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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 27, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-109 
|
o8.0 -125 
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
4.17 |
+100 
|
u8.5 -115 
|
+1.5 -162
|
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Washington
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Herzs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 home starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+182
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.92 |
+108
|
o7.0 -135
|
+1.5 -177
|
|
4.22 |
-118 
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +170 
|
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Bazs last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
- Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Austin Wells o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1060)
o0.5+1060
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+153
|
o6.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -148
|
|
4.62 |
-170
|
u6.5 -105
|
-1.5 +145
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Philadelphia
- Under is 3-0-1 in Walkers last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Phillies are 5-1 in Walkers last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+263)
o0.5+263
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.47 |
-230
|
o8.5 -103
|
-1.5 -140 
|
|
2.97 |
+210
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 +116
|
LA Dodgers
- Under is 3-0-3 in Dodgers last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 vs. National League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as a favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.36 |
-185
|
o9.5 -124
|
-1.5 -118
|
|
5.32 |
+165
|
u10.5 -130 
|
+1.5 +105
|
Houston
- Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+196
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.16 |
-118
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.81 |
+105
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -162
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Jarren Duran o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+155
|
o8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
4.22 |
-168
|
u8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +120
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+245)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.61 |
-115
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.15 |
+103
|
u8.0 -118
|
+1.5 -159
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in Jones' last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Jones' last 4 road starts.
- Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Spencer Horwitz o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+295
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-105
|
o8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +148
|
|
3.86 |
-104
|
u8.5 -103
|
+1.5 -165
|
Cleveland
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
Kansas City
- Over is 7-0 in Royals last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Lynch IVs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
-140
|
o7.5 -122
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.89 |
+135
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -130
|
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sorokas last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Michael Soroka o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)
o3.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.29 |
+144
|
o6.5 -145
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
3.80 |
-155
|
u7.5 -134
|
-1.5 +137
|
LA Angels
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Angels last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+375)
o0.5+375
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+110
|
o7.5 -143
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.44 |
-120
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +164
|
Atlanta
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a road underdog.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Marlins last 10 home games.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+193)
o0.5+193
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.16 |
+145
|
o8.0 -129
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.36 |
-155
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 4-0 in Freelands last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Freelands last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 13-2-1 in Rockies last 16 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+161)
o0.5+161
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.12 |
+175
|
o6.5 -122
|
+1.5 -122
|
|
4.13 |
-200
|
u7.0 -120
|
-1.5 +115
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as an underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-0-1 in Misiorowskis last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+400)
o0.5+400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
-114
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
3.97 |
+100
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -159
|
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 11-0 in Rangers last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Rangers last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rangers last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Danny Jansen o0.5 Total RBIs (+310)
o0.5+310
NYM
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The 9th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park.. James Wood will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. James Wood has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.2-mph to 97.7-mph in the past week's worth of games.
Total Bases
Mark Vientos u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst park in MLB for righty base hits.. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to less offense.. Mark Vientos will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.. Over the last 7 days, Mark Vientos's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.. In the past week's worth of games, Mark Vientos's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19%.
BAL
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Ben Rice o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-107)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Ben Rice has been one of the hottest bats in the Yankees lineup and draws a favorable matchup against Baz and his struggles against left-handed hitters. Rice enters Sunday with the highest matchup rating in this game on Batters-Box, surpassing this prop in nearly 55% of his 55 elite ratings this season. Over his last 10 games, Rice has posted a .647 SLG, .412 ISO and 16.7% barrel rate. He has also hit .333 with a .762 SLG and .510 ISO over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
Total Hits
Spencer Jones o0.5 Total Hits (-144)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
New York Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones draws a favorable matchup against Baltimore Orioles right-hander Shane Baz this afternoon. Baz has struggled recently, posting a 6.06 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while allowing a 10.53% barrel rate. Left-handed hitters have especially given him trouble, with the last 30 posting a .451 xBA, .684 xSLG and .445 xwOBA against him. Jones has not been the hottest bat in New York’s lineup, but his hard-contact numbers remain encouraging. Over his last 10 games, he owns a 54.2% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate, making him worth backing at $1.44 to record a hit.
