The Euro 2024 disappointment should be gone by now for Italy and Belgium, as they both look to rebuild ahead of next year's World Cup Qualifiers.
A fair fight between the two national teams is expected, and Norwegian referee Espen Eskas could take center stage in this duel. Read more below as my Italy vs. Belgium predictions and free betting picks for Thursday, October 10 focus on cards.
Italy vs Belgium picks and predictions
My best bet:
Over 3.5 yellow cards (-143 at Betano)
My analysis
Italy currently leads Group A2 in the Nations League, ahead of France, Belgium, and Israel. Head coach Luciano Spalletti managed to turn things around and seems to have glued together another group of players capable of challenging the best.
Belgium's mood is different, traveling to Rome without veteran stars Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. This has allowed Tedesco to explore replacements for the future, as official Nations League matches serve as a crucial foundation for a future development framework.
Eager to impress Tedesco, the young and less experienced Belgium players might find themselves exposed in certain moments of their clash against Italy, and that can easily lead to cards. The tactical system deployed by Spalletti with three players at the back also encourages duels and contacts, which is another potential source for bookings.
Meanwhile, Norwegian referee Espen Eskas is not holding back from punishing those who play outside the rules. In all but two of his previous eight games in charge, he showed at least four yellow cards. Taking Over 3.5 yellows at a -143 price provides solid value on Thursday.
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Italy vs Belgium same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 3.5 bookings
Over 1.5 goals
Over 4.5 corners in the second half
Italy scored a combined five goals in the two matches they played so far, while Belgium netted on three occasions. The Italians also boast the second-highest number of goals from all the 16 teams in the Nations League Group A, trailing only Germany.
Considering they're playing at home against an opponent that's not in its best form, it should be an open game that features plenty of scoring.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Italy vs Belgium odds
 Italy |
 Belgium |
|
|---|---|---|
| -112 | Moneyline | +320 |
| +240 | Draw | +240 |
| Over 2.5 (+100) | Total | Under 2.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Italy vs Belgium opening odds
- Moneyline: Italy -105 | Belgium +315
- Draw: +240
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (+100) | Under 2.5 (+122)
Italy vs Belgium side and Over/Under analysis
- Italy have won their last four home matches against Belgium in all competitions.
- The Italians have scored at least two goals in their last four home matches against Belgium.
- These two national teams last met exactly three years ago in a Nations League playoff tie, where Italy came away with a 2-1 win.
Italy vs Belgium game info
| Location: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome, IT |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-10-2024 |
| Time: | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo |
| Weather: | 77F, 17 mph winds, 50% PoP |
Italy vs Belgium key injuries
Italy: No injuries to report.
Belgium: Amadou Onana DM (Out), Kevin De Bruyne AM (Out), Romelu Lukaku ST (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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