .
NYY
@
MIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Josh Bell u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #5 venue in the game for suppressing home runs to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The 10th-deepest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Target Field.. In the majors, the 5th-highest fences are at Target Field.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.7-mph in this contest, the best of the day for pitchers.
Total Bases
Austin Wells u1.5 Total Bases (-280)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Wells's BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Wells is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game.. This year, Austin Wells has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 23% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-worst stadium in MLB for left-handed home runs.. The 10th-deepest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Target Field.
DET
@
TOR
Wed, Sep 16 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. George Springer is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. George Springer hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. George Springer will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Spencer Torkelson has averaged 30.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 89th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. When it comes to power, Spencer Torkelson finds himself in the 75th percentile, having averaged 24.7 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.
ATH
@
TB
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Nick Madrigal u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Nick Madrigal is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 2.16
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Shea Langeliers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Shea Langeliers's launch angle this season (19.4°) is quite a bit better than his 16.3° mark last season.. In notching a .348 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Shea Langeliers grades out in the 82nd percentile for offensive skills.
LAD
@
CIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Enrique Hernandez u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Enrique Hernandez in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Enrique Hernandez is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Enrique Hernandez today.. Enrique Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 18.9% to 4.5%.
Total Bases
Miguel Rojas u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Miguel Rojas ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Miguel Rojas is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Miguel Rojas today.. Miguel Rojas's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.1-mph figure last year has dropped off to 87.6-mph.
MIL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 18th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
Total Bases
Jake Bauers u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Jake Bauers has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 11% of the time.. In Major League Baseball, the 6th-highest fence height (on average) are at PNC Park.. PNC Park has the 7th-largest outfield among all major league stadiums — generally bad for home runs.. Jake Bauers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.. There has been a significant decline in Jake Bauers's launch angle from last season's 16.6° to 12° this year.
PHI
@
WAS
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dylan Crews is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Nationals Park has the 9th-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Dylan Crews will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Compared to last season, Dylan Crews has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.1% to 19.3% this season.
Total RBIs
J.T. Realmuto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Nationals Park has the 9th-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Cade Cavalli will have the handedness advantage against J.T. Realmuto in today's game.. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team today.
BAL
@
NYM
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. In the last two weeks, Pete Alonso's 57.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.5%.. Pete Alonso has posted a .381 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage today.. Francisco Lindor has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 95.9-mph over the last 7 days.
ATL
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 45%, give me the Atlanta Braves to defeat the Chicago Cubs, as I think they should be trading closer to 49% in this matchup. JR Ritchie is on the mound for the Braves, but I don't expect him to go deep into the game. Fortunately, Atlanta has the relievers necessary to piece together a strong pitching performance against the left-handed bats in the Cubs' lineup. Left-handed reliever Dylan Lee hasn't pitched yet in this series, Raisel Iglesias has always been tough on left-handed hitters because of his changeup, and the Braves have multiple other lefties in the bullpen in Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd. This breakdown is about neutralizing the power of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, if that wasn't obvious already. The Cubs' bullpen, on the other hand, ranks last in fWAR over the last 30 days.
Total Bases
Austin Riley u1.5 Total Bases (-245)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Riley is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The league's 7th-highest fences can be found at Wrigley Field.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Typically, bats like Austin Riley who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shota Imanaga.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
BOS
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Ezequiel Duran u0.5 Total Hits (+161)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ezequiel Duran has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.. The #1 venue in baseball for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 5th-best among every team playing today.
Total Hits
Adley Rutschman u0.5 Total Hits (+150)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 99% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. The #1 venue in baseball for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers.
KC
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Jose Altuve u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 stadium in the league for suppressing batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to less offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.. Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 92.1-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 88.6-mph over the last 14 days.
Total RBIs
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average skill.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Bobby Witt Jr. has hit one of the hardest balls in the majors over the past 14 days — 112.5-mph — which is a favorable indicator of recent form and raw power.. Bobby Witt Jr. has been unlucky this year, posting a .345 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .381 — a .036 difference.
SD
@
COL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Adael Amador u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adael Amador in the 7th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Adael Amador is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. Adael Amador has been cold recently, posting a 84.1-mph average exit velocity in the last two weeks.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.229) suggests that Adael Amador has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .298 actual wOBA.. Adael Amador ranks in the 17th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (37.5% rate since the start of last season).
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (-136)
Projection 2.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jackson Merrill's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Jackson Merrill will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mason Adams in today's matchup.
SEA
@
LAA
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+118)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Yusei Kikuchi’s season numbers aren’t pretty, but his recent form tells a different story, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17 innings. Neither offense inspires much confidence, so I’m happy to take the plus money with the hotter starter. Kikuchi also owns a 1.32 ERA across six career starts against Seattle.
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 13th-best hitter in the league as it relates to his batting average skill.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Julio Rodriguez will have an advantage today.. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
MIA
@
AZ
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1050)
Projection 0.1
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Over the last week, Otto Lopez's 17.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14%.
Strikeouts Thrown
Ryan Gusto u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120)
Projection 3.22
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ryan Gusto is projected to throw 81 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least on the slate.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-worst stadium in the league for strikeouts.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto today.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has become somewhat of an ageless wonder for the Red Sox, and the veteran right-hander has limited Texas hitters to a lifetime .505 OPS. With Gray on the hill, Boston is playable to -135.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
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Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
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