Seattle Sounders FC vs LAFC Predictions and Picks: Sounders Shoosh L.A. Offense

Sunday night brings us a heavyweight clash in the MLS Western Conference semifinals, as the Seattle Sounders meet up with LAFC for the third time this season. 

The Sounders missed the playoffs a season ago, but have participated in four of the past seven MLS Cup finals. They’re desperate to return for the first time since losing in 2020 and managed to advance past Dallas on the back of a pair of home clean sheets.

For LAFC, a difficult and controversial 1-0 away victory saw them past Vancouver in the last round as they swept their series. The third seed in the West love to apply pressure to their opponents and use their pace on the break, and Golden Boot winner Denis Bouanga will hope to add to his nine goals over their past five outings.

When Seattle and LAFC get together, it tends to be a tense and closely-fought affair. Find out why that plays into your betting favor in my Seattle Sounders vs LAFC free betting picks for Sunday, November 26.  

Seattle Sounders FC vs LAFC best odds

Seattle Sounders FC vs LAFC picks and predictions

Only the New York Red Bulls allowed fewer shots on target this season than Seattle and LAFC. Both sides allowed less than 120 attempts on goal, and they also finished among the four stingiest defenses in regards to total shots allowed. 

That’s a key reason why the Under 2.5 for this game is priced at -140. And I love that bet... but not with the juice involved.

But TonyBet is offering a "No" bet on Both teams to score at -109, and I’m making it my best bet for the match. It’s a sneaky way to get a similar play at better value, and the likelihood of it hitting is very close to that of the Under. 

Seattle has not conceded a goal in their last three home fixtures, as they kept a pair of clean sheets against Dallas to win their playoff series — Those sandwiched a 3-1 defeat at Dallas, their only loss in their past 12 matches.

Those three goals from Dallas are also the only goals they’ve allowed in their last five matches. They’ve kept five clean sheets in their last seven overall, including shutouts of St. Louis and Nashville. On the season, Seattle allowed the fewest goals of any side, with their net being breached just 32 times.

For LAFC, their offensive output over the past six weeks has been very different from what they were producing in September. They’ve scored in five straight matches, after a run of four fixtures across all competitions where they failed to score a single goal.

Bouanga is a key reason for that turnaround. He’s scored or assisted on 10 of their 16 goals over the past five matches, and he’s coming off an international break in which he scored in both matches with Gabon. 

But Seattle has done a phenomenal job against him in their two meetings this year. He was held to just two shots in each match, a far cry from the 4.4 attempts he’s averaged per game this season. 

And to be fair, both sides matched up very evenly. Their two meetings this season saw just one goal scored, which came in LAFC’s 1-0 home win back in June. That goal was a fluke first-minute goal, scored when a shot from range took a wicked deflection past Stefan Frei. The attempt had an xG of just 0.05, showing how unlikely a goal it was.

The style of play these teams employ lends itself to a bit of a stalemate, and there’s so much defensive talent on both sides of the pitch that goals are going to be very hard to come by once again. I’m projecting a 1-0 win for Seattle, but it’s more likely we see a match where one team, or perhaps both teams, fails to find the back of the net on the day.

LAFC have not won at Lumen Field since their first visit in 2018, and three of their last five visits have seen them go home without a goal. I see them struggling to score here once again, so take both teams to not score and avoid the juice in what should be another low-scoring slog. 

My best bet: Both teams to score: No (-109 at TonyBet)

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Seattle Sounders FC vs LAFC same-game parlay

Both teams to score: No

Seattle to qualify

Under 3.0

+275 at bet365

First, I'm taking the Sounders to advance to the Western Conference final. It may take penalties or extra time, but Seattle should be able to ride the home support and eke out the win.

I'm also backing the Under 2.5 as the juice doesn’t hurt as much here. I’ve already discussed why it’s likely to hit, and it boosts my parlay here to a solid +275 payout. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Seattle Sounders FC vs LAFC side and Over/Under analysis

The 3-way money line has Seattle favored, but it’s one of the closer splits I’ve seen in a while. The Sounders can be had at +155 to win at bet365, the best price on the board. LAFC is being offered as high as +195, while the draw is paying +230 at BetRivers. There hasn’t been much movement at all on any of the three options this week.

LAFC have gotten a draw in each of their last two trips to Lumen Field over the past two seasons, but they lost four straight prior to that. In fact, the past 11 meetings have either been won by the home side or have resulted in a draw. That’s why I’ll be taking Seattle draw no bet, and staying away from the 3-way line.

As for the total, I’ve gone in-depth on the number and the reason behind it. The Under opened late last week around -110 and quickly was moved by the public, as many are expecting another low-scoring affair. If you want to play the total, I’d recommend avoiding the juice. Go for the Under 2.25 or Under 2.0 Asian totals instead. 

Seattle Sounders FC vs LAFC game info

Seattle Sounders FC vs LAFC key injuries

Seattle Sounders FC: Reed Baker-Whiting D (Out), Sota Kitahara M (Out). 
LAFC: No injuries to report.

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