MLB Picks

As it relates to his home run skill, Jake Bauers ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Bauers is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. The #3 ballpark in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (84%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Batting from the opposite that Braxton Ashcraft throws from, Jake Bauers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The #7 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Bryan Hudson throws from, Jeff McNeil will have an edge today.. Jeff McNeil pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last 14 days, Jeff McNeil's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87-mph over the course of the season to 89.9-mph in recent games.. Despite posting a .267 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jeff McNeil has had some very poor luck given the .040 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

When assessing his home run talent, Kody Clemens ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Kody Clemens will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Johnson today... and the cherry on top, Johnson has a large platoon split.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eric Haase in the 11th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Eric Haase is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today's game.. Oracle Park projects as the #26 park in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In Major League Baseball, the highest fences are at Oracle Park.. Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.

When estimating his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Brandon Lowe will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. Brandon Lowe has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV.

Cam Schlittler is a high K%, low BB% pitcher who also limits power extremely well. He has allowed just 0.80 homers per nine innings.

His ability to keep the ball in the park makes it very difficult on opposing offenses to score in bulk.

While the New York Yankees could get to Miles Mikolas, the continued absences of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton take real juice out of the lineup.

Bet to -120.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate at 83°.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When assessing his home run skill, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage against Eury Perez in today's matchup.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Manzardo has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. Kyle Manzardo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 6th-best hitter in the game when assessing his batting average skill.. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 4th-best field in the league for right-handed home runs.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among every team playing today.

Cristopher Sanchez brings a 14-5 NRFI/YRFI record into Detroit despite getting tagged last time out, while Casey Mize has yet to allow a first-inning run across 13 starts. The Tigers have been blanked in the first in two straight, and Philadelphia has missed the opening frame in four consecutive games.

Blaze Alexander is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.. Kansas City's #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Blaze Alexander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.. In the last week's worth of games, Blaze Alexander's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17%.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Blaze Alexander's true offensive ability to be a .310, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .033 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .343 wOBA.

Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage today.. Power-wise, Kyle Higashioka grades out in the 78th percentile, having paced 23.6 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Nick Lodolo is sporting an 8.27 ERA over four home games against teams ranking Top-20 in ISO and OPS in the 10 games prior to facing him.

Javier Assad ranks in the 16th percentile in xBA and third percentile in hard hit rate. That’s not an ideal profile for success against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark.

I expect a shootout, and would play the Over to -115.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. Humid weather has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 82%.. Extreme flyball bats like Ivan Herrera are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Reynaldo Lopez.

George Springer has rediscovered his power with a .467 slugging percentage over his last 15 games and already owns a home run off Walker Buehler, making him an appealing long-shot home run play.

The Dodgers essentially punted Game 1 (a 3-9 loss) after Shohei Ohtani was scratched from his scheduled start, so they're well-positioned to strike back on Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will positively cook with his unhittable splitter (19 wRC+) against a Diamondbacks lineup with the worst results in the league against the offering (-13 runs above average). Brandon Pfaadt (4.95 FIP, 95 Stuff+) has been hit around by these L.A. hitters (.298 AVG).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.