In what could be the last stand for El Salvador in 2022 CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying, they will head into Columbus to face the USA on Thursday.
The visitors were expected to be among a host of teams fighting for the third automatic qualification spot but have just six points from eight games. The USMNT, meanwhile, sit second on 15 points, a point up on Mexico and Panama, and a point behind Canada — who they will meet on Sunday.
Here are our free soccer picks and predictions for USA vs. El Salvador, as World Cup Qualifying resumes on January 27.
USA vs El Salvador game info
• Location: Lower.com Field, Columbus, OH
• Date: Thursday, January 27, 2022
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
USA vs El Salvador betting tips
Read on for complete analysis
USA vs El Salvador match odds
USA: -500
El Salvador: +1,200
Draw: +500
Total: 2.5
Over: -115
Under: -115
USA vs El Salvador betting preview
Weather
The USA and El Salvador will be faced with brutally cold conditions on Thursday, with temperatures at kickoff expected to be around 25 degrees Fahrenheit — before accounting for wind chill. There's a 40% chance of snow, as well.
Injuries
USA: No injuries to report.
El Salvador: No injuries to report.
USA vs El Salvador predictions
Side analysis
After playing exciting, competitive soccer at the 2021 Gold Cup, many expected El Salvador to factor heavily into the final round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying. That notion was furthered after they gritted out a 0-0 draw with the USA to begin the final round, but there has been little delivering on that promise since then.
Through eight games in qualifying, El Salvador sit on just six points with only one win, a 1-0 home victory over Panama, to show for it. They closed out 2021 by blowing their chance to get back into contention, as a 1-0 lead over Panama evaporated in the second half of a 2-1 loss. They're now eight points adrift with six games to play, while meetings with the USMNT and Canada are ahead this week.
El Salvador have been one of the most consistent teams, as far as what to expect from them, in the region for a while. They're committed to playing open, expansive soccer in an attempt to attack even superior opponents. While that is, at this point, clearly a program-wide commitment with an eye toward the future, it's also done more harm than good in this campaign. They lack the attacking quality to reward proactive tactics, with just four goals in qualifying, and their defense has been harmed as a result of the expansive style, conceding 10 goals in their previous six games.
That stretch of games has seen teams with similar quality to the USMNT take them out, losing 3-0 to Canada, 2-0 to Mexico, and 2-1 to Panama. Now, it's the U.S.'s turn to take a run at El Salvador and they're primed to make up for the underwhelming draw in September.
The USMNT boast two quality keepers in Zack Steffen and Matt Turner. Their defense is composed largely of European-based players, lessening the concerns of the MLS offseason leaving players rusty. Their midfield three of Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, and Yunus Musah is the best in the region and without concern at the moment, as McKennie joins the national team in great form for Juventus after a poor few months. Brenden Aaronson, Ricardo Pepi, Christian Pulisic, and Tim Weah offer a wealth of attacking options.
Squad rotation will no doubt factor in, with a game against qualifying-leaders Canada on Sunday, but it won't change the result in Columbus. The USMNT are considerably better than El Salvador and even with a rotated squad, will leave Thursday's freezing conditions with three points.
Prediction: USA (-500)
Over/Under analysis
The weather in Columbus, expected to be absolutely hellish, has to factor in here. The wind will wreak havoc on anything played through the air, while it will be made so much harder to put proper weight on passes with a frozen ball and a turf doing its best to keep heated amid freezing conditions.
El Salvador, in particular, will find the conditions incredibly unfamiliar and unkind. An already quiet attack will be all the more so in freezing Columbus. In eight qualifiers, El Salvador have gone scoreless four times while netting a single goal in each of the other four. That's despite a program-wide commitment to playing expansive, attacking soccer. In ideal circumstances, their lack of quality in the attacking third has been apparent, so it would be difficult to trust them to score here.
The USMNT, however, may be similarly frustrated. It was, after all, this same El Salvador team that forced the U.S. into a poor start in qualifying. In that game, in early September, El Salvador did a superb job of forcing the USMNT to try and go more direct, ending in a 0-0 draw.
While we should trust the USMNT to make necessary changes and adapt from the first meeting, they'll be hard-pressed to score three themselves. They've only done so once during this qualifying campaign, against a poor Honduras team, and could be a bit more sloppy Thursday as the roster's MLS players are mid-offseason.
It should be a straightforward win for the USMNT but not a high-scoring one.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-115)
Best bet
As mentioned, El Salvador did a good job of stifling the USMNT in the first meeting between these two. One would have to imagine, after the success that was their 0-0 draw, that Thursday's visitors will attempt to again force the U.S. to play direct and not allow their opponents to progress forward with ease. Compounding that suspected issue for the USA is the weather, which will no doubt muck everything up.
In order to bypass El Salvador's tight marking and the unwelcoming weather, the U.S. will need to come with a fresh game plan to the one from September. One would have to imagine that game plan will rely heavily on Ricardo Pepi. Luckily for the U.S., Pepi's strengths mesh well with how his team may be forced to play.
Pepi is excellent at finding space in the penalty area, drifting off defenders into little pockets. When El Salvador pressure the ball intensely, the U.S.'s creators will need to find an outlet almost immediately, and with Pepi's intelligence and urgency in getting into space, they'll be able to find him when they're operating in the attacking third.
When the ball falls to Pepi, El Salvador will have little chance to react, as the teenager is superb at using the space he's created to shoot. Among the 26 players that scored 10+ goals in MLS last season, Pepi ranked 10th in xG per shot (tied with Golden Boot winner Taty Castellanos), highlighting his ability to convert chances.
In an ugly, intense game, the USMNT need a striker to take however many chances do come. In Pepi, they have just that.
Pick: Ricardo Pepi anytime goal (-110)
