We get a “Dirty South” version of Monday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints in the Week 4 finale.
My Falcons vs. Saints prop picks peel back the layers of this NFC South showdown, giving you my best NFL picks for individual efforts on Oct. 5.
For more analysis, check out our complete Falcons vs. Saints predictions.
Best Falcons vs Saints props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Alvin Kamara 15+ receiving yards |
54% |
 Kyle Pitts 3+ receptions |
53% |
| Tyler Shough 1+ interception |
46% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Alvin Kamara 15+ receiving yards
The New Orleans Saints' running backs room is quiet these days, with injuries thinning out NOLA’s backfield options.
Veteran RB Alvin Kamara is holding it down in Week 4. Kamara may be long in the tooth, but he’s still a dual-threat option on this Saints offense, especially with how he can catch and run.
“He’s a dynamic player, as far as when you can get him in space — the things he can do, catching the ball, and those types of things,” New Orleans offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier said of Kamara.
Kamara drew six targets in his Week 2 return to action (five catches for only seven yards but had just one pass his way in the shootout loss with Las Vegas last weekend (five yards), playing behind RB1 Travis Etienne Jr.
With Etienne out Monday, Kamara’s snaps increase as does his role as a receiver, especially on third downs. Entering Week 4, Atlanta’s defense has forced the fifth most third-down snaps this season.
His MNF projections range from 14 to 27 yards through the air, while my number comes out to 18.9 receiving yards for Kamara.
Prop pick #2: Kyle Pitts 3+ receptions
If Kyle Pitts is going to snap out of his slumber to start 2026, Monday is the night.
The Atlanta Falcons tight end has just two receptions on six targets for 20 yards through three games, including going 1-for-2 for five yards with QB Michael Penix Jr. under center last Thursday.
New Orleans has struggled against rival tight ends to start the season, allowing the third-most receptions and third-most yards to the position. It’s an edge not lost on Atlanta offensive coordinator Tommy Rees.
“I need to do the best job I can of making sure that Kyle can impact games, regardless of the opponent,” Rees told reporters. “I’m going to take a lot of pride in making sure that we can get some of that, moving forward.”
That mismatch is amplified by injuries to NOLA’s linebacker corps, including top coverage LBs Carl Granderson and Pete Werner.
Pitts’ reception props have dropped from 4.5 in Week 1, and now 2.5 O/U is offering a solid return. His Week 4 projections all sit north of three catches, with a ceiling of 4.1. My number boils down to 3.6 catches from the Falcons TE.
Prop pick #3: Tyler Shough 1+ interception
New Orleans QB Tyler Shough is surprisingly among the NFL’s passing leaders after three wild games to start the 2026 campaign.
Shough has thrown on almost 64% of snaps, connecting for eight touchdowns but also three interceptions. And with the rushing game missing key pieces, the Saints will need him to shoulder the offensive load again Monday.
Shough faces a sneaky good Falcons pass defense. Atlanta, which sits No. 2 in passing success rate allowed, is generating solid pressure on the passer without blitzing much. Atlanta ranks No. 3 in pass-rush win rate at ESPN and 11th in pressures per dropback.
Shough ranks No. 5 at PFF when kept clean, but that metric sinks to 26th when pressured. His completion rate plummets to 52.8%, and two of his three INTs have come under duress. Adding to those woes is an offensive line missing pieces and ranking 23rd in pass-block win rate.
He will be hurried into bad throws, and many interception projections point toward at least one INT from NOLA’s second-year QB.
- Prop picks: 16-8, +7.48 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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