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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 10, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.90 |
-146 
|
o8.0 -125 
|
-1.5 +115 
|
|
4.47 |
+153 
|
u8.5 -116 
|
+1.5 -121
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Red Sox are 9-0 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 home games.
- Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+229)
o0.5 +229
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.41 |
+130
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -161
|
|
5.27 |
-138
|
u8.5 -112
|
-1.5 +147
|
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 road games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Mets last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 games as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Braves are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Elders last 6 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a favorite.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Jorge Polanco o0.5 Total RBIs (+285)
o0.5 +285
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.11 |
-111
|
o8.5 +101
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
4.63 |
+105
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -164
|
Baltimore
- Orioles are 9-0 in Rogers' last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 5-0 in Rogers' last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Orioles are 5-0 in Rogers' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 5-0 in Rogers' last 5 road starts.
Minnesota
- Under is 9-1 in Twins last 10 home games.
- Under is 8-1 in Twins last 9 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 9-1 in Twins last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
Top Projection
Tyler O'Neill o0.5 Total RBIs (+178)
o0.5 +178
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.43 |
-102
|
o8.5 -126
|
-1.5 +151
|
|
4.74 |
+106
|
u9.0 -110
|
+1.5 -160
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 on grass.
St. Louis
- Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Cardinals last 11 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+162)
o0.5 +162
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.39 |
-112
|
o8.0 -110 
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
4.15 |
+104
|
u8.5 -122
|
+1.5 -161
|
Texas
- Over is 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Gores last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Gores last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Gores last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0-1 in Detmers' last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-0 in Detmers' last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5 +200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
-108
|
o7.0 -120
|
-1.5 +154
|
|
4.31 |
+101
|
u7.5 -122
|
+1.5 -175
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 7-0 in Hendersons last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Padres are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Padres last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+199)
o0.5 +199
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.47 |
-146
|
o10.0 -107
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
5.46 |
+140
|
u10.5 -121
|
+1.5 -112
|
Tampa Bay
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 vs. American League West.
Athletics
- Under is 5-0 in last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Tyler Soderstrom o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
o0.5 +155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
+175
|
o8.5 -112
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
5.36 |
-180
|
u8.5 +101
|
-1.5 +114
|
Colorado
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 overall.
Arizona
- Under is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Sorokas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Jordan Beck o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+171)
o1.5 +171
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.36 |
-148
|
o8.0 -125
|
-1.5 +110
|
|
3.94 |
+134
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -126
|
Houston
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a road favorite.
San Francisco
- Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-1 in Giants last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Jose Altuve o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5 +210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.33 |
+265
|
o7.5 +105
|
+2.0 -111
|
|
5.06 |
-293
|
u7.5 -116
|
-2.0 -117
|
Kansas City
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5 +255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.06 |
-103
|
-- |
-- |
|
3.58 |
-112
|
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Over is 5-0 in Skenes' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Pirates last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Pirates last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Miami
- Under is 10-1 in Marlins last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
+124
|
-- |
-- |
|
4.63 |
-148
|
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Under is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 overall.
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 home games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.70 |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
|
3.95 |
+129
|
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Under is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 games as a road favorite.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+129
|
-- |
-- |
|
5.31 |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Under is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 5-0 in Woos last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Weathers' last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.78 |
-103
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.18 |
-116
|
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Red Sox are 9-0 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.30 |
+105
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.07 |
-142
|
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 road games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Mets last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 games as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Braves are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.72 |
+101
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.08 |
-121
|
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Orioles are 5-0 in Youngs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as a road favorite.
Minnesota
- Under is 7-0-1 in Twins last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Twins are 7-0 in Obers last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Twins are 6-0 in Obers last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Obers last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+109
|
-- |
-- |
|
4.69 |
-126
|
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Under is 6-0 in Reds last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Reds last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Reds last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in Burkes last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-2 in White Sox last 5 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.12 |
-161
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.41 |
+134
|
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a road favorite.
St. Louis
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pallantes last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pallantes last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Cardinals are 8-1 in Pallantes last 9 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Pallantes last 7 home starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.24 |
-168
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.19 |
+134
|
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Angels last 9 games as an underdog.
- Under is 7-1 in Angels last 8 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 vs. American League West.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.76 |
-131
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.14 |
+109
|
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
- Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. National League West.
San Diego
- Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Padres are 5-0 in Buehlers last 5 starts on grass.
- Padres are 5-0 in Buehlers last 5 starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.63 |
+146
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.65 |
-200
|
-- |
-- |
Colorado
- Rockies are 7-0 in Suganos last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 7-1 in Suganos last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. National League West.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.37 |
-168
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.32 |
+140
|
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 vs. American League West.
- Under is 8-0 in Martinezs last 8 starts on grass.
Athletics
- Under is 5-1 in last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.24 |
-168
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.73 |
+140
|
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Browns last 4 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a road favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.22 |
+238
|
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.69 |
-279
|
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Wachas last 4 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
BOS
@
TOR
Mon, Aug 10 • 7:07 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Sonny Gray u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-166)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Sonny Gray finds himself in another favorable spot against a Toronto Blue Jays offense that has been among the most underwhelming in baseball. Over their last 21 games, Toronto owns a 79 wRC+, .282 wOBA, .106 ISO and just a 4% barrel rate. The Blue Jays also have zero hitters carrying an elite or strong rating on Batters-Box, while Gray owns the second-highest pitcher rating. His historical trends are also encouraging, staying under this prop 63.64% of the time in 22 strong ratings. The price is steep, but Gray remains playable at -170 or better.
