Man City vs Man United Predictions and Picks: City Runs the Derby

Our soccer betting picks won't throw the formbook out the window ahead of the latest Manchester Derby, as Man City is simply better than Man United. Erling Haaland is a major reason why, and Sam Farley is looking to one of his player props on Sunday.

Mar 3, 2024 • 08:09 ET • 4 min read
Erling Haaland EPL Man City
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We have a huge Premier League derby this afternoon with Manchester City vs. Manchester United, and I have the soccer picks you need for the game. 

While Man City are chasing a third Premier League title in a row, Man United are just hoping to make the Top 4. Despite the differences in league position, we know that derbies can break the formbook.

Will Man City continue their dominant ways or will Erik ten Hag’s team pull off an upset in the soccer odds? Don’t miss our Manchester City vs. Manchester United soccer picks and predictions.

Man City vs Man United best odds

EPL predictions for Man City vs Man United

There aren’t many more enjoyable games in the Premier League than any of the biggest derbies in the country, and Sunday’s Man City vs Man United clash certainly fits the bill as one of those. It hasn’t always been like that, with City so long in United’s shadow, but over the past decade the tables have turned and now it’s United wishing they could emulate City’s achievements.

They often say that the formbook doesn’t matter when it comes to derbies, but with Man City coming into this weekend just one spot off top and Man United some way off even the fourth place needed for Champions League qualification, that may not be true. The reality is that the gulf in class between these two teams has grown and looks like it will only continue to get bigger. Our best bet for the game focuses on this gap, and one of the reasons for it.

That reason isn’t structural or managerial, it’s one player who excels, in stark contrast to those playing in his position at Man United. Our best bet for Man City vs Man United is for Erling Haaland to score first.

The 23-year old has been a revelation since joining City the summer before last. Last season he scored 36 goals in 35 games in the league and added another 13 in other competitions. This season he’s bagged 17 in 21 Premier League games and comes into this fixture in red-hot form.

Haaland returned from injury at the end of January, an injury that had kept him off the field for nearly two months, it wasn’t until his third game that he got his first goal, netting a brace, and since then he’d scored just one in four. That was until earlier this week in which he bagged five goals in Man City’s 6-2 FA Cup win over fellow Premier League side Luton. He was taken off after 77 minutes to rest ahead of this game and will really fancy himself against Man United.

When these two met at Old Trafford in October it was Haaland who opened the scoring, bagging two in a 3-0 win. He also got a hat trick in this fixture last season, a game in which City won 6-3.

We’re likely to see a Man United back four of Diogo Dalot and Sofyan Amrabat as fullback with Victor Lindelof and Raphael Varane as central defenders with Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martinez, and Luke Shaw all injured. Haaland will fancy his chances against that defense and will use his athleticism, as well as his reading of the game, to make dangerous runs which can expose United’s poor backline.

At +245, you’re getting good value on Haaland opening the scoring.

My best bet: Erling Haaland to score first (+245 at TonyBet)

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Man City vs Man United same-game parlay

Erling Haaland to score first

Man City win at halftime

Man City win at fulltime

Here’s our same-game parlay for Manchester City vs. Manchester United on Sunday that builds on our best bet for the game.

We’re starting by adding Man City to be winning at halftime. City have been in the lead at halftime in 50% of their Premier League games so far this season but an incredible 10 of 13 at home, which just demonstrates their dominance at Etihad.

Then to wrap up the SGP, we’re backing Man City to win the game. The reason for this is that they’re simply too good. City started the season so poorly as they looked to get over their treble winning hangover and regain motivation after reaching hallowed ground. Despite that poor start, they’re still 15 points clear of United and their last defeat was 19 games ago.

They’ve won this fixture in each of the past three seasons and should do again here against a Man United side with some big injuries such as Rasmus Holjund.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Man City vs Man United side and Over/Under analysis

There’s no doubt that Man City are rightful favorites but with odds on -358 on the moneyline I simply can’t recommend betting on them. You’re better off betting on Man City/Man City on the halftime/fulltime market at -159 than just City straight. You can get the draw at +540 or away win at +860 but you’re better off saving your money than chasing those big numbers.

The sportsbooks are certain we’ll see goals with Over 2.5 goals at -244 and +204 if you want to back Under 2.5 goals. There’s good reason for the Over being such a short price and that’s because it likely lands. The Over has landed in 65.4% of Man United’s games this season, including every single Premier League fixture since Christmas. The Over has also landed in 61.5% of Man City’s league games too.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Man City vs Man United game info

Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
Date: Sunday, March 3, 2024
Time: 10:30 a.m. ET
TV: Peacock
Weather: 44F, 6 mph winds, 5% PoP

Man City vs Man United key injuries

Man City: Jack Grealish LW (Out), Josko Gvardiol CB (Questionable).
Man United: Anthony Martial STR (Out), Tyrell Malacia LB (Out), Mason Mount CM (Out), Lisandro Martinez CB (Out), Aaron Wan-Bissaka RB (Out), Luke Shaw LB (Out), Rasmus Hojlund STR (Out), Harry Maguire CB (Questionable).

Man City vs Man United recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Man City Man City W-W-D-W-W
Manchester United Man United L-W-W-W-W

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