Bayern Munich are favorites at home, but their depleted attack gives Arsenal a chance to leave the Allianz Arena with a result. Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise are both unavailable, stripping Bayern of two major attacking threats ahead of Wednesday's Champions League showdown.
My Bayern Munich vs Arsenal predictions and free betting picks back the Gunners to take at least a point, despite Bayern's 48% win probability compared to Arsenal's 29% and the draw's 25%.
Kickoff is Wednesday, Oct. 21, at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal predictions
My Bayern Munich vs Arsenal top pick: Bayern not to win (53% probability)
Injuries and suspensions are depriving Bayern Munich of two stars and essential pieces of their attack. Without Jamal Musiala in the No. 10 role, they lack the creativity and movement around Harry Kane to trouble an Arsenal defense that's kept seven clean sheets this season. Michael Olise is also unavailable, and the suspended winger takes with him the trickery to isolate his fullback and an unpredictability that Arsenal would have feared.
For their part, Arsenal are largely healthy and now have enough depth to pose questions from the bench if Bayern dominate early. Ezri Konsa's familiarity with Kane from England duty will also help him contain the free-scoring striker.
Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have toughened up and become specialists at getting the job done, whereas Bayern have often looked flustered on Europe's biggest occasions under Vincent Kompany. That experience, combined with Bayern's absences, means Arsenal should be able to stop the Bavarians from taking all three points.
My Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 goals (40% probability)
Arsenal's defensive quality is well known, and Arteta's decision to play four more traditional center-backs across the back line, rather than conventional fullbacks, allows them to dominate set pieces. What they lose in attack, they make up for in defensive stability, which they'll need against Bayern.
This game could hinge on the matchup down one flank. On Bayern's left, Alphonso Davies plays at left-back with Luis Diaz ahead of him; on Arsenal's right, it's Bukayo Saka and Jurrien Timber. Davies is a huge threat, with his overlapping runs allowing Diaz to move inside, but Saka is known for his defensive work and will need to track back to ease the pressure on Timber.
Bayern's duo must also be wary of pushing too far forward and giving Saka space on the counter. Arsenal have real pace, and if Bayern overcommit, they'll leave plenty of space behind. That threat on both sides should lead to a cautious first half and could keep the scoring low overall.
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Bayern Munich vs Arsenal combo
Arsenal to win
Under 2.5 goals
This combo takes the main picks a step further by backing Arsenal to win outright in a low-scoring game. Their experience in this competition, including reaching last year's final, gives them an edge. An early Gunners goal could prompt Arteta to sit deep, absorb pressure, and pounce on turnovers.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal odds
Bayern Munich
ArsenalOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
| Location | Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Rain |
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal key injuries
Bayern Munich: Jamal Musiala FWR (Out), Michael Olise FWR (Out), Manuel Neuer GK (Questionable), Kim Min-Jae CB (Questionable).
Arsenal: Christos Tzolis FWR (Out), Piero Hincapie LB (Out), William Saliba CB (Out), Kepa Arrizabalaga GK (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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