MLB Picks

Jacob Misiorowski enters with a 2.11 FIP over the last month while limiting opponents to a 4% barrel rate. His four-seamer remains especially dominant, holding hitters to a .172 average. With Milwaukee also making quality contact lately, the Brewers have the pitching and offensive edge here.

Let's add another All-Star to the home run card at a +EV price of +575, with a fair price closer to +475. The Rookie of the Year frontrunner, Kevin McGonigle, is leading off and should get five plate appearances today against J.T. Ginn, who has been pitching above his underlying numbers all season. The Athletics' starter has also cut his HR/FB rate in half despite generating more fly-ball outs. Regression is coming. Detroit's offense also gets to tee off on an Athletics bullpen that owns the worst HR/FB rate in baseball over the last 30 days, the worst HR/9, and the second-worst ERA. Anything at +500 or better is a play on the rookie. There could also be multiple Tigers home runs today, with Spencer Torkelson (+469) and Riley Greene (+372) joining him as Detroit's most likely long-ball threats.

The Royals laid a thumping on the Phillies yesterday and bring those bats to Citi Field today, where the Mets are going with a bullpen day. Normally that might not be ideal, but it actually sets up well for the Royals' moneyline. The Mets have leaned heavily on their bullpen, using their top three relievers in back-to-back games and six arms yesterday in an extra-inning win over Atlanta. Despite ripping off two straight victories, New York has still allowed 29 runs over its last three games and is in a very tough spot in the late innings today. Kansas City's offense has been quiet for much of the season, but it's coming off its best performance of the year. With the bullpen advantage clearly on the Royals' side, I don't see this closer to a 50/50 than a 56/44.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.