Chelsea vs Everton Picks and Predictions: Potter's Turnaround Continues Against the Toffees

A recent run of results has rejuvenated Graham Potter and Chelsea, which is bad news for an Everton side clawing against relegation. Ahead of Saturday's late kickoff, check out our EPL picks.

Last Updated: Mar 17, 2023 12:01 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Enzo Fernandez Chelsea FC EPL
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Saturday’s final Premier League game sees Chelsea vs. Everton, with a big clash at Stamford Bridge. This feels very much like a meeting of two sides who have turned around their fortunes and are on the up, with Chelsea through to the next round in Europe and Everton looking far better under new manager Sean Dyche.

Which of the two teams will see their upward momentum continue on Saturday, and who will see their run of form come to an end? Don’t miss our Chelsea vs. Everton picks and predictions.

Chelsea vs Everton best odds

Chelsea vs Everton picks and predictions

Chelsea’s manager Graham Potter was under immense pressure, with many fans wanting him relieved of his duties but with new signings arriving and injured players returning, he seems to have had a new lease on life. They beat Dortmund home and away in the Champions League and come into this having won their last two Premier League games.

Chelsea’s form has been so impressive in recent weeks, taking apart a talented Dortmund team in the Champions League, that I’m backing them to win at halftime and full-time, with big odds of +280. 

Chelsea have scored in the first half of both of their most recent fixtures, getting early goals against both Leicester and Dortmund. Now that Graham Potter has more players back from injury and new signings more bedded in, they look like a far more complete team. The return of Ben Chilwell at left-back has been a huge boost, as has Reece James on the right, and it’s clear that having two elite-level fullbacks, so crucial to Potter’s system, has made Chelsea a far more dangerous opponent. 

Recruitment was key to Chelsea’s January and two players, in particular, have made a huge difference, Enzo Fernandez and Joao Felix. Fernandez has improved the midfield, dictating play and Joao Felix already looks like Chelsea’s key player, linking attack and defense, and it’s no surprise that he’s integral to most of the team’s most dangerous attacks.

Everton are much improved defensively but they’re still giving up a lot of possession because the midfield can’t dictate play and without Calvert-Lewin, they’re unable to rely on a striker using their strength to hold up the ball. C

Chelsea have a great chance of scoring early in this game, especially with Joao Felix pulling the strings, and if they score early I’m confident they’ll be able to hold on to the victory, most likely adding another goal, or two, in the second half.

My best bet: Chelsea halftime/fulltime (+280 at Caesars)

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Chelsea vs Everton side analysis

I’m confident in a Chelsea victory here but the moneyline price of -190 seems a little bit too short given that they are still fairly inconsistent, even if we’ve seen improvement in recent weeks. I’d rather take the bigger price, as mentioned above, which has a good chance of happening anyway if they win.

Chelsea will play in a 3-4-3, with fullbacks being key to the system, as they always are for Potter. James and Chilwell are great defensively and will be able to help protect the backline but they also are able to get up the field and contribute to attacking phases.

The backline of Wesley Fofana, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Benoit Badiashile is looking settled. I’m still not convinced by Koulibaly, who has looked shaky at times this season but Fofana and Badiashile are great additions who look like they could be key players in the team for years in advance. We’ll see Chelsea with a frontline of Kai Havertz, Mykhailio Mudryk, and Joao Felix.

Dyche’s rear-guard action will see Everton set up in a 4-5-1, looking to play defensively and hit Chelsea on the counter using the speed of the likes of Demarai Gray and Dwight McNeil. The central midfield three of Amadou Onana, Idrissa Gueye, and Abdoulaye Doucoure is a solid one, they can get forward but their strength lie in winning back the ball and breaking up opposition attacks. 

If they play well, there’s a chance they could stifle Chelsea.

Chelsea vs Everton Over/Under analysis

The books aren’t sure if we’ll see Over or Under 2.5 goals with both sides fairly close in terms of odds. I personally can’t see Everton scoring, which means we’d be relying on Chelsea. I think the reality is they’ll score two but a third is possible, so I’d lean towards backing Under 2.5 goals. The correct score of 2-0 to Chelsea is +650 if you’re inclined.

Chelsea have seen Under 2.5 goals in 61.5% of their Premier League games this season but that figure jumps to 66.7% if you only include those at home. Their last Premier League game with Over 2.5 goals at Stamford Bridge was at the start of October with the 10 games since all hitting the Under.

Everton also hit the Under regularly with 61.5% of their games on the road seeing fewer than three goals, although two of three road games under Sean Dyche have hit the Over. I’d still lean toward backing the Under here though.

Chelsea vs Everton game info

Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET

Chelsea vs Everton key injuries

Chelsea: Armando Broja STR (Out), Thiago Silva CB (Out), Reece James RB (Questionable), Edouard Mendy GK (Questionable), N’Golo Kante CM (Questionable), Cesar Azpilicueta DEF (Questionable), Mason Mount CAM (Questionable), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang STR (Questionable), Raheem Sterling FWR (Questionable).
Everton: Andros Townsend FWR (Out), Dominic Calvert-Lewin STR (Questionable), Nathan Patterson RB (Questionable).

Chelsea vs Everton recent form

Teams Last five matches
Chelsea Chelsea D-W-L-L-D
Everton Everton L-L-L-D-L

Chelsea vs Everton weather

It’ll be a dry, cloudy day in the capital with temperatures in the mid-50s.

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