I’m playing the Over because both sides have a scoring path tied to the starters. New York’s case is obvious.

The Chicago Cubs can contribute against Will Warren, too. He owns a 4.59 xERA with a 41.0% hard-hit rate. The Cubs aren't a crazy explosive group, but a .340 OBP along with a solid walk rate can create the traffic Warren has struggled to navigate. I'd play this to -105.

Nathan Eovaldi is an excellent strikeout artist but ranks in the 34th percentile in barrel rate. That could get him into trouble against the Houston Astros, who sit fourth in ISO vs. right-handed pitching in July.

Texas holds down the seventh slot in ISO against righties this month while also cracking the Top-10 in hard hit rate and fly ball percentage.

Bet the Over to -125.

The Brewers are set up nicely to bounce back after Wednesday’s blowout loss. They've been strong in games after a loss this season and own an MLB-best 11-4 record following a day off. They'll face Angels youngster Ryan Johnson, who owns an ugly 7.34 ERA and has been smacked around in multiple starts. With Milwaukee ranking second in OPS over the past week and Los Angeles sitting 27th in OPS in July, Shane Drohan is well-positioned to lead the Brewers to a comfortable win.

The Tigers are 2-11 O/U in their last 13 games in which Casey Mize takes the hill. Their offense ranks bottom five in wOBA (.277) and wRC+ (74) against lefties in July. The Athletics have cashed the Under in five conseucitve home games and this looks like another inflated total at Sutter Health Park.

Rafael Devers tops Batters-Box's ratings today, marking his 260th elite rated matchup over the last three seasons. He has homered in 22.39% of his previous 259 elite rated games, and tonight's matchup is another favorable one. Germán Márquez has been crushed by left handed hitters all season, allowing a ton of contact, plenty of elevation, and elite expected numbers. While Devers' pitch coverage is lowered by a limited sample against Márquez's knuckle curve, he grades out extremely well against the rest of his arsenal. Combined with Devers' recent form, this sets up as an outstanding opportunity for a long ball.

Ranger Suárez will make his second start since returning from a groin injury. In his first outing on July 26 against the Blue Jays, he threw just four scoreless innings on 64 pitches while striking out six, suggesting the Red Sox are still easing him back. Against the Dodgers' patient lineup, this could be another short outing, exposing Boston's middle relievers. The matchup is also dangerous for Suárez, whose heavy sinker lives at the bottom of the zone and relies on weak ground balls. The Dodgers match up well against that profile, with right-handed hitters like Mookie Betts and Andy Pages owning swing paths built to attack low pitches. Polymarket has Los Angeles at a 54-cent favorite, but I make them closer to 58 cents, so I'm hitting the button.

Randy Arozarena is in a premium matchup against Zebby Matthews, who has struggled throughout the season and has been especially vulnerable away from home. Matthews has also been hit hard by right handed batters recently, allowing plenty of quality contact and power. Arozarena enters this matchup swinging a scorching hot bat against right handed pitching, backed by elite hard hit and barrel rates over his recent sample. Batters-Box also grades him with an elite matchup rating, while also having incredible arsenal coverage against Matthews' offerings. Everything lines up for Arozarena to continue his hot streak in a favorable home matchup.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.