The Philadelphia Flyers have allowed 13 goals through three games. The floodgates should remain open against the high-powered Tampa Bay Lightning, who are 67% favorites.
My Flyers vs. Lightning predictions are expecting plenty of offense from the home team, and have circled Brayden Point as a priority target.
Let's take a closer look at my NHL picks for Monday, Oct. 5.
Flyers vs Lightning prediction: Over 5.5
I’d play Over 5.5 to 57%.
The Philadelphia Flyers were built on defense a season ago, but they’ve been abysmal through three games this year.
No team has allowed shot attempts, shots on target, or expected goals at a higher clip. They are bleeding quality and quantity, and the Tampa Bay Lightning have the starpower and high-end finishing to capitalize.
The Bolts haven’t given up a lot of shot volume, but quietly rank 27th in expected goals against per 60.
The Flyers should generate enough to keep the game competitive and push it Over the total.
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Flyers vs Lightning combo
I expect we will see goals in this game, and Tampa Bay’s star duo of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point is likely to be at the forefront of it.
Kucherov is an elite creator who averaged 1.2 assists per game when Tampa Bay was priced as -150 favorites or more last season.
Point skates with Kucherov on the top line and No. 1 power play. He’s the beneficiary of a lot of the chances Kucherov facilitates, and is yet to convert on any of his nine scoring chances thus far.
Flyers vs Lightning combo
- Over 5.5
- Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 assists
- Brayden Point anytime goal
TOP PICK
Flyers vs Lightning player prop: Brayden Point Over 0.5 points
I’m on Point to find the scoresheet up to 65%.
He is just one chance shy of Brandon Hagel for the team lead and seeing ideal usage riding shotgun with Kucherov, one of the game's truly elite playmakers.
Point is a career 18.4% finisher, so the strong shot attempt volume out of the gate is an encouraging sign.
The Flyers have allowed shot attempts and expected goals at a higher rate than anybody, and won’t have the ability to get the matchups they want on the road.
COVERS INTEL: The Flyers have allowed 13.74 expected goals and rank dead-last in xGA per game. Point won't have much trouble creating quality looks.Flyers vs Lightning goal scorer: Brayden Point
Point to score is playable to 39%.
The Flyers sit dead-last in expected goals and high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes of 5v5.
They are not playing with the structure you’d expect out of a Rick Tocchet coached team, and Point is the perfect candidate to take advantage.
Nobody on the Lightning has more high-danger chances thus far. Point’s shot volume is very concentrated from the slot, and the Flyers rank last in slot shots allowed.
Kucherov is an elite playmaker who will pick apart this struggling defense and hit Point in his spots.
- Top picks: 0-2, -2.35 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.0 units
Flyers vs Lightning odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Flyers 34% | Lightning 67%
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (55%) | Under 5.5 (46%)
- Spread: Flyers +1.5 (56%) | Lightning -1.5 (45%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Flyers vs Lightning trend
The Over is 6-3-1 in the past 10 head-to-head meetings. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Flyers vs Lightning
| Location | Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Philadelphia, The Spot |
Flyers vs Lightning latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
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