As we close out August, the race for the playoff spots in Major League Soccer is starting to heat up.
This weekend's slate features multiple matchups between clubs fighting for playoff positioning, headlined by Nashville SC hosting FC Cincinnati and St. Louis City taking on FC Dallas.
I break down all the action with our MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 22!
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 22
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Seattle Sounders vs  Chicago Fire |
Draw 24% |
 Atlanta United vs  Charlotte FC |
Draw 26% |
 D.C. United vs  Los Angeles FC |
Los Angeles FC 50% |
 Inter Miami vs  CF Montreal |
Draw 16% |
 New York Red Bulls vs  Philadelphia Union |
Philadelphia Union 45% |
 Toronto FC vs  New York City FC |
Toronto FC 39% |
 Houston Dynamo vs  San Jose Earthquakes |
Houston Dynamo 57% |
 Minnesota United vs  Orlando City |
Draw 23% |
 Nashville SC vs  FC Cincinnati |
Nashville SC 55% |
 Sporting Kansas City vs  Vancouver Whitecaps |
Vancouver Whitecaps 69% |
 Colorado Rapids vs  Real Salt Lake |
Colorado Rapids 49% |
 Portland Timbers vs  Austin FC |
Portland Timbers 61% |
 San Diego FC vs  LA Galaxy |
San Diego FC 55% |
 Columbus Crew vs  New England Revolution |
Draw 25% |
 St. Louis City vs  FC Dallas |
Draw 26% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 22
Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire pick: Draw
The Sounders picked up a key attacking weapon with the transfer of Dejan Joveljic, but that's not enough to overcome the numerous injuries in their midfield. Peter Kingston's suspension won't help matters against a Fire side that is rolling in the league with Robert Lewandowski.
That said, tired legs after a mid-week trip to Monterrey will see Chicago drop points on the road.
Atlanta United vs Charlotte FC pick: Draw
Two familiar names to European fans will take center stage as Breel Embolo and Allan Saint-Maximin square off. Embolo will help an inconsistent Atlanta attack, but ASM's outstanding start has Charlotte scoring for fun of late.
Both teams push their unbeaten runs to four matches with a highly entertaining draw.
D.C. United vs Los Angeles FC pick: LAFC
A matchup of two teams that have hit a run of poor form; LAFC has the better defense and more attacking talent. DC United has just one win in their last 10 league outings, and if Tai Baribo isn't scoring, neither are his teammates.
They have also taken just 12 points from 10 home matches, with only Sporting KC having claimed fewer. LAFC presents solid value at just 50% probability.
Inter Miami vs CF Montreal pick: Draw
Oh look, it's another Argentine manager for the Herons. I'm sure bringing in another compatriot of Lionel Messi will fix the team of aging friends of Lionel Messi who continue to cash a paycheck while looking to Lionel Messi to carry them through another horrid performance.
I wouldn't back them to win at 71% probability on a good run of form, let alone after losing four and drawing in their last five. Gimme Montreal to snatch a point and extend their unbeaten run to five matches.
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union pick: Philadelphia Union
Cavan Sullivan is putting people on notice that the hype was warranted. He scored again in the draw with Austin last week, helping push Philly's unbeaten run to six matches under interim manager Ryan Richter. The Red Bulls have scored just five goals in their last five matches and were dominated 3-1 in Philly just a month ago.
They'll take all three points off NYRB for the fifth time in six meetings.
Toronto FC vs New York City FC pick: Toronto FC
I predicted Toronto would get a result at Inter Miami last week, but I wasn't expecting them to go on the road and win. They've suddenly found some offense, and look to get a fifth straight result against an NYCFC team that can't buy a second-half goal to save their lives. NYCFC has taken one draw while losing four of their last five in all comps, and not once have they scored after intermission.
Toronto will survive the first half, and then claim all three points with a second-half strike to continue their surprising run.
Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes pick: Houston
Houston have been rock-solid at home, with seven wins and a draw in all competitions over their last eight home tilts. San Jose have claimed just four points in their last 10 away fixtures in all competitions, and have been outscored 13-5 in their last four league outings.
This one's a no-brainer for me, and the Dynamo are seeing their probability at Kalshi rising by the hour, so don't wait much longer.
Minnesota United vs Orlando City pick: Draw
Orlando have struggled mightily on the road this season, taking just seven of a possible 30 points. But Minnesota have been far better away from home this campaign, with just 11 points from 10 home fixtures.
The Loons ended a five-match losing streak last week, but I don't understand their odds here. With how little I can trust either side, a draw seems like the perfect way to approach this contest.
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati pick: Nashville
When I begin writing this piece each week, the first thing I do is find Nashville's match and write them in. Last week they showed why, scoring two stoppage-time goals to escape with a victory against Columbus.
No club in MLS history has had 49 points after 21 matches until now, and they've dropped points just once at home in their last 11 fixtures. Cincinnati will keep this close, but the home side's attack will be too much for FCC to overcome.
Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps pick: Vancouver
Vancouver's pricing of 69¢ is understandably hard for some to swallow. But the Whitecaps suddenly figured things out by destroying a really good Dallas side last week, dropping five goals on them.
Sporting KC isn't just going for the Wooden Spoon; they're in contention for one of the worst seasons in the history of the league. And now they're without the aforementioned Joveljic. This one will get ugly—so I'd suggest taking the spread of Vancouver -1.5 if you want to mitigate your risk.
Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake pick: Colorado Rapids
Real Salt Lake enters the latest edition of the Rocky Mountain Cup without a win in their last seven league matches, following a Leagues Cup defeat on Tuesday, when they fell 3-0 to Leon.
They've yet to figure out how to replace Zavier Gozo's production, and now face a Colorado side that has won four in a row at home without conceding. Getting the Rapids below 50% feels like a gift here.
Portland Timbers vs Austin FC pick: Portland
I'm not a huge fan of Portland's price of 61¢ to defeat Austin at home, without seeing how they'll play after the sale of ST Kevin Kelsy midweek. But Austin have been abysmal on the road, claiming just six points from 11 matches.
Add in their midweek defeat in the Leagues Cup, and a trip out west puts them in a bad spot. The Timbers are the right play, even with the elevated price.
San Diego FC vs LA Galaxy pick: San Diego
San Diego has outscored their opponents 8-2 over their last four home matches, claiming victory in each. Their 3-0 win over Colorado last week was impressive, and their solid run of form has them just one point out of the playoff spots in the Western Conference.
The Galaxy are in free-fall with just one victory in their last eight matches, and their only win came against that bad San Jose side at home. Add in San Diego's motivation to beat Chucky Lozano, and the home team are the better side to back.
Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution pick: Draw
The Crew comes into this match after a 2-0 defeat to America in the Leagues Cup, pushing their losing skid to four matches. However, the Revs have taken just five points from their last five matches.
No club has dropped more points from a winning position this season than Columbus, and I expect it'll happen again as New England finds a way to escape with a point.
St. Louis City vs FC Dallas pick: Draw
Don't be alarmed by the 5-0 defeat Dallas took at the hands of the Whitecaps. They rotated nearly their entire starting squad for that match.
League-leading scorer Petar Musa will be back in the lineup, and he'll help them get a point off a St. Louis City side that has gone 12 matches without suffering a loss. Look for these teams to end proceedings level for the third meeting in a row.
- Moneyline picks: 102-144, -10.16 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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