Earned Runs Allowed
Jameson Taillon o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-113)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Boston Red Sox continue to be one of the hottest offenses in baseball, and today's matchup gives them another opportunity to keep rolling. Toronto right hander Jameson Taillon has struggled over his last five starts, posting a 7.78 ERA, 6.65 xERA and 1.73 WHIP while allowing significant hard contact. His Batters-Box profile also presents a poor matchup against Boston, with four elite-rated bats and another carrying a strong rating. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have posted a 120 wRC+, .348 wOBA and .790 OPS over their last 21 games. At -120 or better, Boston is worth backing.
NYM
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 10 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Carson Benge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+584)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Carson Benge brings real home run appeal at plus money, batting .409 over his last five games with two homers, a .364 ISO, and an 11.1% barrel rate. Elder has allowed 1.50 HR/9 lately, while Atlanta’s bullpen is giving up fly balls and home runs quite frequently lately.
Total
u8.5 (-112)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Under 8.5 fits because Scott can limit Atlanta, and Elder has not fully unraveled despite recent hard contact. New York’s bullpen owns a 3.90 xERA over the last week with minimal homer damage, while Atlanta’s relief corps is vulnerable but not in complete collapse, creating a lower-scoring path tonight.
BAL
@
MIN
Mon, Aug 10 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
BAL (-112)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Baltimore Orioles are taking on Dean Kremer in a revenge spot after trading him to the Minnesota Twins on July 31, but let's be honest—the revenge angle doesn't scare me. If anything, Orioles hitters should have an extensive scouting report on Kremer and know his arsenal well. That arsenal includes heavy reliance on his four-seam fastball, a pitch carrying a -2 run value this season. Leaning on a mediocre fastball is a problem against this Orioles lineup, especially with Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso, two of the biggest bats at the top of the order, both excellent fastball hitters. The Orioles are trading as a 53-cent favorite on Polymarket, and I price them closer to 55 cents. It's not a massive edge, but an edge is an edge, and that's all we need.
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 19th-best hitter in MLB.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. This game is expected to have the 8th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 13th-worst among all the teams on the slate today.. Pete Alonso has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12.9% seasonal rate to 19.2% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
PHI
@
STL
Mon, Aug 10 • 7:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+521)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Burleson has hit 16 of his 19 homers against right-handed pitchers while sporting a monster .240 ISO and .414 wOBA. This is also a favorable pitching matchup. Phillies righty Andrew Painter sports a 5.13 xERA and his 1.8 HR/9 is the 13th-highest mark among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched. Excellent hitting conditions are in the forecast tonight at Busch Stadium, too.
Total
o8.5 (-126)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over is my favorite bet for this game because Cardinals righty Hunter Dobbins has only made five starts this season, and the Phillies are third in xwOBA with an average of 4.72 runs per game since the All-Star Break. St. Louis is also set for statistical correction at the dish. Despite ranking seventh in hard-hit percentage and third in both squared-up contact and blast-contact rates across the past 30 days, the Cards sit 23rd in BABIP, and they have a soft pitching matchup with Phillies righty Andrew Painter sporting a 5.13 xERA. Favorable hitting conditions are forecast at Busch Stadium tonight, too.
TEX
@
LAA
Mon, Aug 10 • 9:38 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+109)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Total Bases
Jake Burger u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #1 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 7th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jake Burger in today's game.. In the past 14 days, Jake Burger's 26.1% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39.4%.
MIL
@
SD
Mon, Aug 10 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jackson Chourio o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jackson Chourio's batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (49.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. Jackson Chourio has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 13.4% seasonal rate to 30.8% in the past week's worth of games.
Total Bases
Xander Bogaerts o1.5 Total Bases (+231)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Petco Park has the shallowest CF dimensions among all stadiums.. Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Extreme groundball batters like Xander Bogaerts tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Henderson.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
TB
@
ATH
Mon, Aug 10 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+200)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Junior Caminero leads the Rays in average fly ball distance by nearly 40 feet over the last 15 games while also pacing the group in barrel rate at 13.6%.
Jacob Lopez has conceded 1.86 homers per nine innings to righties, a full home run more than he allows to lefties. Favorable hitting conditions won't help.
I'd bet Caminero to leave the yard down to +186.
Total
u10.0 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Tampa Bay Rays own a .135 ISO against lefties the past month while ranking 22nd in hard hit rate and 27th in fly ball rate.
The Athletics have labored since Langeliers went down, ranking 29th in OBP and 25th in ISO.
Betting an Under in this park is a scary proposition, but I make this total 9.6 runs and would bet it to -116.
COL
@
AZ
Mon, Aug 10 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar u1.5 Total Bases (-170)
Projection 0.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all parks, Chase Field's centerfield fences are the 3rd-deepest.. Chase Field has the 10th-highest fences among all major league stadiums.. The weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Lars Nootbaar has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 8.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.. Lars Nootbaar's launch angle this season (6.1°) is significantly worse than his 15.9° mark last year.
Total Hits
TJ Rumfield u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects T.J. Rumfield in the 17th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Among all parks, Chase Field's centerfield fences are the 3rd-deepest.. The weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for T.J. Rumfield in today's matchup.
HOU
@
SF
Mon, Aug 10 • 9:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Projection 2.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the game.. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Blade Tidwell throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an edge in today's game.
Total RBIs
Jose Altuve o0.5 Total RBIs (+203)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jose Altuve is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.4-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Among all the teams today, the 11th-weakest infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Jose Altuve has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 92.6-mph.
KC
@
LAD
Mon, Aug 10 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total Home Runs (+216)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Shohei Ohtani's is even better at home (168 wRC+ and .297 ISO) and carries his power regardless of platoon split (11 home runs against left-handed pitchers). The wind will be blowing out to center field, and either Noah Cameron (contact-prone, lack of groundballs) or the bullpen (71 HRs allowed, third most) can be had for a dinger.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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