World champions Spain are clear favorites as they prepare to host England in the UEFA Nations League in Madrid on Sunday.
My Spain vs England predictions suggest England can upset the odds in what should be a high-scoring, entertaining fixture.
Read on for my analysis and free picks for the showdown at the Metropolitano Stadium, with kickoff set for 2:45 p.m. ET.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Spain vs England predictions
My Spain vs England top pick: Tie (23% probability)
The idea that England can avoid defeat may seem foolhardy given what happened the last time these sides met.
Spain ran out 3-2 winners in the reverse fixture at Wembley on Sept. 26 and were the better team on the night.
Yet England were a missed Harry Kane penalty away from taking a 3-1 lead in the second half and enjoyed periods of dominance from which they can draw confidence.
This time, the team news favors England. Rodri is ruled out, and without the World Cup Golden Ball winner's metronomic presence in midfield, Spain could struggle to contain England's direct attacks.
A win may be beyond the visitors, but Thomas Tuchel's players look good enough to avoid defeat. The Tie is the value play, and I'd play it up to 30%.
My Spain vs England Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 goals (61% probability)
Both teams have defensive fitness concerns, increasing the chances of a high-scoring encounter.
Spain center back Aymeric Laporte is not certain to start, while Rodri's absence will make the hosts' back four more vulnerable.
For England, center back Marc Guehi is out, and there are also doubts about the visitors' strength at fullback.
When Spain beat England 3-2 in September, the match produced 4.86 expected goals (xG), nine big chances (according to Opta's definition), and 10 shots on target.
Over 3.5 goals (39% probability) also warrants attention. I'm taking the more conservative Over 2.5 line and would play it up to 66%.
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Spain vs England combo
Tie
Both teams to score — Yes
England manager Thomas Tuchel knows his team's defense may not be strong enough to contain Spain. He'll want his players to make this an open, attack-focused game, as was the case in September.
With a shootout more likely than a defensive-minded standoff, I expect both teams to score at least once. Pairing BTTS Yes with the Tie covers the 1-1, 2-2, and 3-3 scorelines.
Spain vs England odds
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Spain vs England
| Location | Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid, Spain |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ViX, DAZN |
| Weather | Cloudy but dry conditions. |
Spain vs England key injuries
Spain: Aymeric Laporte, CB (questionable); Rodri, CM (out); Dani Olmo, AM (out); Nico Williams, LW (questionable).
England: Marc Guehi, CB (out); Ezri Konsa, CB (questionable); Reece James, RB (out); Djed Spence, LB (questionable); Bukayo Saka, RW (out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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