TB
@
PHI
Sun, Sep 27 • 2:30 PM ET
Moneyline
TB (+155)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Phillies may have Zack Wheeler on the mound, but I’m not interested in forcing a bet on Philadelphia at this price. The offense has been lifeless, posting an 87 wRC+, 4.4% barrel rate and .113 ISO over its last six games. Meanwhile, Nick Martinez has been just as impressive for Tampa Bay, posting a 2.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP while allowing just a 4% barrel rate over his last three starts. The Rays scored 12 runs in their last game, but I’m not worried about regression. This offense has consistently kept its foot on the gas.
Total
u6.5 (-101)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Runs could be at a premium when the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Philadelphia Phillies this afternoon. After the Rays scored 12 runs against the Phillies last night, regression could be in store in the series finale. Philadelphia’s recent struggles at the plate only add to the case for a lower-scoring matchup. Nick Martinez and Zack Wheeler will take the mound, and both right-handers have pitched well over their last three starts. Martinez and Wheeler each own an ERA slightly above 2.00 during that stretch while sporting sub-1.00 WHIPs, setting the stage for a potential pitching duel.
LAD
@
SF
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total Home Runs (+585)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Mookie Betts hits sinkers very well, posting a 135 wRC+ against the offering this year and a 164 wRC+ over the course of his career. Lonsway tosses sinkers at a 50% rate against righties, so this is a tailor-made matchup for Betts to have a productive day at the office.
The first two games of this series flew Under the total, finishing 2-0 and 4-3 Dodger victories. Here's going back to the well in the finale, given SF's poor offensive metrics [29th in wOBA (.275) across the last 14 days] and LA's lack of motivation with the No. 2 seed locked in.
HOU
@
ATH
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
There's one more day to take advantage of Sutter Health Park. It's the best Over park in baseball and one that still isn't priced correctly after 162 games. Zack Gelof has been promoted up the lineup and gets Houston starter Peter Lambert, who is pitching on short rest. Gelof has already put a notch in his belt against Lambert, with one dinger in four plate appearances against the righty. Gelof has homered in four of his last five series, has a .920 OPS at home, and 15 homers against right-handed pitching. I'd play Gelof to 5x today.
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-145)
Projection 2.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest fences in the league.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 84°.
CHC
@
BOS
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Trevor Story o0.5 Total Home Runs (+880)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Trevor Story sits near the top of the +EV home run bets today, per the projections. His fair price is around 7x compared to this 9.8x. He gets a pitcher who has allowed the second-most home runs in baseball over the last two seasons in Shota Imanaga. Imanaga is always featured here because he brings +EV dinger props: He's a good pitcher, but he does allow homers. He has the 13th-worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among starting pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings, along with the 27th-worst HR/FB rate. The Cubs own the tiebreaker over the Phillies, so their spot in the playoffs is locked in. There could be some mop-up arms for Story to face late in this game.
Total Home Runs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+370)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
CIN
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:07 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Max Scherzer o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
In potentially his last start before retirement, it only makes sense to ride with the legend that is Max Scherzer. It helps that veteran has absolutely dominated this Cincinnati Reds lineup, striking them out at a 35% clip, which includes 10 punchouts of Eugenio Suarez. Not bad if you ask me. Coming off a seven-strikeout performance, I'm expecting Scherzer to go over this number one more time in the emotional end to an outstanding career.
Total Hits
Ernie Clement u0.5 Total Hits (+195)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ernie Clement is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today.. The #10 stadium in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for hurlers.. Ernie Clement's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.9-mph EV last season has fallen to 84.2-mph.. Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 45.5% to 39.9%.
PIT
@
DET
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the 13th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Total Bases
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.
CLE
@
KC
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+440)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jo Adell has hammered left-handed pitching this year, hitting .314 with a .266 ISO and nearly 50% hard hit rate.
