The final four in men's basketball at the 2020 Olympics is set. Debutants Slovenia, led by rising superstar Luka Doncic, will face France, who have not medaled since the 2000 games, with a trip to the final on the line.
Both teams went undefeated in group play to advance to the knockout stages and now need to win just one more game to leave Tokyo with a medal. Which European nation will secure the spot in the gold medal game? Check out our France vs. Slovenia picks and predictions for August 5.
France vs Slovenia game info
• Location: Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
• Date: Thursday, August 5, 2021
• Time: 7:00 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
France vs Slovenia betting tips
- Slovenia -2.5 (-110)
- Over 174.5 (-110)
Read on for complete analysis
France vs Slovenia match odds
France: +2.5 (-110)
Slovenia: -2.5 (-110)
Total: 174.5
Over 174.5: -110
Under 174.5: -110
France vs Slovenia betting preview
Key injuries
France: No injuries to report.
Slovenia: No injuries to report.
France vs Slovenia predictions
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Luka Doncic reaffirmed his status as a rising star in the sport in 2017, a year before he would be drafted into the NBA, by helping Slovenia to a gold medal at the EuroBasket tournament with a perfect 9-0 record. Several years and a first-ever berth in the Olympics later, Doncic remains undefeated playing for his country.
As the Olympic basketball tournament reached its knockout stages, it remained the Luka Legend show. The Slovenian phenom continued his flawless international career with a near-triple double in a quarterfinals win over Germany, finishing with 20 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds. Aside from Kevin Durant, who is leading his Team USA through the other side of the bracket, Doncic is the best player at the tournament and, along with Durant, is in a class of his own.
During the group stage, Slovenia outscored every other team, while only the United States finished with a higher point differential. With the U.S. falling to France in the first game, no team appeared more dominant than Slovenia, who went undefeated with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points, even beating Spain soundly despite only getting 12 points from Doncic.
France, who were also a perfect 3-0 in the group stage, have been strong all tournament as well on the back of a cohesive group of starters and excellent rim protection from Rudy Gobert, who thrives in international play without a three-second rule. However, even the U.S. and their lack of size would have been a better semifinal matchup than Slovenia.
Against France, Doncic and Zoran Dragic will both operate heavily in the pick-and-roll game to drag Gobert out of the paint as much as possible. No player alive is better at manipulating defenders and finding the tiniest pockets of space inside the arc than Doncic, and it will wreak havoc on France's defense in this one. During the past NBA season, Doncic averaged 27.7 points per game, but averaged 28.6 against the top-ranked Utah Jazz defense and eventual Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. Doncic has mitigated Gobert's impact previously and he will do so again.
Every big stage over the last four years has only served to grow the Luka Legend, and that means Slovenia will be fighting for a gold medal this weekend.
PICK: Slovenia -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Both Gobert and the stakes of an Olympic semifinal seem to be getting an awful lot of credit with this total, as Doncic and Slovenia have participated in high-scoring games thus far.
A poor-shooting Germany team hitting less than 40 percent of their attempts in the quarterfinals helped that game finish at just 164 points, but before that Slovenia had played to totals of 197, 218, and 182, as their defense has almost been as poor as Doncic and the offense has been spectacular.
France, meanwhile, are yet to hit 100 points in a game or concede more than 80, as the defense has continued to be the team's lifeblood. However, if Doncic and Slovenia are going to progress to the gold medal game as we like them to do, they are going to need to be pouring it in on offense, with France attempting to keep up.
Barring a dominant showing by Gobert and France, this one seems headed for the Over.
PICK: Over 174.5 (-110)
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