Turkey vs Portugal Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ronaldo Let's it Fly on Day 9 of Euro 2024

Group F is up for grabs on Saturday when Turkey and Portugal hook up at BVB Stadion in Dortmund and given the openness of Turkey's first game, our betting expert believes Portugal will let fly as much as possible.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Jun 21, 2024 • 09:04 ET • 4 min read
Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal Euro 2024
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

First place in Group F is on the line on Saturday when Turkey and Portugal meet in our Euro 2024 picks

Turkey enter off the back of a 3-1 win over Georgia and have lost just twice in their last 15 competitive matches while Portugal have won 11 straight competitive fixtures since their defeat at World Cup 2022.

Find out why my Turkey vs Portugal prediction for their Euro 2024 fixture sees Cristiano Ronaldo finding the target on Saturday, June 22. 

Turkey vs Portugal picks, predictions, and betting tips

My best bet:
Portugal Over 5.5 shots on target (-122 at Betano)

My analysis

Watching Turkey and Georgia play in their opening match of Euro 2024 was exhilarating. There was no tactical battle of possessive style, no fullbacks tucking inside to overload the midfield. None of the “modern-day” styles that have perpetrated the game.

It was simply two teams who said “Ok, you attack, then I’ll attack” and then proceeded to stick to that plan for more than 90 minutes. It was entertaining for the fans and led to plenty of shots at both ends.

Georgia put five efforts on goal on the day, a number they’d reached just twice in their previous seven competitive fixtures. And it’s a number I expect Portugal to eclipse when they face Turkey on Saturday. 

Portugal went a perfect 10-for-10 in Euro qualifying, scoring 36 goals in the process. And only twice in that span did they put fewer than six shots on target — a 1-0 win over Iceland, and a 3-0 win over Bosnia. 

Part of the reason Portugal had to leave it late was their struggle to finish. They had plenty of quality chances against Czechia, but they hit far too many of them right at the goalkeeper or put them wide.

But Portugal still managed to put eight of their 19 efforts on target, the fifth time in six competitive matches they’ve had 8+ shots on goal. And if Georgia could outperform their typical offensive output, it’s hard to see Portugal not doing the same.

Turkey’s not a side that sets up to hunker down and weather the storm, and they’re going to take the attack to Portugal. I anticipate another up-and-down contest, perhaps not as recklessly played as their fixture against Georgia. But even if they stay a bit more compact, the likes of Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes are apt to test opposing goalkeepers from range. 

I’m excited to watch what should be another fascinating match between two sides with attacking threats throughout their sides. Bank on Portugal to get 6+ shots on goal and settle in for one of the best battles of Matchday 2. 

Cristiano Ronaldo odds, prop for today

My best bet
4+ shots (-128 at Betano)

My analysis

Ronaldo has faced Turkey three times and has never put the ball in the back of the net. And if you think he doesn’t know that, then you underestimate the pettiness of one of the greatest players of his generation.

While I’m not sure he’ll find the back of the net, I do expect him to play a big role in that shot total we took for our Best Bet. One detriment to the Portuguese side is the seeming fixation of Ronaldo’s teammates to look for him when he’s in the team, rather than creating the best chance available.

Whether that’s playing in crosses rather than shooting, or forcing passes to him when they have better options, one thing it leads to is Ronaldo shooting early and often. And it’s why I’m expecting him to attempt at least four shots against Turkey.

A goal for Ronaldo would make history, as no player has ever scored in six different European Championships. Legacy means everything to CR7, and it’s something you know he wants to achieve.

In his last three competitive matches, Ronaldo has attempted 5+ shots with 24 attempts in total. He’s attempted at least five in five of his last six as well and has multiple shots on goal in all six. 

Turkey conceded four shots to Georgian striker Georges Mikautadze with one of them finding the back of the net. Look for Ronaldo to get at least four of his own on Saturday, while possibly adding a goal as well.

Turkey vs Portugal same-game parlay (SGP)

Portugal Over 5.5 shots on target

Portugal Over 1.5 offsides

Both teams to score — Yes

One thing Ronaldo does well is play off the shoulder of the last defender and make runs in behind. Unfortunately for him, he often gets caught offside. It’s a key reason why Portugal has registered 3+ offside flags in three straight competitive matches and have seen the flag go up multiple times in eight of their last 11. 

Turkish opponents have been caught offside 12 times in their last four competitive matches. I have no doubt they’ll catch the Portuguese out of position at least twice here. 

I also don’t expect either side to walk out without their net being breached. Turkey was held without a goal just once in eight qualifying matches and managed just three clean sheets in the process. Two of those came against Wales and Latvia. 

Austria put six past them in a recent friendly and Georgia should’ve had more than one goal. Meanwhile, Turkey posted the most shots and SOG in Matchday 1 and now faces a Portuguese defense with just one clean sheet in six matches including friendlies.

The style of these two teams will lead to goals, with both teams finding the back of the net.   

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Turkey vs Portugal odds

Turkey Portugal
+480 Moneyline -161
Over 2.5 (-133) Total Under 2.5 (+110)
+325 Draw +325

Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-20.

Turkey vs Portugal game info

Location: BVB Stadion, Dortmund, Germany
Date: Saturday, June 22, 2024
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Weather: Partly sunny, temps in upper 60s with slight chance of rain.

Not intended for use in MA.
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