We are closing in on MLS Decision Day, and that means every point matters as the clubs enter Matchday 32.
That's likely why nearly half the matches in last weekend's slate finished level, and my MLS moneyline picks for this weekend back a similar storyline.
We have a full slate of entertaining matches headlined by El Tráfico on Sunday, and my free soccer picks for Matchday 32 explain where you can find some value as you trade the market this weekend.
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 32
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 CF Montreal vs  Nashville SC |
Nashville SC 61% |
 Columbus Crew vs  Toronto FC |
Draw 20% |
 New York Red Bulls vs  Inter Miami CF |
Inter Miami CF 53% |
 Atlanta United FC vs  Chicago Fire |
Chicago Fire 40% |
 Orlando City SC vs  New York City FC |
Orlando City SC 43% |
 Philadelphia Union vs  New England Revolution |
Draw 20% |
 Sporting Kansas City vs  Austin FC |
Draw 24% |
 Houston Dynamo vs  Minnesota United FC |
Draw 26% |
 FC Dallas vs  San Jose Earthquakes |
Draw 23% |
 Real Salt Lake vs  St. Louis CITY SC |
Real Salt Lake 39% |
 Colorado Rapids vs  Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
Draw 25% |
 Portland Timbers vs  Charlotte FC |
Charlotte FC 30% |
 San Diego FC vs  Seattle Sounders FC |
Seattle Sounders FC 33% |
 LAFC vs  LA Galaxy |
Draw 20% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60.
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Expert MLS moneyline picks
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC pick: Nashville SC
Montreal suffered a humiliating penalty shootout loss to Forge FC in the Canadian Championship Final on Wednesday night, but they also played down a man for more than an hour. Now they play an early match on Saturday, where fatigue and a long injury list will hurt them against a very strong Nashville side. I expected this probability to be much higher, so jump on this number now.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC pick: Draw
Columbus are the better side, and under normal circumstances, I would back them. But the Crew comes off a crushing penalty shootout defeat to St. Louis in the US Open Cup after 120 grueling minutes, and I think this number is too generous to pass up for a Toronto side playing well down the stretch.
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami CF pick: Inter Miami
The Red Bulls have managed just two wins in their last eight home games and have the fourth-fewest home points in the Eastern Conference this season. Miami is far better on the road, averaging two points per match, and will push their win streak to four as they look to lock up second place in the conference.
Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire pick: Chicago
Atlanta United's 0.10 xG per shot is the fifth-worst in the league this season, and they've allowed 13 goals in their last five home matches. Failure at both ends of the pitch is why they sit second-to-last in the East, and I'll back Chicago to get back to winning ways after defeats to two of the conference's best teams.
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC pick: Orlando City
Orlando has won five straight at home with a +9 goal differential and hosts an injury-riddled NYCFC side that has scored just four goals in its last five matches. The Lions know they need a win to avoid slipping into the play-in game, and they'll get it done.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution pick: Draw
Philadelphia hasn't lost in 15 matches, but last weekend's 2-2 home draw with Charlotte showed they can still be beaten. The Revs are playing well down the stretch, and Philly's probability is far too high in this spot between two of the conference's best teams.
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC pick: Draw
I'm not backing either club to win. Both defenses are getting shredded, with each club conceding 12 goals in the last four matches. Add in the fact they have managed only one win in their last 10 combined fixtures, and I'm backing a stalemate here.
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC pick: Draw
This is another spot where two struggling defenses meet teams that can't hold onto leads. Houston has drawn six of their last 10, including three straight—each via a late goal. That includes their 2-2 draw in Minnesota just three matches ago, where the Loons conceded in stoppage time.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes pick: Draw
Dallas hasn't conceded in three of its last four home games and has taken 13 of 15 points in its last five at Toyota Stadium. San Jose hasn't lost in nine matches and is unbeaten in its last five on the road. These teams are vying for third in the West, and neither will want to slip up, making this probability very favorable.
Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis CITY SC pick: Real Salt Lake
RSL have found some form, with seven points claimed from their last four matches. Meanwhile, St. Louis saw their unbeaten streak snapped last weekend when they rotated ahead of the US Open Cup final. Their penalty shootout win over Columbus sees them likely a bit hungover—literally and figuratively—and dealing with tired legs. Add in the loss of GK Roman Burki to a head injury, and the altitude will be too much to overcome.
Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC pick: Draw
I don't think the market has fully caught up to the fact that this banged-up Vancouver team isn't the same as it was before September. The Whitecaps have just nine points from their last eight matches and face a Colorado side with the second-most points at home in the West. That said, Colorado has drawn their last three at home and will draw for the fifth time in six matches overall.
Portland Timbers vs Charlotte FC pick: Charlotte
This is a value play, as Portland is trading at far too high a number for a team that hasn't won in seven matches. Charlotte has lost only twice in their last 10 and came off an impressive 2-2 draw with Philly. The draw is tempting, but Charlotte is vying for a playoff home match and has simply been more reliable.
San Diego FC vs Seattle Sounders FC pick: Seattle
How bad has San Diego's defense been of late? They've conceded 19 goals from just 13.18 xG over their last six matches, which is why they've slid out of the playoff spots. Seattle's defense is simply better and will have an answer for San Diego's attacking strength.
LAFC vs LA Galaxy pick: Draw
El Trafico closes out the weekend and presents a great opportunity for us. LAFC's trading at 62%, which is far too high for a club that dropped points to NYCFC last week and has won only two of its last 13 matches. The Galaxy have claimed 18 points from their last 10 matches, but they've beaten LAFC away from home just twice in 13 attempts—one in the Open Cup.
- Moneyline picks: 151-218, -6.62 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
