Mets vs Mariners Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's MLB Game
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Chase Burns has been dominant this season, posting a sub-2.00 ERA while clearing this strikeout number in three straight starts. He now faces a Royals team riding a six-game losing streak that struck out 12 times in its last game.
Spencer Steer also finds himself in a favorable matchup against Luinder Avila. Steer has at least one hit in four straight games, including a three-base effort last time out, and looks well-positioned to cash his two total bases prop.
While the Giants scored 19 runs on Sunday, that outburst heavily inflates their recent offensive numbers. Milwaukee's pitching situation remains strong behind Shane Drohan and an elite bullpen, while Landen Roupp has posted a 2.71 FIP across his last two starts. This pitching matchup could keep scoring limited.
Milwaukee's bullpen advantage is difficult to ignore in this matchup. The Brewers' relievers have allowed just a 6% barrel rate this season and enter rested after only two bullpen arms were used on Sunday. Meanwhile, San Francisco's bullpen owns a 4.88 xERA and 5.40 xFIP over the last week.
Jordan Walker is having a breakout campaign with 15 home runs, and he comes up against Jacob deGrom tonight. While the veteran's 3.77 ERA is respectable, the underlying numbers are more concerning. He's allowing a 46.2% hard-hit rate this season, and that number jumped to 51.2% in May, when he also posted a 5.62 FIP. Walker owns a 21.2% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitching this season and has produced a 57.9% hard-hit rate over the last week.
Mike Trout continues to produce elite power metrics, carrying a 48.6% hard-hit rate and a 21% barrel rate that ranks in the 98th percentile. He'll face Kyle Freeland on Monday, and the Rockies left-hander owned a 9.41 xERA in May while allowing opponents to post a 44.6% hard-hit rate.
The Mariners have been effective against lefties this year, with 20% of all balls they’ve hit off of southpaws being pulled in the air. They should find success against Manaea, who has an average fastball velocity of just over 90 MPH, which will let those Seattle bats get around on him. Even if the Mets can't generate more than a couple of runs, the Mariners might get us to the Over by themselves tonight.
The New York Mets are giving Austin Warren his first start tonight, with Sean Manaea likely picking up the bulk of the innings. With Emerson Hancock throwing one of the most effective fastballs in the majors right now, this is a mismatch on the mound, and I like the Mariners to win at anything better than -150.
Both bullpens are in fine form, ranking one (Arizona with 18) and two (LA with 24) in earned runs allowed last month. LA has hit the Over just once in Sheehan’s last four starts, while Arizona has done so once in Rodriguez’s last six.
Emmet Sheehan dazzles with his slider, generating a .190 xBA and a 41.3% whiff rate. He should find success against the Diamondbacks, who rank 25th in runs above average (-11.8) against sliders. Eduardo Rogriguez is overvalued: his 2.31 ERA is unsupported by his 4.44 xERA or 89 Stuff+.
Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.
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