Daniel Lynch has a pitching outs line of 15.5 so he’s expected to get plenty of runway, opening the door for multiple Adell at-bats against the lefty.
When Lynch departs, Adell will face a very vulnerable bullpen. Royals relievers rank 29th in home runs per nine innings.
Total
u8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I can’t get to the 8.5 total, and would recommend the Under to 54%.
The Cleveland Guardians have played to the Under in 14 of Messick’s 15 road starts.
While this one could be a little shorter than usual, the Guardians still have an elite bullpen backing him up – and I doubt they get too casual with their usage given they have the entire week to rest.
AZ
@
SD
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-128)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Diamondbacks are stringing together hits nicely but rank 23rd in homers this season. They’re generally not a team that runs up the score with quick-strike offense.
More importantly, the Padres are unlikely to contribute much. Soroka limits hard contact and walks effectively, making him a tough arm to score on at the best of times.
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+358)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Corbin Carroll leads all Arizona Diamondbacks players in ISO (.256) and barrel rate (13.8%) against Randy Vasquez’ most-used pitchers.
Given that, it should be no surprise Carroll has a strong track record facing the righty. Carroll has hit safely in five of 15 at-bats and, more notably, generated nine hard hit balls along the way.
The Padres are also unlikely to throw their best relievers out there with a playoff game coming Tuesday.
LAA
@
SEA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Yusei Kikuchi o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+113)
Projection 5.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for strikeouts.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for pitchers.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cal Raleigh is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will bat from his worse side (0) today against Yusei Kikuchi
ATL
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Griffin Conine u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the worst field in the game for left-handed home runs.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. Griffin Conine pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-deepest RF fences today.. Griffin Conine's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 90.9-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 85.7-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.. Griffin Conine's launch angle in recent games (8.3° over the last 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 12.6° seasonal angle.
Total Bases
Otto Lopez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average talent, Otto Lopez is projected as the 7th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 4th-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Otto Lopez's 58.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.6%.
COL
@
CHW
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total Home Runs (+375)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Munetaka Murakami went yard twice in this series on Friday and gets Kyle Freeland at home with winds blowing out to his pull side. Freeland's leash is short after throwing 69 pitches in his last start and 50 in the outing before that. Murakami could be facing a right-handed reliever by his third at-bat. The Colorado starter has a 6.96 ERA away from Coors Field, and there could be some awful mop-up arms cleaning up the Rockies' losing season, with one of their two lefty options out of the bullpen unavailable. The rookie might not hit .210, but he has launched 35 homers and posted an .826 OPS heading into the final game of the regular season. The fair price is around 4x.
Total Home Runs
Chase Meidroth o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Pick made: an hour ago
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Chase Meidroth has been one of the hottest bats in the White Sox lineup, making him an appealing option in this matchup. Over his last 10 games, Meidroth has posted an .833 SLG and .389 ISO while maintaining a 30% ground-ball rate and 15.4% barrel rate. The matchup gets even more intriguing against left-handed pitching, which has been a major strength for the 25-year-old. Against his last 30 lefties, Meidroth owns a 1.000 SLG and .480 ISO while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate. With his recent production, Meidroth is my favorite look in this matchup. At 10%, we are getting great value.
STL
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Jake Bauers u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today.. Jake Bauers's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 92-mph seasonal average has decreased to 87-mph in the last 14 days.. Jake Bauers's launch angle this year (11.9°) is significantly worse than his 16.6° mark last season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Bauers's true offensive skill to be a .329, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .051 disparity between that mark and his actual .380 wOBA.
Total Bases
Jake Bauers u1.5 Total Bases (-170)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today.. Jake Bauers's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 92-mph seasonal average has decreased to 87-mph in the last 14 days.. Jake Bauers's launch angle this year (11.9°) is significantly worse than his 16.6° mark last season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Bauers's true offensive skill to be a .329, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .051 disparity between that mark and his actual .380 wOBA.
TEX
@
MIN
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Josh Bell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Total
u8.5 (-119)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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