MLB Picks

Nick Lodolo is a perfect dinger target today. He's allowed six homers across 16+ innings since returning from the IL as he adjusts to a new curveball grip because of a recurring blister issue. His 3.31 HR/9 in August is the fifth-worst mark among starters for the month, and his 8.29 xERA might be a sign that he hasn't simply been unlucky of late. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the best right-handed hitter in this San Diego lineup and gets the advantage of a great HR park with temperatures reaching 91 degrees today. The Padres outfielder has a .961 OPS against lefties, while his .588 slugging percentage against them ranks among the Top 10 marks in baseball this year. I'll play this to 27% tonight and think the Padres can stack some runs in a great setting against a pitcher struggling to find his game after the blister issue.

The #5 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis's true offensive ability to be a .305, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .052 gap between that figure and his actual .253 wOBA.

When Williams misses his spots, he gets hit hard, as evidenced by his astronomical 47.6% hard-hit rate this season. He's coughed up six homers across his last four starts, and Okamoto is in a prime spot to capitalize on a mistake tonight. The rookie has hit 20 of his 28 bombs against righties, and has already logged one against Williams this year. Let's ride this play with confidence at this price.

Sean Manaea has struggled over his last few starts, but his recent road outings have been worse. Over his last three starts, the Mets left-hander owns a 7.00 ERA and 6.27 xERA while allowing nearly 50% hard-hit and nearly 21% barrel rates.

The Rays enter Tuesday with three elite-rated hitters on Batters-Box in Ryan Vilade, Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz. All three have generated plenty of hard contact and barreled balls recently and against left-handed pitching this season.

If you can find Tampa Bay at 1.5 runs or its F5 team total at 1.5, take it. The number matters more than the price.

The Braves have a great home run matchup against Jake Irvin, who is struggling with his command after a six-walk outing. He did manage to keep the ball in the park in that game, but it was his first homerless outing in five straight starts. Michael Harris is a hot bat, owning the No. 4 slugging percentage in baseball over the last two weeks. He also has plenty of familiarity with Irvin, having faced him 24 times while hitting nearly .300. He's the Braves' hottest hitter, and his price is on the good side of 25%, where I don't like to go above. Half of Harris' hits have gone for extra bases dating back to August 23, and 90-degree temperatures with winds blowing out to his pull side only improve the matchup.

Roman Anthony has been crushing the baseball since returning from injury, with four of his last eight batted balls leaving the bat at over 101 mph. The Boston Red Sox slugger draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo, who has struggled on the road against left-handed hitters. Woo is allowing a 46% hard-hit rate and a 66.4% elevation rate in that split, while hitters have posted nearly a 70% hard-hit rate, a 13.6% barrel rate and a 72.7% elevation rate over his last 30 batters faced. With Anthony covering nearly 90% of Woo’s pitch mix, tonight sets up well.

Chourio is heating up at the dish with three homers during his active five-game hitting streak, and he sports a rock-solid .198 ISO against lefties. This should also prove to be a favorable matchup with Chicago southpaw Matthew Boyd allowing 14 of his 15 long flies to right-handed hitters alongside a .196 ISO.

Munetaka Murakami enters tonight’s matchup against Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco amid a cold streak, but the matchup remains too good to ignore. Murakami owns an elite Batters-Box rating, covering nearly 90% of Blanco’s arsenal, and has recorded at least one hit in 66% of his 62 elite ratings this season. Blanco has also struggled against left-handed hitters at home, who are batting .306 with a .611 slugging percentage and .434 wOBA. With lefties also posting a 52.3% fly-ball rate and 2.57 HR/9 against Blanco this season, Murakami is worth backing at -156 to record a hit.

During the last 30 days, Bradish owns a ghastly 7.70 xERA across the platoon. He’s allowed an 8% barrel rate and 46% hard-hit rate in that span. Willi Castro has been producing a lot of quality contact in the air recently, with a 9.3% barrel rate and 48.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching since August 1.

Rodriguez throws his four-seamer more than half the time and has allowed a 51.5% hard-hit rate and .484 xSLG with the pitch. Ben Rice has demolished four-seamers, producing a .778 xSLG and 65.8% hard-hit rate against them this season. He also leads New York with 35 home runs and carries a 15.0% barrel rate overall. I think he's the most likely of any Yankee to go yard and, luckily enough, fits the best value as well

Bohm sports a solid .184 ISO against lefties this season, and he’s put up a 1.750 OPS against Rodriguez across a small sample. So, considering Rodriguez allowed a healthy .195 ISO to right-handed hitters over the previous two seasons, there’s regression ahead of this year’s .146 mark, which lands Bohm in flier territory to cash in and go yard tonight.

Eric Lauer was just sent to the bullpen, where he threw six outs on 51 pitches. However, because of a Roki Sasaki injury, he'll join the rotation and get the start today, but I'm not expecting that leash to be long at all. The lefty wasn't getting the longest of leashes to begin with, and now he's not as stretched out after that 51-pitch outing. Over his last 11 starts, his median pitch count was 89, and after yesterday's day off, the Dodgers' bullpen is loaded and rested. It has thrown just 34 pitches since Sunday. The projections have him at 78 pitches and 14 outs, making a fair price well shorter than -125.

David Fry is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest fences in the league.. Batting from the same side that Casey Mize throws from, David Fry will not have the upper hand today.