Old rivals Germany and the Netherlands meet in Berlin on Monday in the UEFA Nations League, with a place in the next round at stake. Both teams have shown improvement under new managers, but my Germany vs Netherlands predictions back the Dutch to avoid defeat.
The Dutch have a 27% win probability, with the draw at 23%, while Germany is favored at 51%.
The match kicks off Monday, Nov. 16, at 2:45 p.m. ET on FS1. Don't miss more of our free betting picks.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Germany vs Netherlands predictions
My Germany vs Netherlands top pick: Germany not to win (49% probability)
Germany have everything to play for, yet they remain in a rebuilding phase under Jurgen Klopp, having won just two of their five games so far. Defensively, the team lacks international experience at fullback, and those matchups against the Dutch wide players could decide the game.
Crysencio Summerville and Cody Gakpo offer pace and a direct goal threat, while Donyell Malen, fresh off scoring twice against Greece, brings finishing ability, intelligent movement, and even more speed. The pace of this front three could trouble Germany, especially if they can attack the central defensive pairing and create overloads. The Dutch should get something from this game, even if they don’t win.
My Germany vs Netherlands Over/Under pick: Under 3.5 goals (55% probability)
With Germany’s place in the next round of the Nations League on the line, Joshua Kimmich has described this game as a “final.” That sense of urgency should make for a tight, cagey contest, especially with neither side wanting to lose to a bitter rival.
Germany’s attacking trio, featuring Kai Havertz, played well against Serbia, but the team misses what Jamal Musiala brings. Serge Gnabry would also have been an option had he been fit. The Dutch under Xavi retain elements of Cruyff’s philosophy but also focus on winning the ball back, which could keep the score down and help them control the game.
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Germany vs Netherlands combo
Netherlands double chance — Win/Draw
Under 3.5 goals
The Dutch have the speed and firepower to trouble a German side whose fullbacks remain untested at the highest international level.
Germany vs Netherlands odds
Germany
NetherlandsOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Germany vs Netherlands
| Location | Olympiastadion, Berlin, Germany |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 16, 2026 |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Weather | Chance of showers |
Germany vs Netherlands key injuries
Germany: Serge Gnabry FWR (Out), Jamal Musiala FWR (Out)
Netherlands: Jorrel Hato DEF (Out), Jeremie Frimpong DEF (Out)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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