No team enters the World Cup playoffs under more pressure than Italy.
With the real possibility of missing a third straight tournament, expect a tight, controlled approach rather than anything expansive. Italy simply can’t afford mistakes in a knockout setting.
My Italy vs. Northern Ireland predictions and free betting picks for March 26 point to a tense, low-event battle that stays Under the total.
Italy vs Northern Ireland picks and predictions
My Italy vs Northern Ireland best bet: Under 2.5 (-108 at Sports Interaction)
Italy know how this story can end, and that’s exactly why they won’t open things up in this match. After past playoff failures, expect a controlled, defense-first approach, especially with three clean sheets in their last four home matches.
Northern Ireland aren’t built to push the pace anyway. Their last three matches have all finished 1-0, and their five-at-the-back system when out of possession is designed to limit chances and frustrate.
With neither side looking to take risks in a knockout setting, I expect the Italians to find a way to win a low-scoring match.
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Italy vs Northern Ireland same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 2.5
Italy moneyline
Mateo Retegui 2+ shots on target
Pedigree. Class. Desire. This Italian side faces massive pressure to perform, especially at home, but they are the deeper team, and I'll back them to get the job done inside of 90 minutes.
A big part of that will be Mateo Retegui. He's been in good form in Saudi-league action and has always shown up in big moments, netting five goals in eight qualifying games. I expect him to pepper the net every chance he gets.
Italy vs Northern Ireland predicted lineups
Italy (4-4-2): Donnarumma; Palestra, Mancini, Calafiori, Dimarco; Politano, Locatelli, Barella, Frattesi; Retegui, Esposito
Northern Ireland (3-4-2-1): Peacock-Farrell; McConville, Brown, McNair; Hume, Charles, Saville, Devenny; Lyons, Price; Charles
Italy vs Northern Ireland odds
| Italy | Northern Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| -345 | Moneyline | +950 |
| +450 | Draw | +450 |
| Over 2.5 (-133) | Total | Under 2.5 (-108) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
How to watch Italy vs Northern Ireland
| Location | New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy |
| Date | Thursday, March 26, 2026 |
| Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS2 |
| Weather | Cloudy but dry conditions. |
Italy vs Northern Ireland key injuries
Italy: Alessandro Bastoni (Questionable), Gianluca Scamacca (Questionable).
Northern Ireland: Daniel Ballard (Out), Conor Bradley (Out), Jamal Lewis (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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