A crucial window in Canada's World Cup Qualifying campaign will begin in San Pedro Sula on Thursday, as John Herdman's team heads south to face Honduras.
Canada finished 2021 atop the table in CONCACAF qualifying but will begin 2022 with sky-high stakes, as their meeting with Honduras will be followed by dates with the USMNT and El Salvador. They can put an end to Honduras' qualifying campaign Thursday, as the hosts sit rock bottom of the table with just three points with six games to go.
Here are our free soccer picks and predictions for Honduras vs. Canada, with kickoff on January 27.
Honduras vs Canada game info
• Location: Olimpico Metropolitano, San Pedro Sula, Honduras
• Date: Thursday, January 27, 2022
• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, OneSoccer
Honduras vs Canada betting tips
Read on for complete analysis
Honduras vs Canada match odds
Honduras: +250
Canada: +110
Draw: +220
Total: 2.5
Over: +140
Under: -180
Honduras vs Canada betting preview
Weather
Canada will face a hot and humid night in San Pedro Sula on Thursday in World Cup Qualifying. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 75 degrees Fahrenheit, made worse by humidity around 80%.
Injuries
Honduras: No injuries to report.
Canada: Junior Hoilett AM (Questionable), Alphonso Davies LW (Out), Stephen Eustaquio CM (Out).
Honduras vs Canada predictions
Side analysis
Though Canada's men's team is set to play in some of the biggest games in the program's history, a large portion of the attention is first given to who is not there. That would be superstar Alphonso Davies, already the biggest name and best player in men's history for Canada, who will miss this window as a result of complications following COVID-19. However, while the news of Davies' absence is deflating, it doesn't put an end to Canada's rightful status as favorites here.
For proof of how Canada handles Davies' absence, we simply have to look to last summer. It was then that a Canada team, without Davies, made it to the semifinal of the Gold Cup (for the first time since 2007), knocking off regional elder statesmen Costa Rica in the quarterfinals and pushing Mexico to the brink in the final four.
Two of Canada's best performers in the knockout stages were Junior Hoilett and Tajon Buchanan, who will likely start on either wing with Davies out, and are a testament to the depth Canada has accumulated. Similarly, while Stephen Eustaquio — arguably a Top 3 midfielder in CONCACAF — tested positive for COVID-19 and has been ruled out Thursday, Canada have the depth to adequately navigate his absence with Mark-Anthony Kaye, Jonathan Osorio, and Atiba Hutchinson already having played key parts in the qualifying campaign so far.
Canada's talent and depth have been emphasized time and time again over the last year, which has seen some amazing milestones. Ahead of this window, that rings true yet again with Davies and Eustaquio out.
More pressing than those who won't be there for Canada is where the game will take place. The cauldron of Central America is where qualifying campaigns thrive or die, with the intensity on and off the pitch ramped all the way up. Canada's already experienced it once this cycle, in a 0-0 draw with Jamaica in Kingston. However, Honduras have hardly boasted a dominant home record this year, with a single 0-0 draw with Costa Rica their lone home result. Otherwise, the USA (4-1), Jamaica (2-0), and Panama (3-2) have all come into San Pedro Sula and gotten straightforward results.
Canada are a superior team to Jamaica and Panama, and are the USMNT's equal at this point in the program's development. While squad rotation will factor in with two massive games to follow, there won't be a repeat of the 1-1 draw between these two in Toronto that started qualifying. Herdman will get his team selection right and Canada will head home with three points in the bag.
Prediction: Canada (+110)
Over/Under analysis
Canada are CONCACAF's highest-scoring team up to this point, with 13 goals in eight games. They've scored multiple goals in three games and failed to score just once. They also have the joint-best defensive record, having conceded just five times so far. Honduras, meanwhile, have conceded 15 goals, five more than the second-worst team, and have been hit for multiple goals in five games. They have also scored just five goals and have gone scoreless in four of eight games.
So, it's pretty clear that the Over will be dependent on Canada — and we're willing to lean on them here. They've got plenty of firepower going forward, enough so that they should be immune to whatever squad rotation is done.
A heavily rotated squad would likely see Ike Ugbo — in a perfect world, Canada's fourth or fifth-choice striker — start up top. Ugbo is a bit down the depth chart for Canada but he's a 22-year-old scoring 0.44 goals per 90 at Genk, one of Belgium's biggest teams, and just scored 16 goals as a 21-year-old in his first season in a top-flight league. He may be new to the Canadian program but he clearly has the quality to punish a poor defense, and that's what he would see in Honduras.
Honduras' defensive woes have been apparent well before this qualifying round. In 2018, when Honduras missed out on a World Cup spot due to goal difference, they were sunk by a final-round-worst 19 goals allowed in 10 games — conceding in every home game. They conceded five in their final two Gold Cup games over the summer and have since allowed four goals to the USMNT, three to Mexico, two to Jamaica, three to Panama, and two to Costa Rica.
Three goals should be the expectation for Canada here. As Honduras learned the hard way four years ago, every goal matters. Canada won't make the same mistake.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (+140)
Best bet
There is, of course, reason for pause. Canada may lineup with a relatively weaker team in order to prioritize the upcoming two games and any trip into Central America is going to be taxing, but Canada at plus-money to beat this Honduras team is our best bet.
This is a Honduras team that have lost four consecutive qualifiers, and five of six, with the reprieve being that 0-0 draw against a seriously mediocre Costa Rica. Their qualifying campaign has seen them outscored 15-5, with Mexico, the USA, and Panama — Canada's most prominent competition toward qualification — hitting them for 3+ each.
Canada, on the other hand, have outscored their opponents 13-5 in what is still an undefeated qualifying campaign. They've gone to Haiti, Mexico, Jamaica, and the USA and gotten results over the last year. The two games to follow are two of the hardest and most important left in qualifying, and they simply cannot afford to drop points in a spot like this ahead of those games.
Pick: Canada (+110)
