It's a nine-game slate across the league tonight, and I've found value in my NHL player props.
Clayton Keller will stay busy offensively, while Sebastian Aho is in a prime position to keep firing pucks on net in Montreal. I also like Kirill Kaprizov to continue his hot start in front of goal, rounding out today's NHL player prop picks.
Read more in my NHL picks for Tuesday, Oct. 6.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Clayton Keller Over 0.5 assists |
51% |
 Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 SOG |
52% |
 Kirill Kaprizov anytime goal |
43% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Clayton Keller Over 0.5 assists
Play up to 56%.
Clayton Keller has been firing on all cylinders for the Utah Mammoth. He's already notched five assists in three games, cashing the Over in every contest so far.
The Mammoth are averaging 2.91 xGF/60 with him on the ice, and while it's a small sample, the underlying numbers support his production. He's also been heavily involved in Utah's scoring chances, highlighting his consistent playmaking role.
The winger will face a New Jersey Devils team that has already shown some defensive vulnerability, including allowing six goals in its last outing. With Keller driving Utah's offense and working on PP1, I like him to produce another helper tonight.
- Matchup: Mammoth vs. Devils
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.
- TV: ESPN+
Prop pick #2: Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 shots on goal
Play up to 57%.
Sebastian Aho is off to a torrid start, already scoring three times while averaging 4.0 shots on goal per game. The Finnish star has hit the Over in two of three appearances, including six shots on target against the Flyers on October 4.
Aho's role on the top line and PP1 obviously helps him rack up shots, but the underlying metrics support this pick as well. The 29-year-old is averaging 11.98 SOG per 60 minutes across all situations, while generating 16.98 individual shot attempts and 15.98 unblocked attempts per 60.
It's still a small sample, but Aho is firing the puck at a high rate early in the season. With 2.5 below his current average, I like him to clear this number again.
- Matchup: Hurricanes vs. Canadiens
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC
- TV: ESPN+
Goal scorer pick: Kirill Kaprizov anytime goal
Play up to 46%.
Kirill Kaprizov is already top-five in the NHL in goals, lighting the lamp three times through two games. He scored once in the opener before potting two more against the Bruins on October 4.
More importantly, Kaprizov is consistently getting into dangerous areas. He’s averaging 7.56 individual high-danger chances per 60 minutes, ranking second on the Minnesota Wild. He’ll face a struggling Buffalo Sabres team tonight that has already conceded nine goals through just two contests.
Kaprizov also scored once in two meetings with Buffalo last season while averaging 4.5 SOG per game. With his early finishing form and strong chance generation, I like him to find the net again tonight.
- Matchup: Wild vs Sabres
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, N.Y.
- TV: ESPN+
- Prop picks: 3-3, +2.70
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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