MLB Picks

Braxton Fulford's batting average talent is projected to be in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Braxton Fulford is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.. Among every team on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.. This season, there has been a decline in Braxton Fulford's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.08 ft/sec last year to 27.97 ft/sec currently.. Since the start of last season, Braxton Fulford's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 15th percentile at 88.1 mph.

This is a massive number with the Angels sending their best pitcher to the mound. THE BAT is projecting a fair price of -167, making this Under one of the best +EV sides or totals on the board this morning. My favorite angle on this Under — and why I have zero interest in the Orioles while also liking the Angels moneyline and Baltimore team total Under 4.5 — is the travel spot. The Orioles are wrapping up a West Coast trip that included stops in Seattle and Los Angeles. Following today's matinee, Baltimore heads home for the first time in nine days, meaning this club has been on the road for nine straight days without a break. If there is a spot on the schedule to mail one in, this is it. This series hasn't seen both teams score two runs in the same game yet, and Baltimore is 2-6 O/U on this road trip. They'll also be rolling out an afternoon lineup in a getaway-day situation.

The Detroit Tigers rank eighth in ISO and first in flyball rate against lefties in June so they’re well equipped to put Ryan Weathers’ homerun struggles to the test.

Tarik Skubal hasn't been perfect. He ranks in the 32nd percentile in hard hit rate and has allowed multiple runs in four straight starts.

Play the Over to -130.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Spencer Horwitz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. PNC Park projects as the #4 ballpark in baseball for left-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Given Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Spencer Horwitz will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his batting average talent.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams today.

I don't think I can leave Brandon Marsh off the card today after he helped spark the ninth-inning comeback last night with a homer off Washington closer Brad Lord. He has gone deep in each game of this series and might have an even better chance to leave the yard tonight despite being priced only slightly shorter than yesterday. Miles Mikolas gets the ball today, and he owns the worst HR/FB rate in baseball while also carrying the 10th-worst Blast Contact percentage allowed. His HR/9 at home sits at a hefty 2.5, and Washington has been protecting him lately by using an opener ahead of him. Not today. As a traditional starter this season, Mikolas has posted an 8.80 ERA with an .861 OPS allowed. After last night's wild game, it wouldn't be surprising to see both teams leave the yard multiple times again.

Kazuma Okamoto profiles well against Mike Burrows, who’s a contact pitcher that gets barreled up at 9.1% rate and ranks in the 54th percentile in hard-hit rate. The Jays slugger barrels the ball better than any other Blue Jays and makes hard contact with a .300 average and a 56.8% hard-hit rate against Burrows’ top pitches. 

 

Brice Turang is in a strong spot tonight against Rhett Lowder in a favorable park setting. Lowder has struggled with left-handed hitters, allowing elevated contact quality at home and over his recent sample, including high hard hit and barrel rates alongside damaging expected metrics. The profile suggests consistent loft and extra base damage potential in this split. Turang, meanwhile, grades out as an elite matchup in Batters-Box data with strong coverage against Lowder’s pitch mix and improved underlying indicators in recent form. The combination of matchup weaknesses and Turang’s profile makes the over on his bases prop an appealing angle.

Ketel Marte is the first bet I locked in for today’s Diamondbacks matchup with Cardinals left hander Matthew Liberatore.

Marte has been seeing the ball well against southpaws over his last 60 plate appearances, posting a .680 SLG, 1.047 OPS, 65% hard hit and 13% barrel rate.

He also holds a 70% arsenal coverage edge versus Liberatore, whose pitch mix grades 85% below league average.

Liberatore has struggled with right handed hitters, allowing a 49% hard hit rate, 18.6% barrel rate and 62.8% elevation over last 60 batters faced.

The San Diego Padres own a league-worst .285 on base percentage against left-handed pitching. 

Martin Perez has conceded two runs or fewer in 11 of 14 starts and this is a great spot for him to do so again.

While the Atlanta Braves possess a lot of power vs. lefties, they sit 19th in OBP.

Play to -120.

Nick Kurtz draws a strong matchup against Tyler Mahle and enters in peak form. Kurtz carries elite Batters-Box ratings with full arsenal coverage in this spot and has historically cleared this prop at a near 71% rate in similar road profiles, including a 25% home run clip. Mahle relies heavily on his fastball and has struggled with hard contact, particularly against left-handed hitters who have produced elevated launch rates and a .505 expected slugging over his recent sample. Kurtz’s current form is strong, posting elite contact metrics and impact production over his last stretch versus right-handed pitching. 

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.