The Florida Panthers are a win away from a second consecutive Stanley Cup championship, and superstar Matthew Tkachuk saved his best for the final against the Edmonton Oilers.
Here are my top NHL picks for the Matthew Tkachuk odds ahead of Game 6 between the Oilers and Panthers on Tuesday, June 17.
Matthew Tkachuk player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 2.5 shots on goal
(+110) - SGP pick
Panthers moneyline
Under 6.5
Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots on goal
(+550)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Matthew Tkachuk best bet
Over 2.5 shots on goal (+120 at BET99)
Florida Panthers winger Matthew Tkachuk definitely saved his best for the Stanley Cup Final. He’s sporting a dominant 61.8 CF% at five-on-five and has recorded three or more shots in three of the five games while tallying up two goals and four assists to tie for a team-high six points.
I also value Tkachuk only hitting the net with 12 of his 31 attempts (38.7%) because he converted 49.2% of his attempts into shots during the regular season. Additionally, his 7.3 shots and 18.86 attempts per 60 minutes in the final are way above his respective 5.69 and 15.17 marks through the first three rounds of the postseason.
Those rates are much closer to Tkachuk's 9.81 shots and 19.94 attempts per 60 minutes during the regular season, too, and he also posted an even higher 10.42 shots and 21.87 attempts on home ice.
Finally, I like that Tkachuk has played limited 5-on-5 five minutes against Oilers superstar Connor McDavid (15:37), and Tkachuk has a 55.2 CF% at 5-on-5 even when lining up opposite No. 97.
Matthew Tkachuk same-game parlay
Panthers moneyline
Under 6.5
Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots on goal
The Edmonton Oilers haven’t beaten the Cats in regulation during the series, and Florida has won three of the past four, with two of the wins coming convincingly. Edmonton also trails Florida in goals, expected goals, Corsi For percentage and high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five during the series.
Florida has also received better goaltending and has the last-change advantage in Game 6 on home ice, so I don’t see Edmonton pushing the Stanley Cup Final to a Game 7.
Turning to the total, Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final was a low-event bout with just 28 shots and 2.9 expected goals at 5-on-5, and while the entire series has ended in high-scoring games with an average of 7.8 goals per, I’m expecting a second low-event contest resulting in a low-scoring finish tonight in Game 6.
Florida has also held Edmonton to just nine goals at 5-on-5 through five games, with star goalie Sergei Bobrovsky posting a sterling .931 save percentage. The Panthers have also been sound defensively at Amerant Bank Arena throughout the playoffs with just 2.4 xGA per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and 2.67 allowed per game.
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