Team USA gets a shot at revenge after losing 83-76 to France in the opening game of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. This time, however, the stakes will be much, much higher — as the winner of this game will be leaving the Saitama Super Arena with a gold medal.
The Americans have stomped everyone in their path since that loss to France, and enter this final contest as double-digits Olympic betting favorites.
Will France find a way to stun the United States for the second time this tournament? Tune in for yourself at 10:30 p.m. ET to see — but keep reading below for our thoughts with our France vs. USA men’s basketball picks and predictions.
France vs USA game info
• Location: Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
• Date: Friday, August 6, 2021
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
France vs USA betting tips
- USA -12 (-110)
- Under 175.5 (-110)
Read on for complete analysis
France vs USA match odds
France: +12 (-110)
USA: -12 (-110)
Total: 175.5
Over 175.5: (-110)
Under 175.5: (-110)
France vs USA betting preview
Key injuries
France: No injuries to report.
USA: No injuries to report.
France vs USA predictions
Against the spread (ATS) pick
When these teams met in group play, the United States had a 47-37 lead at the beginning of the third quarter. France chipped away and ultimately regained the lead, but Team USA had another opportunity to put France away in the fourth. With 3:41 left in the game, Gregg Popovich’s team had a 74-67 lead.
From there, just about everything went wrong: France went on a 14-0 run and the team ultimately went on to earn a seven-point victory. Evan Fournier, who recently signed a massive deal with the New York Knicks, was the star of the show, scoring 28 points on 11-of-22 shooting from the floor.
This time around, it’s clear the oddsmakers are confident that Team USA will get back on track. Despite losing to France earlier in this very tournament, the books are comfortable enough to have the United States spotting its opponent double digits in the gold medal game. That’s a rather surprising development, but it does make the United States seem like the sharper side. And after the way Kevin Durant & Co. played against Australia last game, it’s not hard to find enough reasons to back the U.S.
While Rudy Gobert’s presence on the inside gives France a size advantage over the United States, there’s really just no stopping the U.S. when the team has it going. Team USA struggled in the first half against Australia in the semifinal, but the team ended up shooting 51.4 percent from the floor and 32.1 percent from the outside. Durant had 23 points for the U.S., coming up with a bucket whenever the team needed him. Meanwhile, Devin Booker came up huge for Team USA, too — he had 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting from the floor, showing some serious signs of life after needing some time to settle in following a tough ending in the NBA Finals.
Gobert’s rim protection is certainly big for France, but it’s hard to imagine the guards in front of him finding a way to slow down the United States on the perimeter. Team USA was humiliated after the first loss in this tournament, so the team is going to be fired up to get back out there and settle the score against France. That mentality should have these players looking for blood in this game.
So while this spread might be somewhat big, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that the U.S. will cover.
PICK: USA -12 (-110)
Second pick
These teams combined to score only 159 points when they met in group play, and this game should feature a bit more scoring than that one.
However, with the United States seemingly in a prime position to get some revenge on France, it’s important to remember that a non-competitive game has a lesser chance of going Over the total.
While this one will likely be close in the first half, we do expect to see Team USA pulling away at some point in the second. That would significantly slow the game down, and the United States’ 97-78 victory over Australia is a good example of how hard it is for a lopsided game to hit a certain number.
Both teams played pretty well offensively in that game but the two were unable to reach the 176 mark that would be needed for this game to go Over.
PICK: Under 175.5 (-110)
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