Brentford vs Fulham Picks and Predictions: Mitrovic Gets Back to the Basics

There’s something about the Premier League that just hits differently on a Monday, and this week we’ve got an intriguing clash between Brentford and Fulham. These two West London clubs have had great seasons and are both starting the weekend sitting in the top half of the Premier League table.

With just four points separating the two teams, can Brentford inch closer to Fulham? Don’t miss our Brentford vs. Fulham picks and predictions for March 6.

Brentford vs Fulham best odds

Brentford vs Fulham picks and predictions

Both sides come into this matchup in reasonable form, with both having picked up two wins in their past five. They’re also very similar in terms of goals scored and conceded, with Brentford having scored one extra and given up one less, despite being four points behind Fulham.

One of the reasons that Brentford have overtaken Fulham in terms of goals has been the form of Aleksandar Mitrovic. The talismanic Serbian striker hasn't been at his best in recent weeks after initially starting the Premier League season in sensational form.

The 28-year-old has scored 11 in 19 Premier League appearances this season, averaging an impressive 4.3 shots per game. Prior to the World Cup, Mitrovic scored nine Premier League goals in 12 games but has since found the back of the net just twice in 10 games across all competitions.

Mitrovic missed two games before returning last week in the FA Cup, racking up a lone assist in his first game back. I’m confident that he will get back to the free-scoring Mitro sooner rather than later, and the +187 odds being offered on him to score against Brentford has to be taken.

He’s had a break and is now ready to dominate opposing defenders again. Mitrovic looked good in his return and given that he is Fulham’s best striker and also their penalty-taker, it’s likely we see him score again soon.

Odds of +187 imply a 34.8% chance that Mitrovic scores on Monday, which seems low for a striker with 11 goals in 19 Premier League games. If you look at xGA (Expected Goals Against), then it paints a picture of Brentford being slightly fortunate to have only given up 11 goals in 12 home games this season.

With a physical Mitrovic facing them on Monday, I really sense an opportunity to beat the odds.

My best bet: Aleksandar Mitrovic to score (+187 at bet365)

Brentford vs Fulham side analysis

In terms of picking a winner, I’d lean towards Fulham. This is especially the case, given that I see Mitrovic scoring.

One potential issue with this wager is the absence of Joao Palhinha, who will be missing the game because of suspension. Alongside Erling Haaland and Casemiro, he’s been the best signing of the season so far, as he's a dynamic midfielder who really improves Fulham both defensively and in transition. 

Fulham’s 4-2-3-1 will see Sasa Lukic slot into the midfield in place of Palhinha, alongside Harrison Reed. They’ll need to be at their best to limit Ivan Toney, who has scored seven in his past nine for Brentford. It’ll be Willian and Bobby Cordova-Reid on either side of Andreas Pereira, who’ll support Mitrovic up front and feed the big striker.

Ivan Toney is Brentford’s main man and he will start for Brentford on Monday. He’s currently awaiting the outcome of an FA investigation but we’re unsure of when he’ll get the result of that. If for any reason Toney doesn’t start this game, then consider Fulham a wager worth taking.

Supporting Toney will be Yoanne Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo at the top of the 4-3-3. The midfield will see Mathias Jensen, Christian Norgaard, and Josh Dasilva, while the backline featuring Ben Mee and Ethan Pinnock will be integral to Brentford’s chances of winning.

Brentford vs Fulham Over/Under analysis

To be honest, this is a market that I don’t want to go anywhere near with my own money.

If you do want to bet on this market, then it’s worth knowing that Brentford’s home games all season are exactly split when it comes to Over and Under, with two of their past three in the Premier League going Under 2.5.

Fulham have generally been in high-scoring games all year, with 64% of their games going Over 2.5 goals. However, that drops to 58.3% when you only consider road games in the Premier League.

If you drill into the details even more, then you can also see that all four of Fulham's away games in 2023 have seen Under 2.5 goals, with just three goals scored across all those fixtures.

Brentford vs Fulham game info

Brentford vs Fulham key injuries

Brentford: Frank Onyeka CM (Questionable), Pontus Jansson CB (Questionable).
Fulham: Neeskens Kebano FWR (Out), Tom Cairney CM (Out), Layvin Kurzawa LB (Out), Joao Palhinha CM (Out).

Brentford vs Fulham recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Brentford	D-D-W-D-W
Fulham	D-W-W-D-L

Brentford vs Fulham weather

A cloudy and overcast Monday will see temperatures drop to the high 30s at kickoff.

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